March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

See what I posted to ORH above

I’ve found this correlation to not be reliable of late.

[tavwtby]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Snows coming in like a wall, shouldn't be long now.

Just started here...

[weatherwiz]

Analyzing mesoanalysis and several tools on there I would have to think the models which have shown/come more west will end up being correct in that regard.

[TalcottWx]

that 7h fronto band is looking really really good for ORH on east as of right now.

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Wiz, that frontogenesis band will give someone feet of snow, once it pivots in it stalls right along the I95 corridor and someone from PVD to BOS and southeast will see totals near 40"

[Greg]

Look at the water loop and you'll see generally where the low will be and track.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

that 7h fronto band is looking really really good for ORH on east as of right now.

 

Jay, that radar kind of reminds me of the Blizzard of 2015, Juno

[HIPPYVALLEY]

If folks don't mind keeping obs in the other thread that would be awesome. 

[weathafella]

CMC is certainly not backing down.  Definitely ramped up from 12z.

[TalcottWx]

Time to put down the operationals and go over to mesos and nowcasting. It looks great.

[Weenie]

When will the peak of the storm hit the Boston area?

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM was def west of 12z.

[tavwtby]

Inv trough set up the Hudson?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wiz, that frontogenesis band will give someone feet of snow, once it pivots in it stalls right along the I95 corridor and someone from PVD to BOS and southeast will see totals near 40"

I'll be seeing a 40 alright. I can promise you that. 

The pivot/stall aspect is going to be really crucial...even back here across CT. I think there is a possibility this could happen across central or eastern CT and if that happens there are going to be some surprised people come tomorrow. Anyways yeah SE MA is going to get nailed. I could see some 24-30'' totals

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, weathafella said:

CMC is certainly not backing down.  Definitely ramped up from 12z.

Jerry nice to be able to finally chat with you my friend, I think the weather channel is forecasting 18-24" from Boston to Plymouth, MA and all of Cape Cod sees 24"+ now

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I'll be seeing a 40 alright. I can promise you that. 

The pivot/stall aspect is going to be really crucial...even back here across CT. I think there is a possibility this could happen across central or eastern CT and if that happens there are going to be some surprised people come tomorrow. Anyways yeah SE MA is going to get nailed. I could see some 24-30'' totals

Definitely Paul, I am so excited

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Time to put down the operationals and go over to mesos and nowcasting. It looks great.

Agree here.

I think we have all been there when we nowcasted a system going into the $hitter despite a model disparity (see first March nor easter)...this is the opposite.

 

[ORH_wxman]

03z RAP def not backing down...even better than the 02z run so far.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Jay, that radar kind of reminds me of the Blizzard of 2015, Juno

Please, no foul language. Keep it clean or you get the tag back.

[BRSno]

Doesn't this current band south of LI look better than anything the GFS has for the next few hours?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

A hair East is not a "jump East" you are crushed no matter what. 

Mind boggling what that dude’s thought process is like.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree here.

I think we have all been there when we nowcasted a system going into the $hitter despite a model disparity...this is the opposite.

 

Time to have HRRR, RAP open, compare the trends, track mesoanalysis, satellite, water vapor.

To be honest, this is my favorite part of a storm.

[ORH_wxman]

03z RPM also coming in a bit west of the 00z run.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Jerry nice to be able to finally chat with you my friend, I think the weather channel is forecasting 18-24" from Boston to Plymouth, MA and all of Cape Cod sees 24"+ now

Hey James-2005 is walking in your door!   Complete with the gfs fart while happened in that storm

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

03z RPM also coming in a bit west of the 00z run.

The HREF chucked big time too. Some really epic totals even back to C CT.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

03z RAP def not backing down...even better than the 02z run so far.

qpf map please.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CT Rain said:

The HREF chucked big time too. Some really epic totals even back to C CT.

You tossing GFS, too?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Definitely Paul, I am so excited

 

[dryslot]

0z HREF

 

[CT Rain]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You tossing GFS, too?

Yeah I guess. I mean have to nod to the mesoscale models so close in. I like the 12z euro TBH... thinking like 12:1 for ratios too?