March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[Hoth]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:40 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS is the only model that didn't up the ante, though.

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And let's not forget how it performed in Feb '13 either. Scraper the morning of. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS tries to come in and close it with a 3 run lead and takes a dump all over the mound.

Now there's 2 on and a 1 run lead...Euro has to slam it shut.

[rnaude241]

Cranky weather guy is probably drooling over the GFS

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I don't know where the east people are getting their information, latest observations were that the precip shield that broke out over eastern NY and PA was moving east, it is actually moving westward on radar, what are they thinking

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:36 AM, DavisStraight said:

Glad I bought some today, can relax tomorrow while it snows.

Welcome back James, enjoy the blizzard

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Greater Good Greylock IPA has made tonight even more enjoyable

[Semper911]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:37 AM, USCG RS said:

High West? 

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Makers Mark. Never tried High West, but I'll look for it if you recommend it.

[Amped]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:40 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS is the only model that didn't up the ante, though.

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GFS has the 700mb front 50-75 miles east of the NAM at 18hrs.   Looks like NAM just pulls the midlevel warmth further west.  I'm usually for playing it safe and splitting the difference.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:42 AM, rnaude241 said:

Cranky weather guy is probably drooling over the GFS

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Even the GFS is a big storm..nothing is a whiff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:45 AM, Amped said:

GFS has the 700mb front 50-75 miles east of the NAM at 18hrs.   Looks like NAM just pulls the midlevel warmth further west.  I'm usually for playing it safe and splitting the difference.

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I'm usually for playing it safe and tossing the GFS.

[powderfreak]

GFS just keeps going like the energizer bunny.

[USCG RS]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:44 AM, Semper911 said:

Makers Mark. Never tried High West, but I'll look for it if you recommend it.

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My brother turned me onto it. I recommend the Rendezvous version if you can find it. Campfire, though, is rather spicy and this could jive depending on your palate. 

[ORH_wxman]

No help from the Ukie...hair east of 12z run,.

[dryslot]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:34 AM, CoastalWx said:

Gfs farts in the room full of hot chicks.

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It has been very stubborn getting any of the goods past SE MA and DE Maine.

[USCG RS]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:48 AM, ORH_wxman said:

No help from the Ukie...hair east of 12z run,.

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I would therefore expect the Euro to follow suit...

[Grovelander]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:16 AM, dendrite said:

We'll meet in the middle. The 5ppd is going back after the storm. Have at it James, but don't go too crazy. lol

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Another long time Lurker here. 

Good for James. He should enjoy this..

I’v learned and am learning a lot.

 

 

 

[weatherwiz]

Look at that fronto already!

[weathafella]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:48 AM, USCG RS said:

I would therefore expect the Euro to follow suit...

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Why? 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:48 AM, USCG RS said:

I would therefore expect the Euro to follow suit...

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Euro had a crazy awesome 12z run...so if it ticked a hair east, it would still be a crazy awesome run, though maybe just a tick east. The GFS has never had a crazy awesome run in this whole storm anywhere NW of about PYM. I'll define "crazy awesome" as 18"+ totals.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:48 AM, ORH_wxman said:

No help from the Ukie...hair east of 12z run,.

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2 of the big time models too... hope that’s wrong. Globals vs mesos?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:44 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Greater Good Greylock IPA has made tonight even more enjoyable

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That stuff is strong,  NAM drinking the same brew?  

[Semper911]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:47 AM, USCG RS said:

My brother turned me onto it. I recommend the Rendezvous version if you can find it. Campfire, though, is rather spicy and this could jive depending on your palate. 

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Thanks brother, I'll look for it.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:50 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

2 of the big time models too... hope that’s wrong. Globals vs mesos?

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A hair East is not a "jump East" you are crushed no matter what. 

[Hoth]

Do we feel this is a situation where you can give the non-hydrostatics an edge vis-a-vis convection driven height rises? Or do we stick to globals to resolve the northern stream interaction?

[powderfreak]

To keep the posterity coming...

GFS 00z.  

[USCG RS]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:50 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro had a crazy awesome 12z run...so if it ticked a hair east, it would still be a crazy awesome run, though maybe just a tick east. The GFS has never had a crazy awesome run in this whole storm anywhere NW of about PYM. I'll define "crazy awesome" as 18"+ totals.

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I was referring to the Euro following the UKie correlation brother. 

With regards to the GFS, I never really have liked this model tbh. I look at it as a big picture model, however, with the finer details, it just does not have the resolution. Therefore, in a situation such as this, I tend not give it much weight. 

[DavisStraight]

Snows coming in like a wall, shouldn't be long now.

[USCG RS]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:50 AM, weathafella said:

Why? 

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See what I posted to ORH above

[weathafella]

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:50 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

2 of the big time models too... hope that’s wrong. Globals vs mesos?

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I don’t consider gfs big time for these events.   I’m pretty sure I’ve seen this behavior in all the big ones including January 2015.   Ukmet a hair east may need t make a difference actually.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS totals are actually pretty similar to RGEM totals

 

[Bigfoot]

Small soft snow here ,but good intensity so may add up,just not big flake sizes...1 hr. West of Albany and they are calling for 8-12 here until Thursday am nonstop small snow bands