March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[snowman21]

That is some kind of gradient west of about I-91

[MarkO]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Will, what do you think ratios will be for 495 belt into NE CT? 

[tavwtby]

Aly AFD talking about closed H5 low moving slowly through after the SLp lifts out, bringing additional 2-6" for the region..

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

#freejames 

Great event for eastern SNE no doubt.  I am happy with the leftovers here

leftovers are nothing to sneeze at

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Holy ****.  ~2.75" here. 26-30"+ here. 

Yup. Like 2.9" here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3km NAM in hot pursuit.

[weatherwiz]

The NAM has some insane LLJ...especially at 925mb. An extensive jet streak of >80 knots with > 90 knots at 925. Stronger than the GFS...I wonder if this is a big reason for such high QPF amounts...especially back into a good chunk of CT. What meteorological reasons sort of determine how far from the center frontogenesis banding occurs? Even looking at H7 low track...w/o looking at fronto I would guess it is east of what NAM shows. 

[Chrisrotary12]

55 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Caved on the 6-12'', eh?

Yeah. Don't feel good about it.

44 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well I see that you bent that green line so you could slip Nashua into the 10-15 zone while unceremoniously pushing me into the 5-10.  More changes are needed.

Actually I purposefully re-drew the 15-20" blue line east of where I originally had it to remove Nashua from it.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Dude, you would get wrecked with high ratio fronto verbatim. Let's hope it's not being the NAM.

Yes, I posted the 700 fronto. I’m happy this looks far enough for warning snows...playing with house money. 

[mostman]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

Will, what do you think ratios will be for 495 belt into NE CT? 

If you believe the Kuchera map, it’s about 12:1  

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, MarkO said:

Will, what do you think ratios will be for 495 belt into NE CT? 

My guess is a bit better than 10 to 1. Maybe 12 or 13 to 1? Snowgrowth should be pretty good. Most of the 550-700mb layer is right in the SGZ. If someone gets stuck in a band for a while, 16-18 to 1 for a time wouldn't shock me...that's how someone will put up 20-handle pretty easily if it happens.

[Johnno]

2 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

That is some kind of gradient west of about I-91

We’ve grown to expect 

[Baroclinic Zone]

NAM verbatim is a top 2 storm for my location since I've been here.  Still don't believe it will occur.   

[78Blizzard]

Looks just like that 18z run last night, even where the jack is in SE MA.

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Yeah. Don't feel good about it.

Actually I purposefully re-drew the 15-20" blue line east of where I originally had it to remove Nashua from it.  

I don't know my NH geography well enough...

Someone between you, me and Dendrite is going to get shafted with 4-8 while at least one of us gets 12-16

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Johnno said:

We’ve grown to expect 

Not sure why it comes as a shock but the deform goodies would be into wct and wma with that look regardless of qpf output.

[TalcottWx]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RPM coming in bonkers so far at 00z...it's been one of the more relatively tame models throughout this threat. It did have one run earlier today that brought 12-16 for most of E MA and RI but outside of that it's been a lot of 8-12 stuff. This run is changing that. 

Posting about the RPM without a map is illegal on these here forums

[ineedsnow]

Hope we see one more shift at 6z... Wont complain at all if it doesnt though

[CT Rain]

While the 12km run really went nuts - not much change from 18z to 00z on the 3km run. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Looks just like that 18z run last night, even where the jack is in SE MA.

This is way more phased. Also, Cranky must be sweating a little. That real-time cyclone tracker he'd been pointing to as sending the low way east has been backing northwest hard towards Hatteras. 

[DavisStraight]

Ray was right, we'll see 30" somewhere, maybe a bit more

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

Posting about the RPM without a map is illegal on these here forums

It wasn't out far eniough yet to really warrant a clown map...but I was gonna post one for Jerry since he will have a withdrawal episode without it

 

 

[rnaude241]

I assume some of that NAM qpf is rain down here but even still that would be a top 2-3 storm for me. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not sure why it comes as a shock but the deform goodies would be into wct and wma with that look regardless of qpf output.

Watch the radar tonight and we should start to get a sense of where that western band sets up and stays.  One of my faves was the Octobomb inland band that went from well sw of MPM pit 1 through wma all of snh and then into me.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You have been all over this Tippy! Let's see how the rest of the suite does.

I don't know how else to put this ... but it appears to me the models simply can't handle this system.

It seems to be correcting west at < 12 hours on every cycle ...but ...soon as it gets to 15... the lows relocate way out at sea, only to correct west when that next run makes that 18 hour the 12...

see the pattern... It's like this thing is going to close in on a BM transit in the models, AS it is happening.  That's what it's seems like to me this hour.

"if" something like that were to rein true, then you got issue back toward NYC and ALB where I'm not sure people would be sufficiently warned.  Let alone... what the hell is happening on the eastern NE coastal plain in a situation like that!  jesus christ.

Also, presently, WPC's surface low is west already (by a little) of these model fixes from 12z and 18z for 12 and 6 hours out, respectively - not sure if that's part and parcel of the above concern. 

Also, national radar scope/loop shows a clear pivot point has evolved near the SE Jersey coast, with moderate snow now flashed over in the MA...

The observation et al don't strike me as a system charging straight out to the Flemmish Cap.

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yup.

 Dendrite and you sharing the Crown?

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Watch the radar tonight and we should start to get a sense of where that western band sets up and stays.  One of my faves was the Octobomb inland band that went from well sw of MPM pit 1 through wma all of snh and then into me.

It was right over Petes keister

[DomNH]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I don't know my NH geography well enough...

Someone between you, me and Dendrite is going to get shafted with 4-8 while at least one of us gets1-16

This has ASH screwgie written all over it, and I mean all over it. That surface track screams MLM west with CCB east. 

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It wasn't out far eniough yet to really warrant a clown map...but I was gonna post one for Jerry since he will have a withdrawal episode without it

 

 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

NAM verbatim is a top 2 storm for my location since I've been here.  Still don't believe it will occur.   

If you take the typical 1/3 off how does it stand up?