March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Hints?

#stateofemergency

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

#stateofemergency

Danger?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Danger?

Not in Tolland

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

#stateofemergency

#someonesgetting30

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

#someonesgetting30

That early March event is is haunting me....that was a heinous bust that I don't want to repeat.....though it would probably be the other direction, not rain this time.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

#someonesgetting30

I'd say 30-40" in one of those deformation bands and another zone of that amount across eastern MA, from Cape Cod to Cape Ann

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not in Tolland

I have a strong suspicion you take your totals way way up over Central areas 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

#someonesgetting30

[JBinStoughton]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

If you’re 30 I should at least be good for 24 lol.  

[rnaude241]

I wonder who is going to get 16" and say "what a bust"!

[CT Rain]

33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

hmmm...I took screen shots of what I was looking at. Maybe I misinterpret the SGZ on bufkit (I still don't know if I fully understand the purple and yellow contours...even though people have told me...I just forget...need to write it down). 

But what I interpreted was how the SGZ seemed to decrease (slope down to the left) that this meant the SGZ was lowering below the desired height (12K-18K). -15C intersects which is great and plenty of RH within the zone...what I meant by dry was just the look on the skew-t's...though GFS seemed fully saturated.

 

  

Wiz - the red lines are omega and the purple/yellow lines are for -10 to -20c and -12c to -18c, respectively. As the temperature profile changes those lines will move up or down. We care about -12c to -18c... it doesn't matter what height those are above the ground (doesn't matter if it's 6,000 feet up to 18,000 feet up if it's moist and you have vertical motion). 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I would say take James's 5 P.P.D away for 24 hrs so he can enjoy this like the weenie he is

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

#someonesgetting30

.com or .org?

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Cranky means well, he is just slanted this storm because he guessed wrong, the storm is not moving east, if anything it is slowing down to a crawl currently as modeled way south of the benchmark, bands are already on our doorstep but we have pretty high dew point depressions to overcome before snow starts around 12am, latest GFS all snow, the latest HRRR is all snow to start a little mix with rain at the brunt of the storm passing to our east.  This is a cold storm, a cold atmosphere, everywhere I look the 850mb temps are around -6C to -12C, 925mb a little warmer than that, but the boundary layer issues will be overcome in the first few hours of heavy snows, as they occur before sunrise and planting a nice sound foundation of snow on the pavement will offset the warm sun angle non sense in March.  Also heavy snowfall rates could exceed 2"/hour maybe eclipse the Blizzard of 2005 in terms of heavy snowfall rates we received on Cape in that blizzard, and longevity of the bands could rival the 2015 Blizzard, in terms of ferocity, this storm will beat out those two any day of the week, with a pressure as low as 962mb in some regards to modeling as it passes east of Chatham, MA we could be looking at feet of snow accumulating over the Cape Cod and Dukes county.  Blizzard warning, I think NWS is conservative still, latest 18z GFS had no problems in my estimation, it brought almost 30" of snow to Cape Cod, with the 40-60" max just east of the Outer Cape.  Hurricane force wind gust likely 70-80mph is likely on the outer Cape and Nantucket.  This is the beast we measure all our snow by, the benchmark storm is coming, I can feel it in the air outside the house, it is rocking from the ENE and the air is cooling rapidly along with moistening rapidly

I salute you. 

[CT Rain]

Tears in Tolland? 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, rnaude241 said:

I wonder who is going to get 16" and say "what a bust"!

There's always one jackwagon

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I salute you. 

Wow, 40-60" maxes over the ocean. 

[Hoth]

15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Cranky means well, he is just slanted this storm because he guessed wrong, the storm is not moving east, if anything it is slowing down to a crawl currently as modeled way south of the benchmark, bands are already on our doorstep but we have pretty high dew point depressions to overcome before snow starts around 12am, latest GFS all snow, the latest HRRR is all snow to start a little mix with rain at the brunt of the storm passing to our east.  This is a cold storm, a cold atmosphere, everywhere I look the 850mb temps are around -6C to -12C, 925mb a little warmer than that, but the boundary layer issues will be overcome in the first few hours of heavy snows, as they occur before sunrise and planting a nice sound foundation of snow on the pavement will offset the warm sun angle non sense in March.  Also heavy snowfall rates could exceed 2"/hour maybe eclipse the Blizzard of 2005 in terms of heavy snowfall rates we received on Cape in that blizzard, and longevity of the bands could rival the 2015 Blizzard, in terms of ferocity, this storm will beat out those two any day of the week, with a pressure as low as 962mb in some regards to modeling as it passes east of Chatham, MA we could be looking at feet of snow accumulating over the Cape Cod and Dukes county.  Blizzard warning, I think NWS is conservative still, latest 18z GFS had no problems in my estimation, it brought almost 30" of snow to Cape Cod, with the 40-60" max just east of the Outer Cape.  Hurricane force wind gust likely 70-80mph is likely on the outer Cape and Nantucket.  This is the beast we measure all our snow by, the benchmark storm is coming, I can feel it in the air outside the house, it is rocking from the ENE and the air is cooling rapidly along with moistening rapidly

Have fun, James. Gonna be memorable out there for sure.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Tears in Tolland? 

That’s one hour of a 24 hour storm 

[rnaude241]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

Wow, 40-60" maxes over the ocean. 

So close to something historic. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, amarshall said:

We lost all our trees last week

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

Man last thing we need especially you guys. My son in law has worked 16 hr shifts for 10 days in a row.  Snow is cool and all until it's not. On a brighter note there might be some snow left Sunday when I get to SR

[78Blizzard]

36 minutes ago, Hoth said:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northamerica-08-48-1-100-1&checked=map

You can see in that water vapor imagery the blocking high up around Labrador that is what is going to drive this NW after it gets a bit past our latitude, and could be a factor in stalling it for a time south of us.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Breathe James, breathe brother....

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Tears in Tolland? 

How come you didn’t post this of 2-3” an hour over Tolland? Worried about the valley snow hole on all guidance,

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Have fun, James. Gonna be memorable out there for sure.

I will you know it, I got first shift with Dad plowing

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

Wow, 40-60" maxes over the ocean. 

Yes, according to the latest GFS there are maxes of QPF all over the ocean during these types of storms, but the latest run showed that max about 10 miles off of Wellfleet, MA

Just now, rnaude241 said:

So close to something historic. 

This will be for my area, surpassing the last two monsters we got, I think we eclipse 35" here in Harwich, MA and I promise no slanting my yardstick

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would say take James's 5 P.P.D away for 24 hrs so he can enjoy this like the weenie he is

If it's to be done, it's done at the Admin level.  Mods don't have that ability anymore.

[Roger Smith]

Someone was asking for a satellite animation ...

https://weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=goes&area=ecan&type=1070

You can adjust start time to get as long a loop as you want. Also this link should update to newer end times.

Spot the elongated center from east of Hatteras northeast to about 36N 73W (est 990 mb).

The upper lows are visible here, one east of SC and one near central Lake Huron.

===============================================================================

I am expecting this cyclone to continue a slow northeast motion overnight with likely twin center formation continuing to around 41N 67W (leading) and 39.5N 69.5W (trailing). There may be a period of stalling or slow north to NNW motion tomorrow mid-day to evening then resuming a northeast drift.

If any model error occurs it is likely to be a deeper 500 mb low over the Gulf of Maine or a faster phase of the two upper lows near NYC. Either of those would add 4-8" additional snow to current forecasts. 

My guesses are ... max 24-32" south of BOS (centered on Taunton-Plymouth) and 20 to 30" BOS to PWM to BGR into w NB, 15 to 24" Cape (east of max) and  also west of coastal strip as far as central MA into e CT, gradual reduction further west to 2-4" NYC and ALB. About 10-15" in most of VT and 15-25" in most of NH/ME not in the higher coastal strip amounts.

[MarkO]

3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Wow, 40-60" maxes over the ocean. 

boat trip!

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

You can see in that water vapor imagery the blocking high up around Labrador that is what is going to drive this NW after it gets a bit past our latitude, and could be a factor in stalling it for a time south of us.

It's a fascinating picture, the pumped up PNA, the block, the nosing in northern stream, the incipient baroclinic leaf. Beautiful stuff. Can't wait to see what it looks like tomorrow!

[8611Blizz]

21 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Cranky means well, he is just slanted this storm because he guessed wrong, the storm is not moving east, if anything it is slowing down to a crawl currently as modeled way south of the benchmark, bands are already on our doorstep but we have pretty high dew point depressions to overcome before snow starts around 12am, latest GFS all snow, the latest HRRR is all snow to start a little mix with rain at the brunt of the storm passing to our east.  This is a cold storm, a cold atmosphere, everywhere I look the 850mb temps are around -6C to -12C, 925mb a little warmer than that, but the boundary layer issues will be overcome in the first few hours of heavy snows, as they occur before sunrise and planting a nice sound foundation of snow on the pavement will offset the warm sun angle non sense in March.  Also heavy snowfall rates could exceed 2"/hour maybe eclipse the Blizzard of 2005 in terms of heavy snowfall rates we received on Cape in that blizzard, and longevity of the bands could rival the 2015 Blizzard, in terms of ferocity, this storm will beat out those two any day of the week, with a pressure as low as 962mb in some regards to modeling as it passes east of Chatham, MA we could be looking at feet of snow accumulating over the Cape Cod and Dukes county.  Blizzard warning, I think NWS is conservative still, latest 18z GFS had no problems in my estimation, it brought almost 30" of snow to Cape Cod, with the 40-60" max just east of the Outer Cape.  Hurricane force wind gust likely 70-80mph is likely on the outer Cape and Nantucket.  This is the beast we measure all our snow by, the benchmark storm is coming, I can feel it in the air outside the house, it is rocking from the ENE and the air is cooling rapidly along with moistening rapidly

That is some weather porn right there.  James will be using the snow maps from this on those lonely nights on the cape...