March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[BRSno]

Gotta feel for the DC folks. This one was theirs for a few runs lol

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

its free, great for a quick look at omega in the dgz

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, Weenie said:

Where can I find a loop?

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northamerica-08-48-1-100-1&checked=map

[rnaude241]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

22z HRRR is great down this way.  18-20" thru runs end and still going.  Looks like that run would have been good for 24"+.

Looks great! 

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, ajisai said:

Is the guy out in Logan still slant sticking? lol

He's negative sticking 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

woah...is that a free or pay site? this is cool (no pun intended)

Doesn’t look much different from your bufkit ones. That IJD image is awesome. 30 microbars smack in the middle of the DGZ. 10-15ubars is pretty decent too. That GFS one for IJD is a little meh. I’ll agree on that. 

[weathafella]

HRRR and RAP are locked and loaded.   Wow!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

17 minutes ago, Weenie said:

Cranky is saying that the fact that the trof is sweeping and not digging and the fact that the low is racing ENE means that the Eastern guidance will win out. What does the forum think?

Every other post for 5 days has been “low and away” or east this east that.

It’s weird, especially in the face of current guidance 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Doesn’t look much different from your bufkit ones. That IJD image is awesome. 30 microbars smack in the middle of the DGZ. 10-15ubars is pretty decent too. That GFS one for IJD is a little meh. I’ll agree on that. 

IJD certainly looks real solid. I think my concern with this back across CT is just how to forecast this b/c this is really all about the banding here and there is going to be some crazy gradients. Determining where the band sets up, how narrow/wide the band is, and how it propagates determines what we see. I think outside of the band there will be issues with good snow rates/snow growth. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Every other post for 5 days has been “low and away” or east this east that.

It’s weird, especially in the face of current guidance 

I don't recall Captain Smith jumping into the first available lifeboat.

[forkyfork]

32 ku's 1958-pd2. at least 19 since

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Every other post for 5 days has been “low and away” or east this east that.

It’s weird, especially in the face of current guidance 

Meh, conviction sometimes overrides evidence. I'm more interested to see how he backpedals if he's wrong.

[ROOSTA]

With blocking Teleconnections, -LW, -Hgts...whatever, which ever way described. Never ever get complacent!
Good-luck to all!   

[dryslot]

21 minutes ago, Weenie said:

Where can I find a loop?

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-southeast-08-48-1-100-1&checked=map

[BRSno]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

32 ku's 1958-pd2. at least 19 since

When was PD2?

[Hoth]

-6+ sd 850 u-wind on the 12z GFS. Don't see 18z yet.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, BRSno said:

When was PD2?

President's Day

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

President's Day

'03

[weathafella]

PD2 was Presidents’ Day 2003

[40/70 Benchmark]

PD II was 2003.

[TalcottWx]

Looks like the deform band is starting to inch closer and closer to ORH on guidance, lol.

[BRSno]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

'03

Thanks! I moved to Boston in '06 so not very familiar with the storms of yore. 

[TalcottWx]

Just now, BRSno said:

Thanks! I move to Boston in '06 so not very familiar with the storms of yore. 

Hell, I didn't have a clue when it was.

[78Blizzard]

32 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

22z HRRR is great down this way.  18-20" thru runs end and still going.  Looks like that run would have been good for 24"+.

That run really amped up from the 21z run.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Cranky means well, he is just slanted this storm because he guessed wrong, the storm is not moving east, if anything it is slowing down to a crawl currently as modeled way south of the benchmark, bands are already on our doorstep but we have pretty high dew point depressions to overcome before snow starts around 12am, latest GFS all snow, the latest HRRR is all snow to start a little mix with rain at the brunt of the storm passing to our east.  This is a cold storm, a cold atmosphere, everywhere I look the 850mb temps are around -6C to -12C, 925mb a little warmer than that, but the boundary layer issues will be overcome in the first few hours of heavy snows, as they occur before sunrise and planting a nice sound foundation of snow on the pavement will offset the warm sun angle non sense in March.  Also heavy snowfall rates could exceed 2"/hour maybe eclipse the Blizzard of 2005 in terms of heavy snowfall rates we received on Cape in that blizzard, and longevity of the bands could rival the 2015 Blizzard, in terms of ferocity, this storm will beat out those two any day of the week, with a pressure as low as 962mb in some regards to modeling as it passes east of Chatham, MA we could be looking at feet of snow accumulating over the Cape Cod and Dukes county.  Blizzard warning, I think NWS is conservative still, latest 18z GFS had no problems in my estimation, it brought almost 30" of snow to Cape Cod, with the 40-60" max just east of the Outer Cape.  Hurricane force wind gust likely 70-80mph is likely on the outer Cape and Nantucket.  This is the beast we measure all our snow by, the benchmark storm is coming, I can feel it in the air outside the house, it is rocking from the ENE and the air is cooling rapidly along with moistening rapidly

[WeathermanB]

How are you New England folks doing up there hi lol

[TalcottWx]

The early meso models are really beefy. But.. they're early.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Looks like the deform band is starting to inch closer and closer to ORH on guidance, lol.

Gonna wait for the NAM before publishing.. have the Final Call all set...but wanna see the "whites" of 00z eyes..

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna wait for the NAM before publishing.. have the Final Call all set...but wanna see the "whites" of 00z eyes..

Hints?

[Baroclinic Zone]

All I can say to the RAP is, DAMN.....

Thru runs end 22-24" here and still pounding.