March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[WintersComing]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

Would a phase more or less guarantee that the storm slows down? Would phasing come with any other advantages?  

Phasing tends to pull the lead wave back a bit more as well as the precip etc.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

What a great storm for everyone in the whole New England forum.  12" for everyone till you get into the NYC metro.  Even the islands score.  Doesn't happen often for sure, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy!

Codfish will find a way to get 6". 

[WintersComing]

Lack of phasing also tends to cause the lead wave to get pushed out to sea.

[Baroclinic Zone]

EPS probabilities upped some too.

[dryslot]

That 15z SREF run backed the 1.75"+ back to the west up this way........fwiw

09z

15z

 

[JC-CT]

There is that kicker in the northern stream that is still NW of lake winnipeg that models will not have a good handle on. It seems like that one is coming in pretty hot and accelerating the northern stream.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Looks like snow on top of snow as my house is still 100% snow covered. Alot melted today with the temperature up to 45F.

WU has 7" forecasted.

Crapuweather has 6-10"

NWS has 8-12"

[Sugarloaf1989]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Codfish will find a way to get 0.6". 

FYP

[Baroclinic Zone]

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

There is that kicker in the northern stream that is still NW of lake winnipeg that models will not have a good handle on. It seems like that one is coming in pretty hot and accelerating the northern stream.

Looks at least a couple hours ahead of the 12z NAM's schedule

[Roger Smith]

The models have an awkward look to the interaction between GL ULL and coastal ULL around 24-30h, the elongated unified version may turn out more as a rapid domination of the coastal meaning that its heights would drop faster than shown. This could cause the deep surface low to stall or even loop (counter-clockwise) in the Gulf of Maine. 

If something like that happens, 20 to 35 inch amounts are very likely in the coastal strip. If it goes the way we are being shown so far, still could be 16 to 28 inch amounts. 

[ariof]

54 minutes ago, BRSno said:

I have to catch a connection to Beijing in Detroit at 1pm Wed. Hope I can catch a flight out or my aircraft at least comes in on Wed morning. 

Start driving now.

Or call the airline. DL is actually flying extra sections out tonight to get the planes out (UA and AA seem to just be canceling afternoon inbounds tonight). You would probably have to overnight in at DTW, the airline might help out if you can convince the you then won't be screwing things up on Wednesday. (There will be nothing on the ground at Logan tonight, and nothing flying tomorrow at all. (The Jan 4 storm was similar: nothing flew.)

Without any planes on the ground, you're banking on 1337, the 9 a.m. flight, to be a) not canceled, 2) on time and c) not so full that you can't get on or you're dealing with IDBs. If you're ticketed in 1337, you could take your chances. Otherwise, be prepared to wait a day or try to get out tonight.

 

(a, 2, c because b+) kept giving me a smiley)

[dendrite]

Be careful comparing WV to modeled H5 vorticity...it isn’t totally apples to apples.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Be careful comparing WV to modeled H5 vorticity...it isn’t totally apples to apples.

Yes. 

[BRSno]

17 minutes ago, ariof said:

Start driving now.

Or call the airline. DL is actually flying extra sections out tonight to get the planes out (UA and AA seem to just be canceling afternoon inbounds tonight). You would probably have to overnight in at DTW, the airline might help out if you can convince the you then won't be screwing things up on Wednesday. (There will be nothing on the ground at Logan tonight, and nothing flying tomorrow at all. (The Jan 4 storm was similar: nothing flew.)

Without any planes on the ground, you're banking on 1337, the 9 a.m. flight, to be a) not canceled, 2) on time and c) not so full that you can't get on or you're dealing with IDBs. If you're ticketed in 1337, you could take your chances. Otherwise, be prepared to wait a day or try to get out tonight.

 

(a, 2, c because b+) kept giving me a smiley)

Def can't fly out tonight to DTW, nor can I drive there. So I'll either have to postpone it for Thurs or try my luck on Wed.

This is super helpful though, thanks a ton!

Oddly enough they haven't canceled the last BOS-DTW tomorrow.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Schools cancelled already around here... if some of those 20”+ amounts verify... you can prob kiss Wednesday goodbye too.

[Spanks45]

Is it just my weenie eyes or did the nam just doing something interesting?

[Typhoon Tip]

Right ...and despite the WV obs... the 18z NAM shows less N/stream phase at 15 hours ... so, going against the grain a bit perhaps.

[MarkO]

Convective feedback on the NAM, wtf??? Thinking the surface low sure as hell ain't going to do that. 

[tavwtby]

Based off radar, perhaps an obs thread is warranted? It's pretty close to go time

[JC-CT]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Be careful comparing WV to modeled H5 vorticity...it isn’t totally apples to apples.

Appreciate the guidance, would you mind explaining a bit?

[WintersComing]

NAM looks like its drunk

[CoolMike]

Yeah - never seen a modeled SLP do that before.  Its like fujiwhara-ing about an invisible secondary low.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Tossed.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, CoolMike said:

Yeah - never seen a modeled SLP do that before.  Its like fujiwhara-ing about an invisible secondary low.

That could be the stall we have been looking for.

[weathafella]

We shellack 

[JC-CT]

holy mfck'g fronto lol

[weathafella]

More robust for EMA vs 12z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

See nothing wrong there, in fact it looks better for you clowns out east. Slower and wants to stall. Congrats.

[WintersComing]

Just when we were hoping for a little consensus we get.....NAM'ed