March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The northern stream vort has essentially caught the southern stream one......feel like I need one of Tip's head spinning posts about what this means.

we need to see if they make love or make war

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That, combined with water vapor imagery that sure as heck seems to show that northern s/w digging hard, yeah I won't be surprised with adjustments continuing, albeit in smaller form.

Would be a massive model failure.

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Thoughts on Middletown/Portland area?

6-12?

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The northern stream vort has essentially caught the southern stream one......feel like I need one of Tip's head spinning posts about what this means.

Spin away!! 

 

[Buddy1987]

@RUNNAWAYICEBERG I wouldn't give up on this one yet bro. Could easily see you guys getting 6-8''. That'd be a win in my book. Radar looks sweet southwest of you. We picked up 5'' in VA just from a dying ULL that was the original primary.

[dryslot]

I think this ones holds a few more surprises then some think, That was close to trying to go full phase that run, If that actually happens, Watch out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wouldn't sleep on this...even in W CT.

[Ginx snewx]

yea last time I saw this in EMA was Jan 05, geezuz

[wxeyeNH]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... buddy of mine just said "Kuchera" was 30" over SE zones... 18 out to Worceter

Here you go...  Euro 12Z Kuchera

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The northern stream vort has essentially caught the southern stream one......feel like I need one of Tip's head spinning posts about what this means.

Does it not look like it's just pouring in the backside of the southern stream? Doesn't look like a kicker to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Post the 10:1 map...thanks.

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't sleep on this...even in W CT.

Ya I think all the pieces are there for the boom.....models up until the Euro just haven't been able to connect the dots.

[wxeyeNH]

What a great storm for everyone in the whole New England forum.  12" for everyone till you get into the NYC metro.  Even the islands score.  Doesn't happen often for sure, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy!

[tunafish]

[JBinStoughton]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Here you go...  Euro 12Z Kuchera

Please!

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Post the 10:1 map...thanks.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I mentioned 3' late last night....haven't seen anything to engender thoughts of straying from that.

There are going to plenty of arrows on tonight's map.

Maybe the most robust one I have ever made.

[wxeyeNH]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Post the 10:1 map...thanks.

Here you go Ray!

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

What a great storm for everyone in the whole New England forum.  12" for everyone till you get into the NYC metro.  Even the islands score.  Doesn't happen often for sure, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy!

Seems more promising with this Euro run but I'm holding back my chubby until I see a couple more models fall in line.  The Euro hasn't been the "take that to the bank" model as of lately.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The northern stream vort has essentially caught the southern stream one......feel like I need one of Tip's head spinning posts about what this means.

Ha ha ... you know what's going on ...

My deal is I just like babbling about it.   

I will add.. the N/stream mechanics have been partially merging vorticity fields in the guidance' but then... somehow, ejecting it back out like it got a piece of rotten meat half way down it's gullet and decided it didn't like the taste and spit it back out toward NS...  

Yet another metapor, usually objects can't get back outside the "event horrizon" once they've crossed that far over that critical boundary/entered the gravity well so to speaking. 

Anyway, I would have thought a purer phase given the overall synoptic evolution... and I'm a little worried that the whole mess was/is just a little too complex even for the conceit of these modern technological marvels of weather modeling.  

So babble aside... you basically nailed it - the N/stream vorticiity is already engaging the southern stream (so it seems...) and that's precarious.  Subsequently, be unusual to share space and then suddenly "de" share space

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned 3' late last night....haven't seen anything to engender thoughts of straying for that.

There are going to plenty of arrows on tonight's map.

Maybe the most robust one I have ever made.

Any chance you could splash some of your robustness on me? lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Any chance you could splash some of your robustness on me? lol

Yikes.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Seems more promising with this Euro run but I'm holding back my chubby until I see a couple more models fall in line.  The Euro hasn't been the "take that to the bank" model as of lately.

 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha ... you know what's going on ...

My deal is I just like babbling about it.   

I will add.. the N/stream mechanics have been partially merging vorticity fields in the guidance' but then... somehow, ejecting it back out like it got a piece of rotten meat half way down it's gullet and decided it didn't like the taste and spit it back out toward NS...  

Yet another metapor, usually objects can't get back outside the "event horrizon" once they've crossed that far over that critical boundary/entered the gravity well so to speaking. 

Anyway, I would have thought a purer phase given the overall synoptic evolution... and I'm a little worried that the whole mess was/is just a little too complex even for the conceit of these modern technological marvels of weather modeling.  

So babble aside... you basically nailed it - the N/stream vorticiity is already engaging the southern stream (so it seems...) and that's a precarious.  Subsequently, be unusual to share space and then suddenly "de" share space

ironic on this date we discuss triple phasers

[Baroclinic Zone]

[WeatherX]

Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-northeast-08-48-1-100-1&checked=map

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yikes.

Come on in the waters warm 

[Spanks45]

18 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Nice. Western & Central CT don't sleep on this one. 

I was wondering if this was one of those situations where this area could pull 6-10 inches even though most areas see generally 3-6?

[Angry cloud]

It means along with the winter storm warnings, it should also include erections  lasting over 4 hours warning as well. 

 

 

[Zeus]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Zeus, get naked

A customer!

I accept PayPal and Venmo, and am known not only for my discretion but also my cleanliness. Not a drop will hit the floor!

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, noheat said:

It means along with the winter storm warnings, it should also include erections  lasting over 4 hours warning as well. 

 

 

First post checks out.