March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[HoarfrostHubb]

Blizzard warnings hoisted

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1159 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018


MAZ007-018-019-021>023-130000-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.W.0007.180313T0300Z-180314T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.W.0002.180313T0300Z-180314T0000Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Brockton, Plymouth,
Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, and Vineyard Haven
1159 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Winds gusting as high as 65
  mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant
  drifting of the snow is likely. Total snow accumulations of 10
  to 18 inches with localized 20 inch amounts possible.

* WHERE...Coastal Essex County, Plymouth County, Cape Cod and
  Marthas Vineyard.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very dangerous with 1 to 3
  inch per hour snowfall rates at times and significantly impact
  the morning commute. The Tuesday afternoon commute is also
  expected to be impacted. Wet snow and strong winds will result
  in some power outages and tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you.  If you get
stranded, stay with your vehicle.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Guess what model still sucks? The gfs

 According to this forum every model sucks and even the euro " ain't what it used to be".  

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CJ setup?

I don't think so. Not a drastic temp contrast and everything else will override any exhaust from that.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 According to this forum every model sucks and even the euro " ain't what it used to be".  

 

NOGAPS!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It’s been really nice watching this from the outside, never invested. Stress free. Now I know what PF felt like from 2010-2016. 

The deform band looks pretty good for CCT though, on most guidance, with the slight nw ticks. Near the CF, however, should see many 20 spots. Congrats Taunton to Weymouth, 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't think so. Not a drastic temp contrast and everything else will override any exhaust from that.

No, I mean CCB confined to those areas.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been really nice watching this from the outside, never invested. Stress free. Now I know what PF felt like from 2010-2016. 

The deform band looks pretty good for CCT though, on most guidance, with the slight nw ticks. Near the CF, however, should see many 20 spots. Congrats Taunton to Weymouth, 

It's a much easier pill to swallow when you've just put up a double digit snow.

[Chrisrotary12]

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Corn on the cobb or corn in the crap? We shall see.

That's the same thing (eventually) right?  Or is that the joke?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'm certainly a little more encouraged that this system won't have as poor snow growth here as last week. The slp  being so far east might actually benefit this area.

[wxsniss]

Logan will be just as close to criteria as areas on north shore... surprised Blizzard Warning does include Boston

[SouthCoastMA]

The 12z Herpes is a big hit too. Better than 6z, which has been a running theme

[Chrisrotary12]

Is it just me or is the northern stream vort a lot further southwest of where it's modeled to be?

 

[NeonPeon]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats Peon on Narry Bay on the GFS

If a model is going to give me <6" leading up to a major storm, let it be the GFS.

There's enough model support, common sense, and war wounds saying you don't want to be just outside of the heavy band over taunton.  Not going to stop me mysteriously waking up at 3am and peering out the windows to see though.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is it just me or is the northern stream vort a lot further southwest of where it's modeled to be?

I think so too, models are definitely struggling with it.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I mean CCB confined to those areas.

Close. If the models tickle west again, it's into your fanny. I feel like it gets into 128. 

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is it just me or is the northern stream vort a lot further southwest of where it's modeled to be?

 

Not sure I would say a lot but does look to be a little.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is it just me or is the northern stream vort a lot further southwest of where it's modeled to be?

 

Sure looks it.

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is it just me or is the northern stream vort a lot further southwest of where it's modeled to be?

 

I have been saying this since last night, but figured it was just my weenie hallucination.

[BRSno]

They always leave BOS out of the Blizzard Warnings until the last minute.

[OceanStWx]

There’s always a bit of a caution flag, because models do a pretty poor job of handling ridge building ahead of East Coast cyclogenesis.

It’s why the NW trend sometimes seems like it won’t be denied.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Hoth said:

I have been saying this since last night, but figured it was just my weenie hallucination.

Yeah.  You have been on top of the WV loops.  Let’s see how this pans out.  Low expectations here

[bobbutts]

Taking the under on 10-14" with 18" locally here.  Seems like only the NAM supports those kinds of numbers.

I'll be rooting against my forecast though, rather have the snow than be right.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

There’s always a bit of a caution flag, because models do a pretty poor job of handling ridge building ahead of East Coast cyclogenesis.

It’s why the NW trend sometimes seems like it won’t be denied.

convection to the south of me, vortmaxes to the north, here I am, stuck in the middle with you

[ROOSTA]

SREF- some members are in the 24-30" range for SE MA.

Would be nice if "B" conditions verified more widespread then having to search for the one or two that came close.   

______
How spoiled folks have become. Prior to '78 how rare an 12-18" snowfall was, droughts during the '60's a footer was jaw-dropping. Today it's expected....umm. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Taking the under on 10-14" with 18" locally here.  Seems like only the NAM supports those kinds of numbers.

I'll be rooting against my forecast though, rather have the snow than be right.

Also, that range and local lolli is an average of the whole WSW segment. So it could be all of NH for all I know.

[Lava Rock]

15 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Logan will be just as close to criteria as areas on north shore... surprised Blizzard Warning does include Boston

Wondering if my wife's flight into BOS tomorrow at 130pm will be cancelled.

[kdxken]

We need this 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/03/12/this-storm-sounds-bad-the-great-blizzard-march-was-far-worse/xTFUSaFDII3AmEwCpJzGyI/story.html

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

We need this 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/03/12/this-storm-sounds-bad-the-great-blizzard-march-was-far-worse/xTFUSaFDII3AmEwCpJzGyI/story.html

No screwjob for codfishsnowman in that storm. That was a doozy in the CT River valley. 

[wxsniss]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Wondering if my wife's flight into BOS tomorrow at 130pm will be cancelled.

Boston.com feed just reported ALL American Airlines flights are canceled Tuesday out of Boston... 1:30pm flight, there's a very high chance it is canceled

[ajisai]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Wondering if my wife's flight into BOS tomorrow at 130pm will be cancelled.

That's deep in the meat of the storm. My brother is scheduled for flying in on United tomorrow night (10:40ish) and they've already started issuing fee waivers for flights tomorrow and Wed.