March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

Hoping to jackpot here is a recipe for disappointment. 

fyp, and I agree

[TalcottWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People like to generalize impact by track...but it doesn't always work. Circulations range in size...I can see how the big band would set up west if the circulation is huge...but we need to stop with the too far east crap.

Good example of that was the lingering steady snow after last storm stacked. Elongation of the ULL made all the difference. Everything is unique. 

[JC-CT]

can only compare the black and whites to 0z, but the 12z rgem at 24 hours is definitely more phased than 0z

[moneypitmike]

3km showing over 20" at Pit2 at 42; hasn't stopped yet.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

can only compare the black and whites to 0z, but the 12z rgem at 24 hours is definitely more phased than 0z

Yeah I agree it looks a bit better. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

If the 12z RGEM wasn't better than the 06z run I'd be petrified W of here.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I agree it looks a bit better. 

12z going as planned 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I agree it looks a bit better. 

I look at the ICON for giggles because it's there now, caveat that I think it is a horrible model. But look how much different the 12z run initializes the northern stream in Canada vs the 12z NAM. None of the models have a clue what is actually up there.

[Damage In Tolland]

Reggie isn’t worth using whether it’s good or bad 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

3km showing over 20" at Pit2 at 42; hasn't stopped yet.

lol

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

lol

Kevin really gets the "shaft" there

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Kevin really gets the "shaft" there

It has that "flaccid" look to it.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Reggie isn’t worth using whether it’s good or bad 

I still like it. It hasn't been great this winter but it's been misused quite a bit on here too ever since the clown range was discovered...people need to understand that the model is about the same as the NAM beyond 36 hours...so I see a lot of unnecessary handwringing over a reggie forecast at 48 or 54 hours changing. 

It performed really well in the firehose storm actually. The thermals did very well which is the strong point. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

It has that "flaccid" look to it.

He might "limp" his way to a warning event

[rnaude241]

That run shows a SNE jack right over James. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The 12z NAM ...from my eyes, looks as though the westward extent of the cyclone's influence is 1 to perhaps 2 degrees more "bulged" in that westward direction. 

I cannot tell if that is really because the storm is modeled closer to the coast or not, as the surface reflect keeps being repositioned every 3 to 6 hours as though it were dancing around inside the cage of a general, deep cyclonic inner region. That, and the fact that it is so large.. that internal variances become less influential this far from the center (perhaps)

However, the 500 mb vorticity product associated with this run looks too close to the 00z evolution, interval comparative..., to assess whether this is all structurally a tick west, or if said 'bulging' is model noise, too. Either way, QPF and perhaps wind are impressive E/SE

I think the "held serve" impression is probably the best take away - if my insight offers any support or distraction aside  

I'm almost willing to speculate that we could see a NW correction over the next two cycles then now cast shows a track ~ 50 mi E of the BM... Just looking at the 500 mb evolution it seems the models are convectively inducing height falls S of NS that may be overzealous; even having small doses and amounts of that, thus causing this storm's md-level support to try and shear away in that direction, and away from the captive influence of that deep N/stream closure over the PA/NY boarder late tomorrow... This is how I'm leaning now - but reserve the right to not to be blamed as though this statement is actually instructive on why the storm doesn't do x-y-z for whomever cares...  

[mostman]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol

 

Go forward a frame.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, mostman said:

Go forward a couple frames

That was hr 57, I see 50" up in the county.........lol

[mostman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That was hr 57

I know - edited. Hr 60 has more.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, mostman said:

I know - edited. Hr 60 has more.

I used the 10:1, Kuchie had 60"+

[OceanStWx]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually just a warm side of that IIRC. But as you said, probably want H7-H5 avg fronto to really nail those bands down. 

As long as things aren’t completely stacked, everything should slope towards the cold side. So the f-gen forces the lift, which will be just on the cold side of the front.

But some of the surface charts looked a little inverted trough-like. There could be some more energy left to play into this.

[CoastalWx]

12z RGEM seemed closer to 00z on the B and W charts. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I love this board.

Lets draw this beast in , ill take a CCB please

Ill look for the elusive e ma stalled death band next time im on shrooms

[mostman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I used the 10:1, Kuchie had 60"+

Ah - right. Yes. The Kuchera one is bananas.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

As long as things aren’t completely stacked, everything should slope towards the cold side. So the f-gen forces the lift, which will be just on the cold side of the front.

But some of the surface charts looked a little inverted trough-like. There could be some more energy left to play into this.

Right. Want to see how that continues (usually sloped) as it ascends.  What would really be awesome, is if TT had H7-H5 avg frontogenesis.  Sometimes 700 does not cut it.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Kevin really gets the "shaft" there

Shoves a solid 12 -15” right up me fanny 

[CoastalWx]

RGEM is west of 6z with the good snow. Decent band near Kev too.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, mostman said:

Ah - right. Yes. The Kuchera one is bananas.

Hey, Go big or go home.

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

RGEM is west of 6z with the good snow. Decent band near Kev too.

Where ya seeing the early GEM?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Shoves it up and in