March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[ariof]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

DOT does a good job. Roads will be snow covered, but I would not expect 6" ruts on them. Just snow packed. The T will probably have some delays, but should be ok. I would not expect a huge issue in the city on the roads. Good luck with the surgery. 

Massachusetts over-plows its roads. 1A in from Orient Heights to East Boston will be snow-covered if it's snowing hard but then you're basically in a tunnel all the way to MGH. The roads are flat so you should be fine. Just would take a bit of extra time, although for a storm of this magnitude most everything will close so there won't be much traffic. The roads really break down when snow surprises people at rush hour and the plows can't get ahead of it, but they'll be empty tomorrow. Just go slow and allow a bit of extra time.

The T generally runs during storms unless they do the whole governor orders the state shut down. (Well, and after the feet upon feet of snow in 2015 when it broke completely.) The Blue Line has a new fleet of cars and is less susceptible to breaking like the Red and Orange line cars, some of which date to the Nixon administration. The overhead in Eastie also seems to be less susceptible to tree damage compared with the Green Line. Bowdoin Station is about a five minute walk from MGH (which may be as close as whatever garage you can park in); at rush hour it would be faster than driving with traffic. Of course, if the state ever built the Red Blue connector, it would go right to MGH's doorstep. 

[CoastalWx]

6z Swizzy is also very similar.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

One thing is that there's decent synoptic support well west with this thing so we are going to see good snows away from the center. For far eastern areas too the H7 low is very spread out so the best forcing is well NW. 

That said - it's hard to get a widespread 1-2 feet with the storm fairly far offshore. 

Yeah...that too ... good point.  Classic need for a, "don't focus on the center of the storm"  

Either way, the shear immensity of this thing is problematic for the extent of the threat assessing - I can imagine.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z Swizzy is also very similar.

Yep, just came out and MPM for you

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

6z Swiss  also very similar.

What he posted looked like a tamed down version of btv wrf very similiar W qpf enhancement areas . Very 

[CT Rain]

I actually think there could be an area of disappointment for a lot of SNE.

Max band will be right along the coast or near coastal front near Boston and down through the South Shore. Best low level warm advection etc. Probably the jackpot zone.

Second area is pretty far west with some nice 500-700hpa frontogenesis. In between I could see a bit of a sucker hole. 

[WthrJunkyME]

26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Sure. I have a consulting firm that does international work with large corporations developing their leaders to be more effective at leaving inclusively.  I am often in New York london Hong Kong and Tokyo.  I’m visiting London HK Tokyo Taipei in this trip, which is only 10 days.  If you’ve not been to London it is only 6 hours and there are sometimes low fares.  It is my favorite international city, spectacular and full of life.

re weather I appreciate what Chris rotary is saying about scooter flags but the signal has been so consistent for good well inland.   His forecast is climo for a strong nor’easter just outside the BM.  But you know there will be a nice band well inland.  As the precipice field develops early in the storm a band will jut up in a sw to ne orientation well before precipitation develops to its s and e.  That band will sit there and enhance as the storm develops.

Those are fairly exotic destinations.  I have only been back and forth to Heidelberg during the course of my work, not much sightseeing.  Still some consulting work, but basically retired now.  Have a lot more time on my hands to see some places.  I maybe just take your suggestion re London, just to get my feet wet! Safe travels, sounds like a great experience!

[Weenie]

Just amateur observations but not only is the HRRR trending west by 50 or 60 miles every run, but the trof is digging down slightly further each time. Probably just noise though

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep, just came out and MPM for you

Nice 6-12 “ river east sig there. That’s on a lot of guidance 

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I actually think there could be an area of disappointment for a lot of SNE.

Max band will be right along the coast or near coastal front near Boston and down through the South Shore. Best low level warm advection etc. Probably the jackpot zone.

Second area is pretty far west with some nice 500-700hpa frontogenesis. In between I could see a bit of a sucker hole. 

may even be some dim sun out in the sub zone with tiny wind fractured flurries

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, Weenie said:

Just amateur observations but not only is the HRRR trending west by 50 or 60 miles every run, but the trof is digging down slightly further each time. Probably just noise though

Ignore the HRRR until 6pm

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I actually think there could be an area of disappointment for a lot of SNE.

Max band will be right along the coast or near coastal front near Boston and down through the South Shore. Best low level warm advection etc. Probably the jackpot zone.

Second area is pretty far west with some nice 500-700hpa frontogenesis. In between I could see a bit of a sucker hole. 

Box hammering 850-700 stuff centered near canal

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks like the 09z SREFs trimmed back a hair, but relatively minor.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Weenie said:

Just amateur observations but not only is the HRRR trending west by 50 or 60 miles every run, but the trof is digging down slightly further each time. Probably just noise though

I noticed it too. Not just at the end of the run.

[Damage In Tolland]

I wouldn’t be using HRRR at all until tonight 

[weathafella]

 Boxing Day 2 incoming?  Works for me but some will try to harm me if I’m happy...lol.

[DomNH]

Just now, weathafella said:

 Boxing Day 2 incoming?  Works for me but some will try to harm me if I’m happy...lol.

All yours! No complaints if I suck exhaust all day. 

[jbenedet]

24 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

One thing is that there's decent synoptic support well west with this thing so we are going to see good snows away from the center. For far eastern areas too the H7 low is very spread out so the best forcing is well NW. 

That said - it's hard to get a widespread 1-2 feet with the storm fairly far offshore. 

Yes. This. Once the storm stacks it's very asymmetrical with most of the circulation on the west side... Misleading to follow 850 to surface depiction for sensible weather impacts..

This is also why we're seeing model qpf output increase with latitude --- as the system stacks, circulation will expand hundreds of miles to the west, and lots of UL vorticity to tap into with crashing heights...

[Baroclinic Zone]

One stop shop for snow accum (Boston centric)

[JC-CT]

I actually think the NAM will have a better phase this run.

[Cold Miser]

Ryan rightfully going conservative in our state.  Those 10"-16" numbers for my area by NWS were funny. Ryan is back to reality with a 6"-9" spot over Windham County. 

From his FB post earlier:
"We've been keeping things conservative as the center of this storm is going to track awfully far offshore."

Putting the sanity back into forecasting.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Box trimmed bliz conditions from 495 to 128.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I actually think the NAM will have a better phase this run.

Northern s/w a little west and diving down the back of the Southern s/w, Should be west some.

[TalcottWx]

Wouldn't be surprised to see this snow pretty widespread on Wednesday 

[Lava Rock]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep, just came out and MPM for you

wow, look at that cut off.

[Weenie]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I actually think the NAM will have a better phase this run.

It's definitely 2-3mb stronger and slightly farther west

[dryslot]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

wow, look at that cut off.

[JBinStoughton]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Box trimmed bliz conditions from 495 to 128.

Wouldn’t that make more sense on account of the wind field alone?

[Buddy1987]

Coming down this morning in western VA.

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Ryan rightfully going conservative in our state.  Those 10"-16" numbers for my area by NWS were funny. Ryan is back to reality with a 6"-9" spot over Windham County. 

From his FB post earlier:
"We've been keeping things conservative as the center of this storm is going to track awfully far offshore."

Putting the sanity back into forecasting.  

Lol