March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[dendrite]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:01 PM, JC-CT said:

That's solid for SNE outside the berks. I think you missed the upslope potential though.

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PF just had a stroke

[WthrJunkyME]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:00 PM, mahk_webstah said:

I agree. It seems really aggressive, but GYX has been aggressive for several days and they often aren’t 

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Off topic, but can you say something about your trip?  How long is it, is it work related?  I’m pretty envious, never had that opportunity.  Not yet, anyway.  Safe travels!

 

 

[JC-CT]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:05 PM, dendrite said:

PF just had a stroke

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He's expecting 2' of powder and ends up with a coating lol

[J Paul Gordon]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:01 PM, JC-CT said:

That's solid for SNE outside the berks. I think you missed the upslope potential though.

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East slope of the Berks and Worcester hills do well with upsloping, often there are screw zones to our west, their east (namely the Pioneer/Connecticut valleys.)

[dendrite]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:04 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My area may be trapped in the exhaust zone between epic bands for the 2nd time in a week. 

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My hunch is the band is closer to you and not over Logan in NY.

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:00 PM, JC-CT said:

How does it sometimes end up that the expected will be almost exactly the high range, like 10" expected with a high range of 11", but the low range will be like 2" or something?

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Well not all CDFs look like a perfect bell curve like I described.

Some have a big low end tail, but a sharp high end. Sometimes all models say rain and there is no CDF to work off of. It’s definitely not a fool proof system, but it can provide some windows into the guidance. 

It works best for large, widespread snow events.

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/12/2018 at 11:50 AM, weathafella said:

Strongly agree!  

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Was the first thing I thought of... Love city paralyzed by snow

[dryslot]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:07 PM, JC-CT said:

He's expecting 2' of powder and ends up with a coating lol

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He is to low in a lot of the NW areas, That low backs in up here on every model run in a late capture.

[moneypitmike]

  On 3/12/2018 at 11:46 AM, sbos_wx said:

Nothing better than a peaking blizzard during the day time. Nothing. 

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Agree.  That said, the potential in Maine is for a lot to continue during the night as well.  But I'll take whatever I can get in the daytime!

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:04 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My area may be trapped in the exhaust zone between epic bands for the 2nd time in a week. 

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You should hitch a ride to Pit2.

[JC-CT]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:07 PM, OceanStWx said:

Well not all CDFs look like a perfect bell curve like I described.

Some have a big low end tail, but a sharp high end. Sometimes all models say rain and there is no CDF to work off of. It’s definitely not a fool proof system, but it can provide some windows into the guidance. 

It works best for large, widespread snow events.

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So it is a true CDF based on models?

[Briz600]

I am going for 12++ here.

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:01 PM, JC-CT said:

That's solid for SNE outside the berks. I think you missed the upslope potential though.

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For some reason I never seem to take upslope into account.  Probably because I have always lived in the "coastal plain" and have never had to consider it.

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:04 PM, mahk_webstah said:

You are clearly not buying the big QPf numbers back into central New Hampshire and Western New England

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No I am not.  Too many red flags.

[rimetree]

Would like to just have one 12+ event this winter. We came close in the last event but too much rain at the onset. Thinking this is the last chance but I like my chances this morning.

[tamarack]

  On 3/12/2018 at 11:19 AM, CoastalWx said:

They are useless to the real world. People want to know what will happen, not what has a 10% chance of happening.

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Can't really argue.  However, most of the weenies here should be better educated than that, so when I see this morning's 7"/15"/22" for Farmington, I can salivate over that right end of the curve while expecting the  middle.  (Which if it verifies would push March over 30" for the 5th time in 20 years.)

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:09 PM, dryslot said:

He is to low in a lot of the NW areas, That low backs in up here on every model run in a late capture.

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For northern and western Maine, I might be/probably am too low.   But color me concerned about western zones doing more than just sucking exhaust from this thing.

[TalcottWx]

Mike where's Pitt 2?

[dan11295]

I am not sold yet on 12+ Metrowest-ORH quite yet. Need to see 12z to make sure there isn't another E shift.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Can anyone load a nice w.v. loop

[dryslot]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:18 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

For northern and western Maine, I might be/probably am too low.   But color me concerned about western zones doing more than just sucking exhaust from this thing.

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Going to be some screw zones no doubt, Where those are and end up i'm guessing in is some of your flags.

[dryslot]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:19 PM, sbos_wx said:

Mike where's Pitt 2?

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Beginning of the Mid Coast, Bath, Maine

[moneypitmike]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:19 PM, sbos_wx said:

Mike where's Pitt 2?

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Bath, ME.

43.9N/69.8W

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:07 PM, dendrite said:

My hunch is the band is closer to you and not over Logan in NY.

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 If the Monadnocks are getting smoked Greenfield usually does OK.  

[CoastalWx]

PF is right, it's going to be like skiing out west by the time St Patty's Day roles in. Deep deep snow.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I feel pretty confident in 8”+ here up to east of ORH and down to the canal. Would like to see another round of solid 12z guidance for entertaining huge numbers.

The Euro bringing it back some last night hopefully means those Far East solutions were out to lunch

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:19 PM, sbos_wx said:

Mike where's Pitt 2?

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Its a truck stop in E.B.F Maine. Tap twice at stall 4. Bring lube and a diet coke

[moneypitmike]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:29 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Its a truck stop in E.B.F Maine. Tap twice at stall 4. Bring lube and a diet coke

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LOL.  I'm off the diet Coke.  Polar seltzer is the drink du jour.  Coffee is welcome, too.

[Hoth]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:23 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Can anyone load a nice w.v. loop

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http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northernhemi-08-48-0-100-1&checked=map

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:16 PM, rimetree said:

Would like to just have one 12+ event this winter. We came close in the last event but too much rain at the onset. Thinking this is the last chance but I like my chances this morning.

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 I'm with you, my last foot plus was March 2017.   They are a dime a dozen in E SNE.

[DomNH]

  On 3/12/2018 at 12:01 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Here is the map that I ran with for my blog yesterday afternoon.

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I like 6-12'' for ASH. I'm selling on bigger ranges.

[Ginx snewx]

Hey look you slept all night and the models were still there.

  On 3/12/2018 at 11:30 AM, wxsniss said:

While Ginx is getting rest...

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Up at 5 work at 7, we bang