March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

It doesn't make sense (not picking on ya).

Only scenario E MA sees that little, Cape would be destroyed. It suggests Cape mixes.

That's just a pile of crap. But I don't think BOX is really all that concerned about that map. Looks model generated.

It make sense, it's saying this is the least likely scenario.

[TalcottWx]

The early (fool's runs) of RAP say, 'just a foot, hah!'

More like 2-3' would be incoming on that last run I looked at.... Just took a peek for fun.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It make sense, it's saying this is the least likely scenario.

Hah, I guess if you look at it that way it's right.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There isn't that huge of a difference between 6-12 and something like 10-16. Harvey's 12+ is for a pretty narrow zone. If you get 10 inches instead of 13, it's not really much of a bust...not unless you are secretly buying these runs that give you 18+. 

 

I'll bite on 18" here.  Seems within the realm.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'll bite on 18" here.  Seems within the realm.

Agree

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Haha guess if you look at it  amthat way it's right.

It Makes plenty of sense

Cape seeing 2" could be in uber Amped scenario

And LWM seeing 6 is in a more out to sea scenario

Those mid cape numbers are likely going up, at 3pm should guidance stay cold

[wxsniss]

Re: 6z RGEM... 

you guys did see that the SLP is actually more northwest tucked in than 6z NAM, but the precip shield is uber tight... not sure I buy that, especially with mid level processes further out... RGEM does have weird dry burp runs (? feels more often in 6z/18z runs)

 

[TalcottWx]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Re: 6z RGEM... 

you guys did see that the SLP is actually more northwest tucked in than 6z NAM, but the precip shield is uber tight... not sure I buy that, especially with mid level processes further out... RGEM does have weird dry burp runs (? feels more often in 6z/18z runs)

 

Yup, exactly what I thought. Models probably chasing convection east like every other storm this year?

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Agree

And to be bluntly honest, I'd be fine with only 6" falling.  That would be my low ceiling.  If I went ballz to the wall, I'd say upper end is 24".

[weathafella]

Well the good news is with DST some work will get done before 10:30...lol.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I look forward to Sam's map later today

[Go Kart Mozart]

I'm going with last night's NAVGEM.

[moneypitmike]

Walking a fine line between good and great per GYX.

The snowfall forecast is definitely not a final answer, but more 
the most likely outcome based on the current guidance available. 
Definitely expect to have to make some shifts to account for 
track variation, andmesoscale banding.

One question still definitely not resolved is whether banding
features with extreme snowfall rates will remain off shore or
pivot into coastal Maine and New Hampshire. At this point
there`s no clear answer to the question. Will have to wait for
the storm to take better shape and give mesocale models a better
chance to resolve these features.

[dryslot]

7 hours ago, CCHurricane said:

Feel free to share your thoughts on the attached map from both a meteorological perspective and design/appearance.

I'd expect amounts once you get to NH to be a bit higher tbh, haven't come up with a clean way to represent it on the map just yet.

To low

19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Pit2 or bust.    The maps give me a range of 7-23".  The 'most likely' has me at 16" --and about the entire GYX CWA between 13-17".  

Tonight

Cloudy. Snow after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent.

Tuesday

Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tuesday Night

Snow. Additional heavy snow accumulation. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, becoming northwest around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Same here, Love the additional hvy accumulation part after you already have 8-12" on the ground.

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Re: 6z RGEM... 

you guys did see that the SLP is actually more northwest tucked in than 6z NAM, but the precip shield is uber tight... not sure I buy that, especially with mid level processes further out... RGEM does have weird dry burp runs (? feels more often in 6z/18z runs)

 

Terrible model this winter, Don't know what has happened to it.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Terrible model this winter, Don't know what has happened to it.

Good morning Jeff!   To be fair RGEM had one good year.  Let’s call it the KC Royals.

[Hazey]

6z hi res Reggie looks good.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Good morning Jeff!   To be fair RGEM had one good year.  Let’s call it the KC Royals.

Yes, Good morning Jerry!, Yeah, its been off its game.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Floundering weenie should look at my weenie model

https://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf

Big even further west

This is not a bad model, esp at this lead w.r.t banding

[JC-CT]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It make sense, it's saying this is the least likely scenario.

Chris has told us a few times that they have no control over those maps, they are based on WPC as compared to the local office forecasts or something. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Chris has told us a few times that they have no control over those maps, they are based on WPC as compared to the local office forecasts or something. 

They are useless to the real world. People want to know what will happen, not what has a 10% chance of happening.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Scott you see how amped w banding btv wrf is. 6z? Take a peek

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They are useless to the real world. People want to know what will happen, not what has a 10% chance of happening.

That same logic should then be applied to the highest amounts maps; those have a 10% chance of happening as well.  Those all get celebrated.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

That same logic should then be applied to the highest amounts maps.  Those all get celebrated.

Not really....they are both stupid.

[JBinStoughton]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They are useless to the real world. People want to know what will happen, not what has a 10% chance of happening.

Well it does give a sense of variability I suppose.  In this case it seems the variability is skewed toward the lower end? They’re betting the most likely outcome is toward higher amounts 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

That same logic should then be applied to the highest amounts maps; those have a 10% chance of happening as well.  Those all get celebrated.

Can you link when someone celebrated the 10%?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Scott you see how amped w banding btv wrf is. 6z? Take a peek

I did. We hope.

[Weenie]

Just a note, all the shortrange models have been trending west as the storm begins to form, even compared to the NAM

[OceanStWx]

36 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

It doesn't make sense (not picking on ya).

Only scenario E MA sees that little, Cape would be destroyed. It suggests Cape mixes.

That's just a pile of crap. But I don't think BOX is really all that concerned about that map. Looks model generated.

It’s a combination of all guidance (some

good, some bad). So it incorporates all whiffs, amped runs that rain on the Cape. So one way to look at it is this is showing is the highest confidence for significant amounts of snow is that 6” area. Basically that’s their high floor.

[wxsniss]

While Ginx is getting rest...

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It’s a combination of all guidance (some

good, some bad). So it incorporates all whiffs, amped runs that rain on the Cape. So one way to look at it is this is showing is the highest confidence for significant amounts of snow is that 6” area. Basically that’s their high floor.

It's computer generated from wpc ensembles? I thought I read that somewhere