March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 3/12/2018 at 3:02 AM, Thunderblizzard said:

RGEM looks like it came back west a little from 18z.

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yeah from the 1 hour maps on the cmc p-type page it looks pretty similar to 18z maybe a bit west but precip looks more expansive and throws some good stuff back into central and w ct. 

[weathafella]

I think 12+ ORH on east is not unrealistic.

[weathafella]

So we’ll have the gfs verdict in 30 minutes given we only have to see to 36-48.   Sigh....waiting up...

[JBinStoughton]

  On 3/12/2018 at 3:10 AM, weathafella said:

I think 12+ ORH on east is not unrealistic.

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Hopefully more likely than not unrealistic  

[#NoPoles]

So, as I look down at the bottom of the page I see line after line of screen names hanging out and waiting....waiting...waiting

When I swear so many people said they weren't waiting up once the time change kicked in

We need a 12 step program

[JBinStoughton]

  On 3/12/2018 at 3:24 AM, #NoPoles said:

So, as I look down at the bottom of the page I see line after line of screen names hanging out and waiting....waiting...waiting

When I swear so many people said they weren't waiting up once the time change kicked in

We need a 12 step program

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Speak for yourself.  All WE need is the goods! 

[weathafella]

GFS out to 6 hours.

[DavisStraight]

  On 3/12/2018 at 3:24 AM, #NoPoles said:

So, as I look down at the bottom of the page I see line after line of screen names hanging out and waiting....waiting...waiting

When I swear so many people said they weren't waiting up once the time change kicked in

We need a 12 step program

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My name is Davis and I'm a snowaholic

[JBinStoughton]

  On 3/12/2018 at 3:27 AM, weathafella said:

GFS out to 6 hours.

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already looks like it's racing east...but I'm drunk with anxiety lol

[weathafella]

  On 3/12/2018 at 3:31 AM, JBinStoughton said:

already looks like it's racing east...but I'm drunk with anxiety lol

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Not really.  Just a whisker slower.

[rnaude241]

Harvey went with 12+ near the coast of NE MA down to the canal. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks a hair slower and a hair weaker so far... noise really 

[weathafella]

27 hours.  Looks close if anythInk slightly better.

[weathafella]

  On 3/12/2018 at 3:35 AM, rnaude241 said:

Harvey went with 12+ near the coast of NE MA down to the canal. 

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When Harvey comes in on weekends it’s coming.

[rnaude241]

I don't see it going east. Yet....

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/12/2018 at 3:11 AM, weathafella said:

So we’ll have the gfs verdict in 30 minutes given we only have to see to 36-48.   Sigh....waiting up...

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Makes me feel better seeing guidance on Eastern envelop trend westward 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The low is south of 18z just like the NAM was south of its 18z run.

the big jump is from here to 36... see if it stays west or kicks se like the NAM

[DavisStraight]

Looks pretty damn close to 18Z on the surface

[weathafella]

36 hours nearly identical to 18 z wth a bit t more expansive qpf field now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

At least it didn't trend east....that coupled w RGEM tic west make me feel good about euro

[JBinStoughton]

Oh I wish we could bring that 50 mi west

[weathafella]

  On 3/12/2018 at 3:41 AM, JBinStoughton said:

Oh I wish we could bring that 50 mi west

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You’re getting a foot or more.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/12/2018 at 3:41 AM, JBinStoughton said:

Oh I wish we could bring that 50 mi west

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It's perfect for deformation.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The placement of the low is different... otherwise... not much change 

[rnaude241]

Looks very close to 18z to me. Crushed

[weathafella]

I feel good about this one given tonight’s trends.   Good night friends.  Sugar plums in our dreams.

[TalcottWx]

I'm not worried in the least ORH on east. 

[wxsniss]

Looks southeast tick imo at both surface and H5... but we are saved by a piece of vorticity that circles around and extends qpf further west

Regardless weighing all current guidance confident in eastern SNE widespread 10"+

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/12/2018 at 2:33 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

believe it or not, ...this run is slight more proficiently phased than the 18z run at 42 hours... the 500 mb 528 DAM circumvallate more convincingly enraptures the vestigial mid level reflection of the S/stream wave. I'm actually surprised a little that this hasn't slowed the system down more.  interesting...

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Literotica

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Is a 7H low over benchmark usually good