March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Extended Reggie

 

Over an inch for much of NNE.

3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Everyone jumping off the cliff already?


.

Jump or cling to the NAM.  your choice.

[CoolMike]

Stay the course.  0z will deliver the goods.  Trust me I stayed at a holiday in once.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think if you go Euro 60% Nam 40 you get basic idea. 6-12 back to river and 12+ PVD east 

That's where I have stayed 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

That's where I have stayed 

Looks good right now.

[TalcottWx]

Pretty skeptical right now of big snows far west into New England. Never really bought in to this full blizzard idea that seems to be in favor right now. Tip did a good job of explaining why. These last two euro and gfs runs are certainly solid examples. Just a moderate type of snowfall.

I really hope I'm wrong, but to say this is a slam dunk, would be misleading. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks good right now.

There might be a mega band right on the coast Gloucester Boston Plymouth 

[JC-CT]

I'll give it until 0z tonight, the northern stream should be in a position to get sampled by weather balloons for the first time.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's where I have stayed 

Yeah it’s solid warning to 91. 

I think those crazy 20+ amounts were never realities 

[wxeyeNH]

Okay,  not to be a Debbie here but I'm not seeing what everyone is so excited about with today's trends.  Just looked at the Euro and GFS.  Euro run shifted east from 0Z.  18Z GFS shifted precip east from 12Z.  Sure its a huge storm,  960 something but the trend which was great all weekend has come to a halt.  Yeah the 18Z NAM was epic but like people always say, its the NAM.  I would rather go with the big boys.  Too bad the 12Z come in so late now...

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Okay,  not to be a Debbie here but I'm not seeing what everyone is so excited about with today's trends.  Just looked at the Euro and GFS.  Euro run shifted east from 0Z.  18Z GFS shifted precip east from 12Z.  Sure its a huge storm,  960 something but the trend which was great all weekend has come to a halt.  Yeah the 18Z NAM was epic but like people always say, its the NAM.  I would rather go with the big boys.  Too bad the 12Z come in so late now...

I don't know about you Gene but a solid 6 to 12 is pretty exciting 

[eyewall]

BTV has us pegged for 7" with a 1 in 10 shot at 18+ . What I do like is the models consistently hooking us up in the CPV with this one. Obviously I doubt we will see the 18 but the 7 would be good.

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There might be a mega band right on the coast Gloucester Boston Plymouth 

We hope

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is my interpretation of the 12z EURO.

 

[Bostonseminole]

the 18z jumper group is in a frenzy here.. every storm, every 18z run

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There might be a mega band right on the coast Gloucester Boston Plymouth 

There is on the 12z EURO.

See my last post.

We're on the same page.

[#NoPoles]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my interpretation of the 12z EURO.

 

Well, ****, my Friend in Upton asked me what the euro showed. I told her 5 inches. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

the 18z jumper group is in a frenzy here.. every storm, every 18z run

Navgem ftw!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, #NoPoles said:

Well, ****, my Friend in Upton asked me what the euro showed. I told her 5 inches. 

Take the QPF chart...eat a burrito, then wipe with it.

[wxeyeNH]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't know about you Gene but a solid 6 to 12 is pretty exciting 

Yep Scott,  lock me in for my 6-12".  I do have a question for you.  During that last storm the pivot/deformation band sat over the W Mass/S VT to give them the high totals.  Given the slp track now SE of the benchmark where would that probably set up?  Seems like there is many times a secondary max way west?  Edit.  Since I wrote this and reviewing the new posts my question has been answered,  further east than me!

[40/70 Benchmark]

The models, including the vaunted EURO, only properly diagnose precipitation born of low level forcing....that is the heavy amounts that you see to the east.

In a system this well developed, there will be another band that is even heavier just to the west of the H7 Dry slot that will deposit the heaviest amounts..

This is what impacted W CT, the berkshires and s VT last event.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Navgem ftw!

Yeah I saw that run.  It may be the furthest west now other than the NAM sand SREF 

[JC-CT]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I saw that run.  It may be the furthest west now other than the NAM sand SREF 

Yeah pretty sure it is. I didn't check the korean

[40/70 Benchmark]

Diane, you are ground zero on that Euro run.

[eyewall]

20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Over an inch for much of NNE.

Jump or cling to the NAM.  your choice.

I would gladly lock that in

 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Navgem ftw!

You’re not kidding!

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The models, including the vaunted EURO, only properly diagnose precipitation born of low level forcing....that is the heavy amounts that you see to the east.

In a system this well developed, there will be another band that is even heavier just to the west of the H7 Dry slot that will deposit the heaviest amounts..

This is what impacted W CT, the berkshires and s VT last event.

Imo that band is vicinity of ORH

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Imo that band is vicinity of ORH

On that EURO run, its east of there.

Reality....probably either Worcester of CJ land.

[Greg]

ORH on EAST.

[CoastalWx]

What you want to do is diagnose H7-H5 features and corresponding temps. Recall DGZ is -12 to -18C. Wherever that temp profiles lies need to have lift and RH. Sometimes it’s as low as 700mb, sometimes it’s above 600mb. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

What you want to do is diagnose H7-H5 features and corresponding temps. Recall DGZ is -12 to -18C. Wherever that temp profiles lies need to have lift and RH. Sometimes it’s as low as 700mb, sometimes it’s above 600mb. 

Were is that on the EURO? My guess is Plymouth...