March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The ukie and euro don’t seem all that different to me. Tough to go against that

70% euro and blend the rest.  Still gives 8-14.

[moneypitmike]

14 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

This (experimental) graphic from GYX showing extreme uncertainty in the potential.. I'm looking at 0-18"

 

Despite the rather silly range of values there I think this is an excellent product.

Looks like 5-19 for me.  Not a slam dunk decision to head up based on EC.

[Typhoon Tip]

Here's a wild science fiction plot ...

Supposin' the time-change f'ed up that run. Their model does this 4-D correction scheming, which is intrinsically containing some sort of time consideration ... 'what if' their ingest got weird because we sent them our data at a time they forget/or erred in correcting their grids for - ...

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

70% euro and blend the rest.  Still gives 8-14.

Something screams burp run with this. We’ll see though. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's a wild science fiction plot ...

Supposin' the time-change f'ed up that run. Their model does this 4-D correction scheming, which is intrinsically containing some sort of time consideration ... 'what if' their ingest got weird because of we sent them our data at time they forget/or erred in correcting their grids for - ...

Key term....fiction.

[WeatherFeen2000]

It's over (NOt)but I just installed my weather controlling machine which should begin the west trend and give NYC up to Bangor maine a decent size storm. My machine is bringing the storm just inside the benchmark spinning a strong low down to 973 millibars. Take a look at the models the next few hours and compare it with the radar everything will be north of it and the GFS 18z will show somewhat of that but the real info will get ingested tonight at our 0z runs. After this though my fellow I don't use the machine until next winter. And spring will sprung in about a few days. You'll feel it in the air. Enjoy the snow 

[eyewall]

This is one time when you want the king to be dethroned.

[moneypitmike]

When are the eps available?

[moneypitmike]

How did the 12z models fare with their initial look st to he players?

[JBinStoughton]

That was a wet blanket on everyone ugh.

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's a wild science fiction plot ...

Supposin' the time-change f'ed up that run. Their model does this 4-D correction scheming, which is intrinsically containing some sort of time consideration ... 'what if' their ingest got weird because we sent them our data at a time they forget/or erred in correcting their grids for - ...

Quite possible, Tip.  Especially since the UK doesn't go to British Saving Time (BST) until March 25th.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ... fiction aside... our own Diagnostic individuals put out (ironically) this statement between noon and 1pm, which speak directly to the Euro... They are focused on the 00z run, however, conceptually ..what they are describing as concerns are HUGELY exemplified in this run (imho, this Euro run is suspect - ):

"..As expected models are trending toward a common solution in the larger scale but there remains substantial differences particularly in the smaller scale especially in the spacing between the digging northern stream and the undercutting short-wave pivoting through the Carolinas angling toward offshore New England. The largest difference at this time remains in the 00z ECMWF with this phasing/interaction across the Mid-Atlantic early Tues; where the northern stream remains slow (typical of the EC) reducing the interaction/spacing of the waves and therefore slowing the rapid-developing phase of the lower level cyclone along the eastern seaboard (and leading it to be east initially). This slowness has been a negative bias at this time step for the last year or so...eventually trending toward the coast. The 00z ECENS mean helps to depict this being a bit stronger and to the west. After 36hrs and the arrival of the northern stream...the rapid development shifts the track west and more in line with the better consolidating surface cluster (including ensemble solutions) making it a bit more favorable to include in the preference...."

[moneypitmike]

Un.....everything is in GMT.  No time differences anywhere.

[Hoth]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This is one time when you want the king to be dethroned.

If the GFS wins, what do we call the thread? "The Annointment of the Court Jester"?

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

When are the eps available?

Not sure it will matter this time ... as much as the last cycle...  But, yeah, otherwise the previous had the mean typically west of the operational.  This run now has some other issues I suspect -

[allgame830]

8 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This is one time when you want the king to be dethroned.

It’s  not really the king anymore......

[eyewall]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

If the GFS wins, what do we call the thread? "The Annointment of the Court Jester"?

Hahah something like that. Somehow the Euro still gives me 10" (some CPV Magic/Upslope). Dilly Dilly!

[JBinStoughton]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure it will matter this time ... as much as the last cycle...  But, yeah, otherwise the previous had the mean typically west of the operational.  This run now has some other issues I suspect -

I hope this Euro run is off the wall...I don't care why lol

[Damage In Tolland]

EPS typically follows op

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

If the GFS wins, what do we call the thread? "The Annointment of the Court Jester"?

Nah... I think "the ointment in poster dreams"

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS typically follows op

It does... but the last three cycles it hasn't so much consecutively

[powderfreak]

Man what a ridiculous EURO run... over 1.5" QPF in the mountains up here by Thursday night/early Friday morning.

Euro had 0.3-0.4 QPF last night and we got about an inch with 13" of snow over the past 24 hours on the big hill.

I can't imagine what that signal would bring to the mountains up here... thinking we measure feet by Friday.  Just a crush job.

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh ... I see what the Euro is doing here...

It may hearken back to the model diagnostic folk at WPC from early afternoon, too.. This run is completely using the N/stream as a kicker.

Not a phaser... period.

That's the difference.  Correct one way or the other if we must, that is what it is doing.

Having said that, as WPC said... the Euro has had bias over the last year or so (...gee, about when we all noticed it's errant behavior, since the last 'upgrade') of having to correct back west along the EC at short time ranges.  I posted it above...I suggest folks read that -  ...by the way, forget the time change crap. I was clearly kidding around.

[Hoth]

There has certainly been a bifurcation evident in the ensembles. You have one bigger camp phased, deep and tucked, and another weak, unphased and east. Not much middle ground there, so it all hinges on whether it phases properly or not. Higher than usual bust potential with this IMO.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh ... I see what the Euro is doing here...

It may hearken back to the model diagnostic folk at WPC from early afternoon, too.. This run is completely using the N/stream as a kicker.

Not a phaser... period.

That's the difference.  Correct one way or the other if we must, that is what is happening.

Having said that, as WPC said... the Euro has had bias over the last year or so (...gee, about when we all noticed it's errant behavior, since the last 'upgrade') of having to correct back west along the EC at short time ranges.  I posted it above...I suggest folks read that -  ...by the way, forget the time change crap. I was clearly kidding around.

It seems maybe 1-2 out of every 10 significant east coast storms in a setup similar to this the models view it as a kicker.  80% of the time they are right but that 20% when they are not is ugly 

[Logan11]

Fortunately for a lot of you outside of southeast NE the Euro isn't much of a king anymore.  It could jump back west at 0Z.  For here it still has .5" from the IVT and convergence and that's all I'm ever getting so it's good.

[The 4 Seasons]

I found this interesting from my saved files...

RGEM 48 hrs out Jan 4th, RGEM 49 hours out Mar 13 (I would post 48 but it is not available for some reason). 

[snowdazed]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

There has certainly been a bifurcation evident in the ensembles. You have one bigger camp phased, deep and tucked, and another weak, unphased and east. Not much middle ground there, so it all hinges on whether it phases properly or not. Higher than usual bust potential with this IMO.

So... I'm either going to get hammered, or brush off my car Tuesday AM?

*sigh*

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

There has certainly been a bifurcation evident in the ensembles. You have one bigger camp phased, deep and tucked, and another weak, unphased and east. Not much middle ground there, so it all hinges on whether it phases properly or not. Higher than usual bust potential with this IMO.

Unusually high all or nothing potential with this for sure. Not sure how viable middle range snow totals would be with crap rates and light qpf. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It seems maybe 1-2 out of every 10 significant east coast storms in a setup similar to this the models view it as a kicker.  80% of the time they are right but that 20% when they are not is ugly 

yeah... you get that impression, huh -

I think possibly there are actual physics involved at the interface/absorption boundaries between these waves that is/are not fully understood? 

It just seems no model can really phase crap ...that's always been a bane of performance.  Perhaps this will not phase at all like this Euro run... but, enough veracious guidance sourcing says otherwise now, including a substantial number of it's one EPS members that I'm left to ponder if such a result wouldn't almost be dumb luck.   I know that doen't sound very scientific - but if phasing is going to be problematic, which that much certainly more than seems true .. , how else would one logically characterize the Euro scoring a coup with 1/4 the total impact.  

Certainly enough to keep on there toes, huh