March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[Weenie]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:06 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Could be right. Still a big event for eastern areas but not the 1-2 foot amounts (maybe approaching a foot far SE areas) 

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It really depends on whether the southern vort elongates the circulation and pulls of east, or whether they both phase and pull north

[CoastalWx]

Oh well. Onto spring.

[Morris]

[78Blizzard]

I'd rather the Euro have its weird run now than 24 hours from now.  Unless other guidance starts veering E, I'm confidant it will come back NW next run.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:06 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Could be right. Still a big event for eastern areas but not the 1-2 foot thatunts (maybe approaching a foot  far SE areas) 

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W a S.L.P track that box calls far se and not climatologically favorable for big snows i cant toss for That Reason

[Hoth]

Fire up the lawn thread. Let the gipsymothopolypse begin.

[#NoPoles]

jackpot for James

[Damage In Tolland]

If the EPS stays the course and bangs hard NW like it has, then its game on. If EPS shifts east, then we slip it OTS. Pretty simple concept 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

What is the issue on op 

[bobbutts]

This (experimental) graphic from GYX showing extreme uncertainty in the potential.. I'm looking at 0-18"

 

Despite the rather silly range of values there I think this is an excellent product.

[CTWeatherFreak]

And what... Every other piece of guidance is on crack?

[Weenie]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

If the EPS stays the course and bangs hard NW like it has, then its game on. If EPS shifts east, then we slip it OTS. Pretty simple concept 

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When does the EPS release?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Tough tough forecast.

Euro is basically a quarter of what other models are showing.

Barely scraping low end warning for most

[weathafella]

We have another 2 runs of the euro.   Only the folks who can work without sleeping will be up for the 0z.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

If the EPS stays the course and bangs hard NW like it has, then its game on. If EPS shifts east, then we slip it OTS. Pretty simple concept 

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Isn’t it a little late in the game to be using ensembles? They will prob just follow the OP

[#NoPoles]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

Oh well. Onto Sping.

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fyp

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Like how box maps had max amounts at12" plus and min amounts at 0" for about eveveryone on 5am maps

[centralmass]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:13 PM, Weenie said:

When does the EPS release?

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3pm

[Go Kart Mozart]

Tiger at 3pm today

[dryslot]

Its over.

[#NoPoles]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:13 PM, CTWeatherFreak said:

And what... Every other piece of guidance is on crack?

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yes

[78Blizzard]

Even the Ukie was still holding serve at 12z.  For those with the JMA fetish, even it came N from 0z, lol.  The euro is the outlier right now, king or not.

[dendrite]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

If the EPS stays the course and bangs hard NW like it has, then its game on. If EPS shifts east, then we slip it OTS. Pretty simple concept 

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Ooooo this EPS run is make or break. I can sense the tug-o-war in his head right now. Do we ORH or do we BDL? 

Keep’er tuned.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:17 PM, 78Blizzard said:

Even the Ukie was still holding serve at 12z.  For those with the JMA fetish, even it came N from 0z, lol.  The euro is the outlier right now, king or not.

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Ukie track was east of an already east track. Just had qpf magic

[JC-CT]

  On 3/11/2018 at 5:26 PM, Weenie said:

There should be an official model timeline on this site, one where the start times for every model run are posted in a 12 hour cycle and then links to the corrosponding website. That way we can have official viewing parties!

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Not a bad idea

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:18 PM, dendrite said:

Ooooo this EPS run is make or break. I can sense the tug-o-war in his head right now. Do we ORH or do we BDL? 

Keep’er tuned.

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Still an outside chance it’s a light event and you and the hens start spring cleanup. House money though has strong odds on chickens choking 

[JC-CT]

I have noticed the s stream digging further as well as the n stream. Dig too much and that's what happens. Within the range of possibilities for sure. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Well I was certainly wrong .. I thought the higher probability was for this run to come west but a small amount ... sort of visualized it solidifying Barry's idea above really -

This is so discordantly out of sync with everything else I almost feel it can't be trusted.  I'm not sure... ( I don't include the UKMET in any assessment )

The Euro organization doesn't release statements that discuss model diagnostics...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The ukie and euro don’t seem all that different to me. Tough to go against that

[78Blizzard]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:19 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie track was east of an already east track. Just had qpf magic

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It was in the same position at hr 48 at 12z vs hr 60 at 0z, and 3 mb stronger.