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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 3/11/2018 at 2:55 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

For those of you who will be painstakingly hitting refresh as the next models roll in, in my opinion, the key to why the 12z NAM was stronger and a bit further west vs 6z is shown right here at 00z Tuesday.   Look at the difference in how far south the Northern Vort digs between the 6z run and the 12z run.  6z makes it to Pittsburgh while 12z nearly makes it to Roanoke. 

 

 

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Yup ...completely agreed...  You could see way back at hour 24's thru 30 that the N/stream was nosing down more aggressively... I pointed that/this out early myself... 

I also think the S/stream is a tad stronger on this run, though I am not sure that is altogether important as a difference maker -

The key factor with this particular event for impact profiling is nailing down the stream interaction and the proficiency of phase therein... The "weather" a storm will form question is a ship that's sailed... But for whom.

This run is back to more phasing...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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There's so much to talk about where ... where does one begin...

I was just looping the 500 mb wind/vorticity evolution as provided by the 06z RGEM run, and I have to say...that would result, I believe, in a truly historic situation.

Like a lot of big systems of lore and annul, that system would likely stall when that capture sequencing completes ... perhaps along our just E of Cape Cod.  From there, heaving bands of snow would beginning punch SW across SNE and would effectively back down into the upper M/A... If you go back and look at other notable subsume type phasing (and probably 1888 could be included in that... as well as 1978 ... and so others that did similarly but were less note-worthy for having less impact), that is common result; areas from PHL-LGA cash in off these backward pushing arcs of snow that with strong N flow and mid level "magic" ...they end up doing pretty well. 

If I lived in that area, I would keep tuned into this thing, ...because should the more proficient phase (which these runs are coming in more and more in favor of...), then we get into a concern that down in N NJ and NYC and also Albany ... those regions could get advisory if not low end warning wrap-back snows.  I could just see this whole thing correcting toward a more whole-scale inclusion of regions if this trend toward more total phase continues.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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  On 3/11/2018 at 3:01 PM, moneypitmike said:

Isn't it great racking up the frequent flyer miles for free trips you have no desire to go on because you just want to be home when the work trips are done?

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Ahhh yes that happens sometimes.  I hate to miss biggies though.  Need a back up plan for this one I think.  I once sacrificed 5K for a storm...Jan 96 in Philly.  Worth every penny.

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