March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[Chrisrotary12]

5 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Pretty sure 12z was actually further east than 06??


.

You're right, the low center track may be either dead nuts on 6z or maybe a touch east.  I have reworded my point. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

For those of you who will be painstakingly hitting refresh as the next models roll in, in my opinion, the key to why the 12z NAM was stronger and a bit further west vs 6z is shown right here at 00z Tuesday.   Look at the difference in how far south the Northern Vort digs between the 6z run and the 12z run.  6z makes it to Pittsburgh while 12z nearly makes it to Roanoke. 

 

 

Yup ...completely agreed...  You could see way back at hour 24's thru 30 that the N/stream was nosing down more aggressively... I pointed that/this out early myself... 

I also think the S/stream is a tad stronger on this run, though I am not sure that is altogether important as a difference maker -

The key factor with this particular event for impact profiling is nailing down the stream interaction and the proficiency of phase therein... The "weather" a storm will form question is a ship that's sailed... But for whom.

This run is back to more phasing...

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeah should look better.. we will see

trying to phase at hour 30...might be even more amped than the NAM

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Stop stealing all the snow up there

It’s okay, we all feel that way about powderfreak and his low-key 800” a year. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

dude you must think the board can't read

OH!  ahahaha

he got me, as I most certainly failed to read that altogether - good one....

[JC-CT]

rgem is 965 at the benchmark

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Lol agreed. But you are still in the game now whether you like it or not.

In the game for snow, yes. In the game for 18” hell no. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

You absolutely have a chance.

I'd say his area has  decent chance of 12"

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

In the game for snow, yes. In the game for 18” hell no. 

not a promise by any means, but completely disagree with your assessment of possible outcomes.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

yeah thats a problem...its the start of a 10 day around the world trip and I work all day Thursday in London.  Was hoping the int'l flights would get priority to land.

They’ll do what they can, but at mercy of airport delays. 

[rnaude241]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

rgem is 965 at the benchmark

[JC-CT]

Just now, rnaude241 said:

Yeah...lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

not a promise by any means, but completely disagree with your assessment of possible outcomes.

whoosh.

[ORH_wxman]

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

whoosh.

yup right over my head? I don't get it

[rnaude241]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Yeah...lol

I feel like most on the board feel like its had a rough winter. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, rnaude241 said:

I feel like most on the board feel like its had a rough winter. 

It has - but no denying that the 12z suite is amped. Fully expecting the big boys to follow suit.

[powderfreak]

That NAM run is disgusting.

Still cranking upslope after this too.  Wow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

yup right over my head? I don't get it

Yesterday I discussed whenever DT is empathic about no snows, no chance, for nyc to boston it materializes. Stealing a page from the playbook. 

[Johnno]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That NAM run is disgusting.

Still cranking upslope after this too.  Wow.

Man kick the chair out here on the run yikes 

[weathafella]

Locked and fukking loaded!!!!

[CTWeatherFreak]

I got mocked for mentioning the JMA last night..  I kind of put Icon in the same boat, but since it's already been brought up in the 12 model suite, 12z Icon looks interesting.. Nice stream interaction going on here, if not a bit late for those of us not in ENE:

[CoastalWx]

Rgem is sick. For those near and just west of river, I honestly think you’ll get a good band into there if that model is right. I doubt you’ll be screwed. 

[weathafella]

Region wide crushing (all of New England)

[Typhoon Tip]

There's so much to talk about where ... where does one begin...

I was just looping the 500 mb wind/vorticity evolution as provided by the 06z RGEM run, and I have to say...that would result, I believe, in a truly historic situation.

Like a lot of big systems of lore and annul, that system would likely stall when that capture sequencing completes ... perhaps along our just E of Cape Cod.  From there, heaving bands of snow would beginning punch SW across SNE and would effectively back down into the upper M/A... If you go back and look at other notable subsume type phasing (and probably 1888 could be included in that... as well as 1978 ... and so others that did similarly but were less note-worthy for having less impact), that is common result; areas from PHL-LGA cash in off these backward pushing arcs of snow that with strong N flow and mid level "magic" ...they end up doing pretty well. 

If I lived in that area, I would keep tuned into this thing, ...because should the more proficient phase (which these runs are coming in more and more in favor of...), then we get into a concern that down in N NJ and NYC and also Albany ... those regions could get advisory if not low end warning wrap-back snows.  I could just see this whole thing correcting toward a more whole-scale inclusion of regions if this trend toward more total phase continues.

[snowdazed]

I'm not sure I buy that last map.  Central & southern RI keep getting missed by the bulk of the snow this season.  Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Rgem is sick. For those near and just west of river, I honestly think you’ll get a good band into there if that model is right. I doubt you’ll be screwed. 

Runaway gets his foot plus

[mahk_webstah]

24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Isn't it great racking up the frequent flyer miles for free trips you have no desire to go on because you just want to be home when the work trips are done?

Ahhh yes that happens sometimes.  I hate to miss biggies though.  Need a back up plan for this one I think.  I once sacrificed 5K for a storm...Jan 96 in Philly.  Worth every penny.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Runaway gets his foot plus

The fronto argues banding near your area and west imo.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The pattern supports east zones, take advantage of it.

lol you are tblizzing this like a champ! I fully expect you to jack now.