March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dendrite said:

This will be big

Yup.  Coming in hot.

[Damage In Tolland]

1-2 feet 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

nammy has really struggled with this, not buying any of its solutions. 

[JC-CT]

ugh, escapes at the last minute.

[weathafella]

We ramp up.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

That is absolutely fascinating what that just did at 39 to 42 hour there off the M/A!!!!!  WOW -  ..mid level wind/vorticity handling

It abandoned the S/stream and imploded a new nadir S of LI ... I suspect that is the exertion/stress of the more aggressive N stream beginning the subsume process of a much more pure phase - yes ...I used "much more" there.

I don't typically like to engage in these play by plays with rollin' out model runs but ... this is a uniquely interesting situation we got brewin' here

[weatherbear5]

Doesn't look like a completely clean phase, a good chunk of the southern stream escapes. However, the better interaction grabs a lot more of it than last run. Should be really good for at the very least eastern areas

[JC-CT]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

That is absolutely fascinating what that just did at 39 to 42 hour there off the M/A!!!!!  WOW -

It abandoned the S/stream and imploded a new nadir S of LI ... I suspect that is the exertion/stress of the more aggressive N stream beginning the subsume process of a much more pure phase - yes ...I used "much more" there.

I don't typically like to engage in these play by plays with rollin' out model runs but ... this is a uniquely interesting situation we got brewin' here

Hour 42 looked like it was going to subsume into the n stream, but 45 it just escapes east. It might still get pulled back for eastern areas, but man was that close to something else...

[ORH_wxman]

NAM looks better than 06z through 42 hours. 

[weathafella]

Getting crushed at wake time Tuesday 

[JC-CT]

I'll take the 700mb deform over my head though...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The pattern supports east zones, take advantage of it.

[Bostonseminole]

should be juicier for SE/E MA at least

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said:

Doesn't look like a completely clean phase, a good chunk of the southern stream escapes. However, the better interaction grabs a lot more of it than last run. Should be really good for at the very least eastern areas

mmm... I don't believe that is what is happening there actually.

The N/stream is establishing dominance ...hence the term, 'subsume' and that imposes a reduction in systemic support for the existence of the S/stream in lieu of the N... you can see a new nadir of heights and DPVA genesis S of LI/E of NJ ...and that is the relay taking place... It's more of an "abandonment" than and "escape" -

[JC-CT]

That was a pube hair from history.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM looks better than 06z through 42 hours. 

LOL

dude... I am painstakingly writing paragraphs to describe all this schit and you come ... "NAM looks better"  ...

Yeah, I guess that works too -

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

ugh, escapes at the last minute.

Nope.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Nope.

No, it did from 42 to 45. Got tugged back after that, but man if the phase completed there...

[tavwtby]

Gotta love the trend over the last few model runs...

[Damage In Tolland]

CT crusher 

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

No, it did from 42 to 45. Got tugged back after that, but man if the phase completed there...

if we can get a stall 48-51 we are buried

[ineedsnow]

That was insanely close to a top 10

[Typhoon Tip]

Jesus you guys ... let it marinade -

you're all knee-jerking these "oh god it's not happening" neurosis and ending up wrong every time...

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

CT crusher 

Measuring in feet here. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Jesus you guys ... let it marinade -

you're all knee-jerking these "oh god it's not happening" neurosis and ending up wrong every time...

Huh?

[WxBlue]

Well, this one sneaked on me in a hurry after taking a break from computer for a day. Heading down to NYC so hopefully it won't be awful Monday evening traveling back to NH.

[dendrite]

Nice crush job for ENE. Good mid level fronto over the interior too.

[ORH_wxman]

That's biggest storm of the season for eastern half of SNE. We shall see if that eventually includes further west too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Huh?

... seemed like it... Just bustin' nuggets but you said, "oh darn it escaped east.." or whatever, and others have sentiments similar to unfounded doubt... 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Measuring in feet here. 

Most of SNE you is.. qpf aside