March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The 3k NAM is just sick. People would be measuring in feet in eastern ma.

[dryslot]

SREFS suck but they took a pretty big shift west at 09z

[WintersComing]

14 minutes ago, snowdazed said:

The local mets are falling over themselves trying to avoid committing to a forecast.  One actually says that they'll have a better idea of the storm impact by Monday night....

I wouldn't lock in on ANY amounts just yet...as is almost always the case ...a track 50 miles one way or the other will make a world of difference.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, sbos_wx said:

Definite west trend on euro ensemble mean. Individual members have most low centers clustered west of the mean. 

Translation: this is coming.

I like the 967 mb one 20 mi SE of ACK on that last frame... and there's others similar, too. 

Using ur post for a diatribe launch pad:

I'm still edging my thinking toward the thread start, that this is primarily a SE SNE threat...with advisory action back NW ... (for now, heh)

One thing to keep in mind, I agree with Ray that there is a deformation question in play ... which, the models are sort of 'fuzzy' picking up on but, there's enough coherency there to assess where the big beast's arc of demarcation that typically separates it's inner world from outside quiescence, exists ... It may in fact for a change extend roughly eastern CT to the off the N. Shore or perhaps as far inland as SE NH, as oppose to the climo location of over ALB...  That band, as we all know, can and probably will snow a bit more prodigiously than would be suggested by QPF paint alone - if that sets up beyond the boundary separating warned versus advisory ... that skews things a bit.

So, believe it or not there is still time for this to evolve into something more meaningful for a larger portion of the region.  For this particular system .. I think we are as of 12z this morning finding our way upon the steeper part of the slope of determinism, and should this suite of runs come in more or less, I may be less apprehensive to discount either compared to prior run cycles.  This is because the actual stream interaction ... thus in theory, the degree of proficiency in phasing, will be entering the near term. 

Having said that, those three frames of the EPS mean are a bit worrisome I admit... (thanks Centralmass for put that together!) That trend is tough to discount... I find it disconcerting to some degree that the operational version appears to be slightly E of that mean, when usually ... we're set up the opposite with those tools. The operational is more typically going to show the greater standard deviation solution compared to its normalizing mean.  So something there could still be amiss... what that is, hopefully this 12z solution will shed some light.

I say ... this has been a bad modeling winter for "phasing" per se.  Can't seem to do it at any time range, ext, mids or short term - so far.  That could very well end up the epitaph on the head stone of this system when in post mortem ... Not sure if it's something endemic to the circulation its self, or if it is intrinsic modeling physics across the board, but really no model has been able to get it down... and, well... much to their credit (if not chagrin of winter storm enthusiasts) we haven't really seen a truly phased result.  Maybe this will coalesce now, moving into short range... which, that EPS mean would almost have to suggest it does among a few members at least.  who knows -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

this is my worry

Don’t invest, this is not for us. No need to worry when we never had it. We get accum snow but nothing major. 

[ajisai]

The 3k NAM is just sick. People would be measuring in feet in eastern ma.

I'll take whatever the NAM gives and divide it by three, lol.

[ineedsnow]

SREFS are real juicy wow

[dendrite]

Yeah SREFs went beserk.

[NorEastermass128]

ARW members or whatever they’re called scewing??

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

ARW members or whatever they’re called scewing??

Without the ARWs, you would just have the NMBs and those suck too.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

ARW members or whatever they’re called scewing??

Yeah, but there’s a few good NMB ones too. 

[JC-CT]

It SEEMS like we should get a better phase here based hour 19, but after yesterday I have no idea. This one hasn't acted the way I have expected.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

The North American wv loop is just a garden of delights. You can see our southern stream pinwheeling through Missouri, our northern stream plunging down the Canadian prairie, our ridge pumping, our block pressing, and all sorts of interesting bits of vorticity pinwheeling around the skunked out corpse of last week's storm. Just beautiful.

Jesus ... but you left out "...our shorts swelling..."

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It SEEMS like we should get a better phase here based hour 19, but after yesterday I have no idea. This one hasn't acted the way I have expected.

I would tend to agree

[weatherbear5]

Northern stream appears to be oriented in a much more meridional over western Ontario at hour 22. Also, looks like the southern s/w is relatively more neutral vs 06z.

both of those argue it would theoretically be west of 6z... need to let it play out, however

edit: also, heights slightly higher along EC

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's also moving along. No stall here.

heh...it's also moving along at the speed of planetary wave migration ..i.e, not exactly fast...

Not that you or anyone doubted this but ... what difference does it make whether stalls more moves slow...

That 3KM run doesn't look to me like it would actually be over just because those initial intense bands blast through -... I visualize those band moving up and rotting over central NE ...while down here there is some east to west motion going on in bands on the radar that are probably laying down goods.

[tavwtby]

Southern stream seems stronger to me, no?

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would tend to agree

Thirded, but it’s the NAM so who knows what crazy shiat it will try to pull.

[Cold Miser]

If I wish this away is that a bad thing?  
You see...I made a bet last month that I would not make it to climo snow? and 6 or so inches would get me to that point.  

[ineedsnow]

NAM should be west

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, snowdazed said:

The local mets are falling over themselves trying to avoid committing to a forecast.  One actually says that they'll have a better idea of the storm impact by Monday night sometime on Wednesday...

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Thirded, but it’s the NAM so who knows what crazy shiat it will try to pull.

Yeah this is probably "That" Nam run that goes wild.

[ineedsnow]

Stronger and a bit west at 30

[Baroclinic Zone]

@CoastalWx  Thoughts on Logan flights Tuesday evening.  In-laws have an 8pm flight on Icelandic Air.  I'm thinking the airport may be closed.  Also the roads may be pretty tough to travel, they're coming from Colchester.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

Northern stream appears to be oriented in a much more meridional over western Ontario at hour 22. Also, looks like the southern s/w is relatively more neutral vs 06z.

both of those argue it would theoretically be west of 6z... need to let it play out, however

edit: also, heights slightly higher along EC

Yup ...good work!

Although, not sure I would describe that as "much more" ...but somewhat would do nicely.  And, that somewhat may in fact be critical - I suspect it is.  This whole stream interaction/phase potential is exceptionaly sensitive to small scale handling like 'somewhat' more or less of this and that...  That little bit seems to exponentially (for lack of better word) impact the outcome of the eventual west Atlantic total evolution out in time, either way, as demonstrated by different modeling types/cycles therein over the last couple of days. Even the king Euro's ensemble mean being more amped than it ... that may be the reddest flag there is -

[Damage In Tolland]

Runaway weenied his way into a deformation band

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah... this run's going to be coming up with a higher impact scenario... May be tweaking my "SE primary threat" assessment here shortly... If so, I'll change the title of this still young-ish thread to reflect a more realistic scenario...

we'll see -

[STILL N OF PIKE]

John is beginning to get us salivating.

Yes , make this southern stream be More accepting of the n stream energy , tilt things a bit. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Southern stream seems stronger to me, no?

Slightly .... yup.  

It is also about 100 mi east of the previous model's run per interval over that region of the TV ...which has a feedback of more cyclonic orientation (spatially) with respect to the 30 hour N/stream being more aggressive, too ..  That all suggests this should be more proficiently phasing ...we'll see how much so

[dendrite]

This will be big