March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[Johnno]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:38 PM, codfishsnowman said:

funny, they are just always a bit out of our grasp....not much 20-70 miles but its enough

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That band just to my west was tough to swallow last week, ugh. 

[codfishsnowman]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:41 PM, Hoth said:

If you want a silver lining, my area was modeled to get about 15" in Feb '13 and we wound up with closer to a meter. You never know with these things.

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you guys in the Hamden/Wallingford zone have been on fire in this regime.....not far from Taunton in jps

[codfishsnowman]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:43 PM, Johnno said:

That band just to my west was tough to swallow last week, ugh. 

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omg yea...that was like jan 15 here or maybe worse

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:42 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

With Harv as Chief met I am a bit surprised.   

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Oh Kelly.

[EastonSN+]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:41 PM, CoastalWx said:

I don’t really take that model seriously until maybe 24 hrs before. So no, I don’t have a feeling with that. However the Jan storm was much larger in scope I think. 

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Thanks. Hopefully the GEFS has the right idea with the west trend.

[CoastalWx]

Bob I see 5-10. 

[SouthCoastMA]

That could be the right call. Bold, but possible

[Hoth]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:44 PM, codfishsnowman said:

you guys in the Hamden/Wallingford zone have been on fire in this regime.....not far from Taunton in jps

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I think we also jacked (for CT anyway) in Jan '11. That was a great few years.

[moneypitmike]

GYX playing it conservatively with it's snow forecast--which is still pretty healthy.  Not hitting wind issues at all.  I suspect they'll still be strong enough to keep my lawn free of accumulation while up the street they need a yard stick.

 

Have adjusted snow ratios down, and for now have suppressed
model QPF somewhat to generate snowfall forecast. This leaves
room for upward or downward adjustment as the event draws
closer. That said still appears to be yet another significant
snowfall event for the region. Based on current track and QPF
alignment mid-coast and central Maine appear to be best aligned
to see the greatest snowfall.

[codfishsnowman]

a lot can go right/wrong in the next 36 hours so we just have to be patient and hope for the best

[EastonSN+]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:49 PM, Hoth said:

I think we also jacked (for CT anyway) in Jan '11. That was a great few years.

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Fairfield county too.

Only 4 below average snowfall winters this century.

[codfishsnowman]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:49 PM, Hoth said:

I think we also jacked (for CT anyway) in Jan '11. That was a great few years.

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yes and then 1/26-27 with a foot plus

[Hoth]

It's just a crying shame we can't get the northern stream to come down like a 100 miles further west. It's sort of kicking right now instead of getting a nice clean phase. Let's hope we see some favorable developments in that arena today.

[Hoth]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:50 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Fairfield county too.

Only 4 below average snowfall winters this century.

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Plenty of time to go for reversion  

[Hoth]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:50 PM, codfishsnowman said:

yes and then 1/26-27 with a foot plus

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Still the heaviest snow I've ever seen. 5"+ per hour in that.

[EastonSN+]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:51 PM, Hoth said:

Plenty of time to go for reversion  

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Ha yeah waiting for the next 80s. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:51 PM, Hoth said:

It uglyst agf crying shame we can't. get the northern stream to come down like a 100 miles further west. It's sort of kicking right now instead of getting a nice clean phase. Let's hope we see some favorable developments in that arena today.

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Exactly, the angle is sorta fugly.

We all (cept James) want this to go West today

I see a general 5-10 East of river and west/nw of se mass w current look.

10-18 se mass to cape

U want a deform unicorn, U want at least a  Cleaner partial phase

[snowdazed]

BOX is saying 5-8" hereabouts, but I'm not sure I follow their logic.  

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 3/11/2018 at 6:07 AM, Thunderblizzard said:

Euro looks slightly west.

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At the surface the Euro ended up slightly west.  Which surprised me based on what I thought looked like a slight east tick at 500.  Did Tippy say something about the upper levels looking slight east?  I just sped through 10 pages and didn't have time to fully read Tip's diatribes.

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:14 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's also moving along. No stall here.

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Yup.  Can take that off the table. 18 hr storm.

[JBinStoughton]

  On 3/11/2018 at 1:06 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

At the surface the Euro ended up slightly west.  Which surprised me based on what I thought looked like a slight east tick at 500.  Did Tippy say something about the upper levels looking slight east?  I just sped through 10 pages and didn't have time to fully read Tip's diatribes.

Yup.  Can take that off the table. 18 hr storm.

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18 is a lot better than most of what we’ve had lately

[Bostonseminole]

waiting for the NAM till 9:50 is annoying

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 3/11/2018 at 10:20 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Good. Keep ticking west. We know how often the last  second leak east happens inside of 24 hours. Though this isn't a typical Miller B so maybe it won't happen. 

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Will what do we want to see on modeling early In a run to see this coming more west like we want.

A further N southern stream

Higher heights along east coast.

N stream further west and jacked?/ridge amplified?

We are prolly Late in the game for East coast trough orientation to shift west

 

[Bostonseminole]

  On 3/11/2018 at 1:16 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will what do we want to see on modeling early In a run to see this coming more west like we want.

A further N southern stream

Higher heights along east coast.

N stream further west and jacked?/ridge amplified?

We are prolly Late in the game for East coast trough orientation to shift west

 

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for max snows? I think e ma is already pegged at 6+

[WintersComing]

  On 3/11/2018 at 1:16 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will what do we want to see on modeling early In a run to see this coming more west like we want.

A further N southern stream

Higher heights along east coast.

N stream further west and jacked?/ridge amplified?

We are prolly Late in the game for East coast trough orientation to shift west

 

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Would be nice to see that southern piece get a little further out ahead of that northern and pull it up and back rather than kicking it out.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 3/11/2018 at 1:17 PM, Bostonseminole said:

for max snows? I think e ma is already pegged at 6+

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And....

We are missing the lions share of the ccb and a east tick would leave you with a storm near 39N/67west. Not exactly our wheelhouse.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 3/11/2018 at 12:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

Bob I see 5-10. 

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I was watching this AM.  

[Bostonseminole]

  On 3/11/2018 at 1:20 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And....

We are missing the lions share of the ccb and a east tick would leave you with a storm near 39N/67west. Not exactly our wheelhouse.

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I'm ok with your thought process, any tick east and we are screwed..

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Yeah... I think the mixing element is being overplayed based on current guidance.

Maybe up to the canal has issues? I really haven’t seen much that supports anybody off the cape mixing much if at all.

[snowdazed]

The local mets are falling over themselves trying to avoid committing to a forecast.  One actually says that they'll have a better idea of the storm impact by Monday night....

[CTWeatherFreak]

  On 3/11/2018 at 1:29 PM, snowdazed said:

The local mets are falling over themselves trying to avoid committing to a forecast.  One actually says that they'll have a better idea of the storm impact by Monday night....

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LOL.  Well, its probably true!