March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[Semper911]

13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Funny, no one has mentioned the 06z nam.

The NAM is friendly to James for p-type. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

The EPS 6” prob map

 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Hopefully not too far into SE MA with mixing

I think just the Cape 

[Hoth]

Too bad Reg has been hopped up on opiates all winter. That's a sick solution.

[CoastalWx]

With this storm and SNE on the NW corner of it, the mixing is confined much closer to the storm itself. You can see that on the cracked out 3KM NAM. Even if areas did start as a mix, shift to nrly winds as this intensifies would flip those to snow. There is definitely the possibility of areas near the coast, and esp near the Cape to have a bad wet snow event.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Your 00z EPS >12" and >24" probabilities

[Hoth]

The North American wv loop is just a garden of delights. You can see our southern stream pinwheeling through Missouri, our northern stream plunging down the Canadian prairie, our ridge pumping, our block pressing, and all sorts of interesting bits of vorticity pinwheeling around the skunked out corpse of last week's storm. Just beautiful.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good. Keep ticking west. We know how often the last second leak east happens inside of 24 hours. Though this isn't a typical Miller B so maybe it won't happen. 

Reading this is like reading a real-time Messenger post.

Looks like I'm going to need to head to Pit2 again.  Hopefully my wife won't mind....

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

With this storm and SNE on the NW corner of it, the mixing is confined much closer to the storm itself. You can see that on the cracked out 3KM NAM. Even if areas did start as a mix, shift to nrly winds as this intensifies would flip those to snow. There is definitely the possibility of areas near the coast, and esp near the Cape to have a bad wet snow event.

Yeah, rain is not an issue off the Cape with this sort of track.  There is a nice NNE trajectory to the storm.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Can I just say the 06z GFS/GEFS is a thing of beauty.  DAMN that would be a monster solution.

[CoastalWx]

It's also moving along. No stall here.

[JBinStoughton]

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

The North American wv loop is just a garden of delights. You can see our southern stream pinwheeling through Missouri, our northern stream plunging down the Canadian prairie, our ridge pumping, our block pressing, and all sorts of interesting bits of vorticity pinwheeling around the skunked out corpse of last week's storm. Just beautiful.

That was very poetic lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

WCVB Ch5 going 12-18" right now interior SE MA.  6-12" for most in E MA. 

[moneypitmike]

Pit2, ftw.

 

[codfishsnowman]

32 minutes ago, Hoth said:

This is one of those deals where the western folks will agonize and lean on the non-hydrostatic models, hoping they're sniffing out a lot of convection pumping heights and drawing this thing in closer. Not betting on that. Though Miller As do seem to nestle in at the last minute, the blocking and northern stream interaction probably limit that possibility.

this is my worry

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

this is my worry

We see this again and again.  Eeyore all over this one for western areas.

[Damage In Tolland]

35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The EPS 6” prob map

 

Keeps going up. Just like last storm . There’s your band NYC to ALB

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

this is my worry

12z is big today IMO. Everything should be sampled, so we in western wastes will need another 50 mile tick...unless the storm does its thing of throwing a deform farther west than modeled of course.

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

We see this again and again.  Eeyore all over this one for western areas.

i do think we could get some snow back here but i feel like we will be watching the end of the world in eastern zones once again

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

12z is big today IMO. Everything should be sampled, so we in western wastes will need another 50 mile tick...unless the storm does its thing of throwing a deform farther west than modeled of course.

To me it’s impressive that despite a track on or outside the benchmark the models have been putting out substantial QPF well back to the west. I’m not sure why that’s happening, is it the strong north and stream pulling moisture back?Looks like 6-12 back here and further n and w

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

We see this again and again.  Eeyore all over this one for western areas.

2-4" in the Valley seems likely.  More in the hilltowns obviously.  

[EastonSN+]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

With this storm and SNE on the NW corner of it, the mixing is confined much closer to the storm itself. You can see that on the cracked out 3KM NAM. Even if areas did start as a mix, shift to nrly winds as this intensifies would flip those to snow. There is definitely the possibility of areas near the coast, and esp near the Cape to have a bad wet snow event.

The 3k NAM was the first to pick up on the western extent of the early JAN blizzard. Do you think that it is on to something here or is this a totally different animal? The tracks are similar but the precip shield is tighter.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

To me it’s impressive that despite a track on or outside the benchmark the models have been putting out substantial QPF well back to the west. I’m not sure why that’s happening, is it the strong north and stream pulling moisture back?Looks like 6-12 back here and further n and w

Happened in the early Jan Blizzard.

[codfishsnowman]

funny, they are just always a bit out of our grasp....not much 20-70 miles but its enough

[WthrJunkyME]

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Pit2, ftw.

 

 

Delightful!  

 

[CoastalWx]

ch 5 gone wild.  It sure I would have forecasted that.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The 3k NAM was the first to pick up on the western extent of the early JAN blizzard. Do you think that it is on to something here or is this a totally different animal? The tracks are similar but the precip shield is tighter.

I don’t really take that model seriously until maybe 24 hrs before. So no, I don’t have a feeling with that. However the Jan storm was much larger in scope I think. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

funny, they are just always a bit out of our grasp....not much 20-70 miles but its enough

If you want a silver lining, my area was modeled to get about 15" in Feb '13 and we wound up with closer to a meter. You never know with these things.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ch 5 gone wild.  It sure I would have forecasted that.

With Harv as Chief met I am a bit surprised.   

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

If you want a silver lining, my area was modeled to get about 15" in Feb '13 and we wound up with closer to a meter. You never know with these things.

Feb 13 is not walking through the door.