March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[Baroclinic Zone]

GFS.....the forum west of I-95....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We should start stabilizing at h5 soon which indicates the nw halt has been capped. Sound the alarms out east, though.

[JC-CT]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We should start stabilizing at h5 soon which indicates the nw halt has been capped. Sound the alarms out east, though.

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18z tomorrow. Our canadian energy actually gets into a decent sampling area.

[weathafella]

Mid level gfs is tasty actually.

[JC-CT]

The southern shortwave was actually pretty robust this run. That is what I initially saw early in the run. It was the northern energy that wasn't as sharp, hence the more rounded turn.

The fact that the southern s/w is looking good is a good thing, considering it was over Wyoming at 18z.

[78Blizzard]

The GFS is NW of the 12k NAM but weaker.  It seems that the earlier arrival shown by the 3k NAM has the better solution than the GFS.

[weathafella]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:09 PM, 78Blizzard said:

The GFS is NW of the 12k NAM but weaker.  It seems that the earlier arrival shown by the 3k NAM has the better solution than the GFS.

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You’re right about the euro and 3k timing-didn’t notice that.  Hmm...

[JC-CT]

I can't even find a town where the northern s/w is located at 18z. Fort Simpson? lol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Simpson

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/10/2018 at 9:24 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

Low astronomical tides right?

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Yes

[Bostonseminole]

 

  On 3/10/2018 at 9:59 PM, christhesnowman said:

Do u have any idea how to look at a model?  Green=precip

 

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do u? seems not, go back to reading.

[Bostonseminole]

  On 3/10/2018 at 9:58 PM, weathafella said:

I’d wait for more evidence on that....lol.

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I don't see what's better about the this run, less qpf, low further out.. less snow.. etc etc.. 

[Ginx snewx]

Early thoughts moderate powdery snow 6 to 12 outside 95 128, Stout heavy snow inside with a foot plus to the coast. OuterCape blizzard 

[weathafella]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:14 PM, Bostonseminole said:

I don't see what's better about the this run, less qpf, low further out.. less snow.. etc etc.. 

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Well I interpreted your post to be a general trend vs just GFS.   I thought with that mid level look we should have had more qpf.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:15 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Early thoughts moderate powdery snow 6 to 12 outside 95 128, Stout heavy snow inside with a foot plus to the coast. OuterCape blizzard 

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I’d bring 6-12 NYC - ALB axis 

[Bostonseminole]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:15 PM, weathafella said:

Well I interpreted your post to be a general trend vs just GFS.   I thought with that mid level look we should have had more qpf.

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all models improved during the past few cycles, this was the first time one went the other way, that's all, not saying storm cancelled, still lots of moving pieces.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:17 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d bring 6-12 NYC - ALB axis 

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Nice I don't think that's out of the question 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:17 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d bring 6-12 NYC - ALB axis 

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you're just trying to keep me from being sad. 

[CTWeatherFreak]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:11 PM, JC-CT said:

I can't even find a town where the northern s/w is located at 18z. Fort Simpson? lol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Simpson

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Looks awfully desolate.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:19 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Nice I don't think that's out of the question 

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>6 inch probs EPS

[78Blizzard]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:17 PM, Bostonseminole said:

all models improved during the past few cycles, this was the first time one went the other way, that's all, not saying storm cancelled, still lots of moving pieces.

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Shouldn't this type of system be an easy call for the GFS inside of 72 hours?  If it fails this one, perhaps they need to look again at the changes made in the "improved" version.

[JBinStoughton]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:19 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Nice I don't think that's out of the question 

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What’s that based on? Not this GFS certainly. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:17 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d bring 6-12 NYC - ALB axis 

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Agreed, how many times have we seen the best banding set up well Nw of the forecast!!!

[Ginx snewx]

Amazingly the 12 inch progs are higher than the last storm 84 out

[JC-CT]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:12 PM, Bostonseminole said:

do u? seems not, go back to reading.

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Everyone knows blue = snow and green = rain. What was he thinking?

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:15 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Early thoughts moderate powdery snow 6 to 12 outside 95 128, Stout heavy snow inside with a foot plus to the coast. OuterCape blizzard 

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I agree, I think right now, caveat obviously could change (not for you), the consensus of best available guidance is what you describe.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:23 PM, JBinStoughton said:

What’s that based on? Not this GFS certainly. 

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I think I answered your question 

[JC-CT]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:25 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Amazingly the 12 inch progs are higher than the last storm 84 out

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Thermals, especially in the BL, are far better than the last go-around.

[EastonSN+]

To my untrained eye 18z GGEM looks better and stalled.

[JC-CT]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:27 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I think I answered your question 

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Uncertainty really makes some people uncomfortable. Not the hobby to be involved in then.

[EastonSN+]

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/10/2018 at 10:28 PM, JC-CT said:

Uncertainly really makes some people uncomfortable. Not the hobby to be involved in then.

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By saying it's not out of the question I implied probability,  hope people understood