weatherbear5 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Mean QPF at ISP up to 0.96 inches on the 21z SREF, up from .61 at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 5-10 inches on the SREF for the whole nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 31 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 5-10 inches on the SREF for the whole nyc area Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Northern vort definitely further south early on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Northern vort definitely further south early on the NAM Certainly looks so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Further apart at 30hrs though, should end up being a close miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 It's not really further apart per say. It's too early to call at 30 hrs. however, looking forward we need to watch the orientation of the northern stream. Looks more NW to SE as opposed to 12/18z which appeared to have more of a N/S component Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: It's not really further apart per say. It's too early to call at 30 hrs. however, looking forward we need to watch the orientation of the northern stream. Looks more NW to SE as opposed to 12/18z which appeared to have more of a N/S component Yep. The 18Z GFS also had the same issue as well. We'll see how this run turns out, but I'm not liking that development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, Ace said: Yep. The 18Z GFS also had the same issue as well. We'll see how this run turns out, but I'm not liking that development. A more negatively tilted trough would be better primed to capture the deepening storm rather than act as a kicker... I don't think that's an issue. The real problem I see through Monday morning is the much less impressive western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Maybe 50 miles s hair e of the 18z run at hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Went east, less interaction between streams. Southern h5 vort stays closed longer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: A more negatively tilted trough would be better primed to capture the deepening storm rather than act as a kicker... I don't think that's an issue. The real problem I see through Monday morning is the much less impressive western ridge. That's not what I meant. We are seeing a Northern Stream sort that is less sharper thereby orienting itself NW/SE. I agree with you that we want it to capture the Southern Stream instead of kicking it out.. Honestly I believe that reason that its less sharper is because the block over eastern Canada is less impressive this run. The Western ridge being less amplified also has an effect as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 NAM has the surface low in the wrong spot at 51 - it should be just off the South Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Look at eastern Canada. Block is weaker and less expansive, letting the Northern Steam to be less sharp. Western Ridge does not look that different to me. Also there is a bit more confluence in SE Canada. Small changes can lead to vastly different results. Considering the complex setup we have, it will be model mayhem for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, Ace said: Look at eastern Canada. Block is weaker and less expansive, letting the Northern Steam be less sharp. Western Ridge does not look that different to me. Small changes can lead to vastly different results. Considering the complex setup we have, it will be model mayhem for awhile. The axis and amplitude are similar, but the 570 and 576mb isohypes sunk south about 200 miles each. There's definitely less mass depicted in that part of the atmosphere vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The 3k looks like it might come in better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ace said: Look at eastern Canada. Block is weaker and less expansive, letting the Northern Steam to be less sharp. Western Ridge does not look that different to me. Small changes can lead to vastly different results. Considering the complex setup we have, it will be model mayhem for awhile. The NAM wants to pop the main surface low well to the east of the main upper-air energy, which just seems meteorologically wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: The 3k looks like it might come in better. That low is jumping like a firecracker though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Nowcasting time fellas. It probably won’t be long before current radar / qpf starts overperforming in the Southeast , then what’s indicated on the models. its been like this with every major storm in our area lately...not getting a handle until the very end...and then still underperforming on 6 hour forecasts , when it’s already here. No model really painted over 2” qpf for nnj...all those areas got 2 feet. It also moved away from the area about 3 to 4 hours slower than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The axis and amplitude are similar, but the 570 and 576mb isohypes sunk south about 200 miles each. There's definitely less mass depicted in that part of the atmosphere vs 18z. You're right. I was looking more at the top of the ridge. Won't take much to have a reversal back to a sharper Northern Stream shortwave, but it is concerning the GFS and now the Nam are signaling a flatter shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3k looks like a solid hit, although maybe not as big as 18z. Edit: Looks like significant snow for city east on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: 3k looks like a solid hit, although maybe not as big as 18z. It was 50 miles from an area-wide hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 You can tell by how much the low jumps around on the 3k that it really doesn't have a handle on this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: You can tell by how much the low jumps around on the 3k that it really doesn't have a handle on this yet. I think the 3k is just prone to do that in general as well. Rgem still looks like a miss from black and white maps, but maybe improved from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 00z Nam 3km must be on something lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 We should know by 12z tomorrow which way this is going. We definitely need more interaction early on down in the Southeast. A flatter ridge wouldn’t be good and wouldn’t provide the amplification we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 25 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: I think the 3k is just prone to do that in general as well. Rgem still looks like a miss from black and white maps, but maybe improved from 18z The Rgem is definitely more NW with the low through 48 hours, but there is less interaction between the two streams. Seems to be the trend early on for the 0Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Early on but the 0z GFS is looking good with more ridging out in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Northern stream still acts as a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Looks good through 40... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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