EasternLI Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: The 3k looked to be setting up something special Just now, Snow88 said: Hi res is a crushing blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 93' superstorm happened on same day. march 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 beautiful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 PB must be sitting on his couch right now smiling... sorry I know banter but please don’t delete! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 What was the 12km NAM like as opposed to the 3km? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 okx and phl should just go along with trending, we know this isn’t going to be sent out to sea at this point, too much ridging and no strong high pressure to send it out. just pull the trigger on the winter storm watches (or blizzard watches) now, instead of waiting for the last second. The trends will continue westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: okx and phl should just go along with trending, we know this isn’t going to be sent out to sea at this point, too much ridging and no strong high pressure to send it out. just pull the trigger on the winter storm watches (or blizzard watches) now, instead of waiting for the last second. The trends will continue westward. Hopefully not too much Westward otherwise that could be a concern for New York City and Long Island just like last March 14th Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: okx and phl should just go along with trending, we know this isn’t going to be sent out to sea at this point, too much ridging and no strong high pressure to send it out. just pull the trigger on the winter storm watches (or blizzard watches) now, instead of waiting for the last second. The trends will continue westward. There are no models that show a warning level snow outside of the high resolution NAM if I'm not mistaken so that would be irresponsible. Good trends overall but I think we're running out of time with the major models still not onboard, looks like a SNE to Eastern L.I. special IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 18z GFS soon and tonight's 00z runs will be a nailbiter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I hope we get this storm but at the same time I hope its snow from the start and a lighter less wet snow as opposed to last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: Hopefully not too much Westward otherwise that could be a concern for New York City and Long Island just like last March 14th Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Unlikely, most models and ensembles are still rather far east and we're too close in to see radical adjustments. If we go with seasonal trends, then models will gradually tick further west but that's only if they have a handle on that northern stream phasing in. There's still a chance that phase won't happen or that it happens too late and it'll end up being a close miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Upton 1-3 inches on coast for Monday Might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Upton 1-3 inches on coast for Monday Might Good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I hope we get this storm but at the same time I hope its snow from the start and a lighter less wet snow as opposed to last storm. It will be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, sferic said: Upton 1-3 inches on coast for Monday Might Yup and 1-2 inches for Tuesday... I’d say that is a good start considering they can go either way depending on what happens tonight and tomorrow. They also mention the fact of a low confidence in 6+ east of the Hudson River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: There are no models that show a warning level snow outside of the high resolution NAM so that would be irresponsible. Good trends overall but I think we're running out of time with the major models still not onboard, looks like a SNE to Eastern L.I. special IMO. We still have one more day left of model watching. Even though I feel like this is a scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, sferic said: Hopefully not too much Westward otherwise that could be a concern for New York City and Long Island just like last March 14th Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Highly doubtful this winds up west enough that we end up rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 37 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: 93' superstorm happened on same day. march 12 So did another notable March blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Any word on the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: So did another notable March blizzard. Yep, and in our area a bigger impact than the 93 superstorm did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 As much as I want this storm, covering folks with no power in Morris county since last Friday you just feel bad and hope these people can catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Southern s/w better, northern worse (further north) on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 40 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: There are no models that show a warning level snow outside of the high resolution NAM if I'm not mistaken so that would be irresponsible. Good trends overall but I think we're running out of time with the major models still not onboard, looks like a SNE to Eastern L.I. special IMO. 36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Unlikely, most models and ensembles are still rather far east and we're too close in to see radical adjustments. If we go with seasonal trends, then models will gradually tick further west but that's only if they have a handle on that northern stream phasing in. There's still a chance that phase won't happen or that it happens too late and it'll end up being a close miss. I highly doubt this is a scraper. There were significant jumps leading up the final hour of the last one. We still have over 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Gfs is a scraper now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Looks like it had trouble with the phasing. A bunch of Lows stretched it out but then they collapsed onto the primary to the west. I think this just a bump in the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Onto the GGEM/Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Looks like it had trouble with the phasing. A bunch of Lows stretched it out but then they collapsed onto the primary to the west. I think this just a bump in the road. Very much so... make note the GFS has difficulty with handling high complex systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Northern energy seemed to act more like a kicker. Not sure if I buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I really believe this GFS is not something we all should be that all concerned about considering the southern sw was the one looked much better and is currently sampled rather the northern sw which was the problem and in a sparse area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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