allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: What factors would help this to phase earlier? The southern stream to slow down!! Moving out ahead to fast... it phases but only partially at our latitude. Also a northern stream dig would create more interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS goes boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Wow GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 12Z GFS is getting there. Question is, does this trend stop soon? Verbatim this scrapes the city but would easily produce a blizzard on eastern LI up to Boston. The northern stream is dropping in more fully, which helps the confluence over NS to get out of the way with a quickly joining ridge to the NAO block. That confluence is actually important because it provides a coupled jet structure to the developing cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Lets see if the foreign models jump on board as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 It closes off, negative tilt, gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wow GFS Oh boy oh boy!! My thoughts from this morning are certainly coming into play! Perhaps better sampling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GGEM coming NW too early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Oh boy oh boy!! My thoughts from this morning are certainly coming into play! Perhaps better sampling...Yup... This is what I was trying to allude to last night with my discussion with Rjay.. And as he said, the n/s Vort was up in no man's land (still is to an extent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Oh boy oh boy!! My thoughts from this morning are certainly coming into play! Perhaps better sampling... Yup... This is what I was trying to allude to last night with my discussion with Rjay.. And as he said, the n/s Vort was up in no man's land (still is to an extent) Yea I remember you saying that... I had a big write up this morning about the possibilities here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 The potential is massive if this can fully phase in time, also has the coldest airmass we've seen thus far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 It is remarkable how throughout history major storms seem to happen on the same dates.... Could the improvements be based off of better sampling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 10:57 AM, USCG RS said: On 3/10/2018 at 10:53 AM, allgame830 said: Oh boy oh boy!! My thoughts from this morning are certainly coming into play! Perhaps better sampling... Yup... This is what I was trying to allude to last night with my discussion with Rjay.. And as he said, the n/s Vort was up in no man's land (still is to an extent) I have been in here for 7 days highlighting this. i like the Boise axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 H5 evolution very similar between the GFS and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 12Z CMC with a huge shift NW. Still a bit too east, but it is a significant departure from its last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: This one has got New England or Long Island jackpot written all over it as opposed to the last 2 storms that Jackpotted further west. Yeah, but who knows...banding always seems to be 20-50 miles west of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 12Z GFS is getting there. Question is, does this trend stop soon? Verbatim this scrapes the city but would easily produce a blizzard on eastern LI up to Boston. The northern stream is dropping in more fully, which helps the confluence over NS to get out of the way with a quickly joining ridge to the NAO block. That confluence is actually important because it provides a coupled jet structure to the developing cyclone. It could be an over correction. This is often the window where it happens. This does look like its being tracked too far to the east though based on the upper levels much like it seemed the past system was at this range too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Ace said: 12Z CMC with a huge shift NW. Still a bit too east, but it is a significant departure from its last run. Yeah H5 was close huge huge improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 Gfs verbatim is 3-6” for most, not bad as is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It could be an over correction. This is often the window where it happens. This does look like its being tracked too far to the east though based on the upper levels much like it seemed the past system was at this range too this last system over-corrected on the GFS/NAM 24-36h ahead of time, so i definitely am cautious. late in la nina winters in the midwest (where i'm from), there was frequently a tendency 1-2 days ahead of an event for US guidance to over-correct NW, especially with a -AO. it was always clearest when ECM, UK, GEM and the overall consensus were to the S/E of US guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 If Ukie sticks, really good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: this last system over-corrected on the GFS/NAM 24-36h ahead of time, so i definitely am cautious. late in la nina winters in the midwest (where i'm from), there was frequently a tendency 1-2 days ahead of an event for US guidance to over-correct NW, especially with a -AO. it was always clearest when ECM, UK, GEM and the overall consensus were to the S/E of US guidance. True, though Miller As, as I believe this would be, often come in a bit more tucked at the last minute due to latent heat release pumping the heights. Last March might be a good example, where it just kept getting closer up to the event. I feel more comfortable this time around with the blocking, but still prefer to see things a little east at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 700 and 850 on GFS looks like a BM track, or pretty close. C'mon Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 27 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: If Ukie sticks, really good sign It didn't but there's still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 700 and 850 on GFS looks like a BM track, or pretty close. C'mon Euro. THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 That’s not surprising at all. The UKIE almost always has an east bias on very deep lows. It’s remarkable how as soon as we got a consensus for a deeper low it shifted the track east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: It didn't but there's still time We do still have some time , I would say if they don’t show a hit by 12 z tomorrow it’s most likely over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 JMA IS 974 over benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Seems like the models are showing snow well north and West of the center of low pressure no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: JMA IS 974 over benchmark Maybe a hair east, but either way, really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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