USCG RS Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Here's the 3 run "trend"Well. That's just a shame. Still bears watching imo, but.... Models seem to be liking this less. Huge changes at h5 (in the wrong direction) , that's the issue. Edit: At this point in time, I still think this storm is a bm storm. However, I do not like where h5 is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, nzucker said: We need the northern stream to drop into the southern s/w more. We also need the southern shortwave to be more compact and not as strung out along the Gulf Coast. Lead vort needs to slow down and consolidate. We need a better angle of approach from the n/s sw and it needs to drop down further west. We need the confluence to move out a little sooner. We need a lot imo. At least there's the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Lead vort needs to slow down and consolidate. We need a better angle of approach from the n/s sw and it needs to drop doen further west. We need the confluence to move out a little sooner. We need a lot imo. At least there's the Ukie.Yes, this was a huge step in the wrong direction. H5 has a heck of a lot of work to do. Of course, H5 has alot of work to do in terms of what the models are projecting; in other words, I do not quite think we are in range of a true sample. It will be interesting to see how the atmosphere evolves over the next 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, USCG RS said: 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Lead vort needs to slow down and consolidate. We need a better angle of approach from the n/s sw and it needs to drop doen further west. We need the confluence to move out a little sooner. We need a lot imo. At least there's the Ukie. Yes, this was a huge step in the wrong direction. H5 has a heck of a lot of work to do. Of course, H5 has alot of work to do in terms of what the models are projecting; in other words, I do not quite think we are in range of a true sample. It will be interesting to see how the atmosphere evolves over the next 12-24 hours. The northern vort is up in no man's land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 The northern vort is up in no man's landYes sir. So, unfortunately, this is just wait and see and watch the models adjust as new data is compiled and they attempt to figure out what exactly will take place. Edit: And oh yeah, watching the atmosphere evolve so we can actually use our knowledge to interject into the forecast as well. I forget I have to interject that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 EPS Hr 72 and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Stick a fork in it, this threat is over for everyone except the southern middle atlantic and cape cod. Close but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Stick a fork in it, this threat is over for everyone except the southern middle atlantic and cape cod. Close but no cigar. Not yet Gefs just shifted west. Give it to 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 When considering this threat, one should ask themselves: what is the chance that MMU sees 3 March events with 6+ inch snows? It's a pretty low chance.MMU just missed the snow from March 2nd. It was elevation-dependent, so the heavy stuff was a few miles north and west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 hours ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Stick a fork in it, this threat is over for everyone except the southern middle atlantic and cape cod. Close but no cigar. I wouldnt say that so definitively yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 hours ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Stick a fork in it, this threat is over for everyone except the southern middle atlantic and cape cod. Close but no cigar. Didn’t you just yesterday say this was likely a 4-8” snowfall for the area.... I have been thinking a hit since Tuesday night and will not change that at this time... wait until that northern vort gets better sampled it is up in remote parts of western Canada where data sampling is very poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Too much spread on the ensembles for any definitive statements one way or another. Hopefully some more clarity emerges today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Pb said today was the day for models to catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Call me crazy but I see some trending like Boxing Day but it would take a lot to get the severity of that blizzard... we have seen some dramatic shifts in the past before not just including this season... Some of our greatest storms were modeled days in advance to only be lost in the medium range but then come back just a strong. Obviously that doesn’t have to happen here since all storms are different in their nature but the possibility is always there. Its always a tough situation when you have such a complex setup and one of your main players is not on the field until 48-60 hours before game time. I’d still say give it time and wait for that northern vort to be well sampled with leads me to be believe why we are seeing dramatic shifts in track and that is why nothing in set in stone and shouldn’t be written off. IMO I would have written this off if I do think it would improve! Also to note having the UKMET on board still is a plus but need to see some more agreement. Something like the 12z GFS yesterday would be decent for the area. More over the 6z GEFS west of the OP is also a red flag but some additional op run support will be needed quickly. I will conclude by saying if more support is not had by tonight 0z runs or at the very latest 12z tomorrow then this will be probably be more a nuisance or scraper along the coast maybe possibly giving Eastern LI and eastern coastal CT some decent snows. Stay tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, snow1 said: Pb said today was the day for models to catch on. Yes for the American models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 The circled vort in the image below goes along with my point of being in a sparse data area need that to drop closer to the CONUS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Out of all the major models, only the UKMET has been consistently the closest to an impact here, which is odd considering the model has a progressive, Eastward bias for coastal storms. i would give it until tonight, but it seems the concensus is between a gralncing blow and an all out miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 9 hours ago, Enigma said: When considering this threat, one should ask themselves: what is the chance that MMU sees 3 March events with 6+ inch snows? It's a pretty low chance. I'm *still* not a statistician, but am genuinely curious... isn't this just a variation of the gambler's fallacy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Nam is way further west compared to 6z . It might phase this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Very close on the Nam Few hours early with the phasing and bam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, EasternLI said: WOW... that is soo close! If this keeps trending PB was balls on accurate!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 NAM blows up the storm offshore but definitely trending in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 if you call for snow all the time eventually you'll be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if you call for snow all the time eventually you'll be right even a broken clock is right twice a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 WITH DST tonight and clocks turned 1 hour forward , what time will the 00Z Euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, sferic said: WITH DST tonight and clocks turned 1 hour forward , what time will the 00Z Euro come out? Tonight is normal time it’s been... but then it won’t be u til 2-215am starting tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: I'm *still* not a statistician, but am genuinely curious... isn't this just a variation of the gambler's fallacy? Seems like it. A series of random events is deemed more or less likely because of previous ones. You flip a coin ten times and heads comes out every time. Someone may erroneously think that tails "must" have to come out now, despite the chance still being 50/50. It reminds me of when people say "You don't want to be in the bullseye this far out." Sorry for banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: WOW... that is soo close! If this keeps trending PB was balls on accurate!! What factors would help this to phase earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Northern Stream SW is more Southwest on the 12Z GFS and makes a huge difference. Seems to be the general trend among the 12Z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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