weatherlogix Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Bring on spring already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: The sref has been super consistent too. Nam, sref, gem-lam vs ukie, gfs, rgem, euro, cmc The sref's are worse than a broken clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I think Long Island will get a few inches regardless of track; less likely N&W of NYC yet that of course can still change. Starting with the 00NAM this will be nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Hard for me to know what will happen here. This could easily go east or west depending on a few hours in the timing of the phase. I tend to think it will verify more west in the end due to some help from the NAO which could slow things down enough to allow a phase, but the trend towards separation of the streams isnt good and we’re in crunch time. If I had to guess I’d say 1-3” around the city, 3-5” for Nassau/W Suffolk, 5-8” eastern Suffolk, an inch or so west of the city. That could easily end up higher if the pattern could slow down a little more and allow a better phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Let’s see how many throw in the towel at 18z, only to pick it up at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 GFS looks like a prolonged period of lighter snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: Let’s see how many throw in the towel at 18z, only to pick it up at 0z You seem to really holding out hope... I would like to know why if I may ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I haven't peeked the meltdown that must be ongoing in Boston... As for the GFS, it's March so light stuff like that is white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 There goes the hi res RGEM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: There goes the hi res RGEM too. Bad data on the 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Initialization errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: There goes the hi res RGEM too. Ahh damn. Sucks I was holding out hope for this based on that model which has been busting like crazy. (Sarcasm) In all honesty I’m just ready for spring which is why I haven’t been following that closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 BTW I am hating the model solutions this afternoon but loving THIS thread name !!! Now if only Rjay can work some mojo ,,,,lol In keeping with the thread I wish they had spit these damn solutions out yesterday,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The NAVGEM is now the furthest west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: BTW I am hating the model solutions this afternoon but loving THIS thread name !!! Now if only Rjay can work some mojo ,,,,lol In keeping with the thread I wish they had spit these damn solutions out yesterday,,, I was hoping that he had named this thread "Fish Bomb #2." I'm pretty confident that if he had done that, we would all cash in on tomorrow's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 46 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: GFS looks like a prolonged period of lighter snow Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: Initialization errors We talking real initialization errors or Boxing Day initialization errors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. We talking real initialization errors or Boxing Day initialization errors? The Boxing Day type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: The Boxing Day type OMG that would be historic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: OMG that would be historic... I had a feeling it might be taken the wrong way. The Boxing Day initialization errors were we would call today "fake news". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: I had a feeling it might be taken the wrong way. The Boxing Day initialization errors were we would call today "fake news". Kids these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The only possible hope for a big west shift is that the northern shortwave is to an extent still in the middle of nowhere or at least was at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The only possible hope for a big west shift is that the northern shortwave is to an extent still in the middle of nowhere or at least was at 12Z I was just gonna use 1 of my lifelines but that was sufficient TY Snowgoose for that glimmer of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: I had a feeling it might be taken the wrong way. The Boxing Day initialization errors were we would call today "fake news". Lol ha I knew what you were referring too... I didn’t take it the wrong way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The only possible hope for a big west shift is that the northern shortwave is to an extent still in the middle of nowhere or at least was at 12Z Oh I thought the northern SW was sampled by now... ok guess not. Onto 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Oh I thought the northern SW was sampled by now... ok guess not. Onto 0z Still no man's land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: I haven't peeked the meltdown that must be ongoing in Boston... As for the GFS, it's March so light stuff like that is white rain. It's not that bad in the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The only possible hope for a big west shift is that the northern shortwave is to an extent still in the middle of nowhere or at least was at 12Z Isn't this issue mostly just limited to sparse 'sonde launching sites? You would think that aircraft telemetry and remote sensing and such would provide enough data that huge shifts become unlikely when the disturbance enters a denser obs network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I'm hoping it goes so far east that BOS gets a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I’m confused. Wasn’t on here for Boxing Day. Are the 18z errors real or are we just kidding around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Why was this thread renamed to March 12th - 13th The It's Not Coming Storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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