March 12th - 13th Scraper

[Ericjcrash]

Lol, bostons expected snowfall map has them at 15". I'm here looking for 15 flakes. SLP a little stronger slightly east thru 16

[Rtd208]

IMO this is an eastern areas special, the city westward won't see much but there is still a little time for some changes.

[Ericjcrash]

East a decent bit thru 27.

[allgame830]

Skylar has been born according to TWC lol why do they have to name them lol 

[mikem81]

Not liking the NAM

[Dan76]

5 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Skylar has been born according to TWC lol why do they have to name them lol 

Don't even watch them.

[Wetbulbs88]

Precip shield is more impressive at least. Our best hope is for last minute ticks west. 

[USCG RS]

Precip shield is more impressive at least. Our best hope is for last minute ticks west. 

H5 is not far off from a complete bomb.

[sferic]

OOZ runs tonight then nowcasting tomorrow

[Wetbulbs88]

Just now, USCG RS said:

2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Precip shield is more impressive at least. Our best hope is for last minute ticks west. 

H5 is not far off from a complete bomb.

Yeah and it makes me wonder whether a cleaner phase might keep this a bit more tucked. 

[USCG RS]

Yeah and it makes me wonder whether a cleaner phase might keep this a bit more tucked. 

A cleaner phase and this is bm. The other thing people have not quite alluded to is the fact that this is also pulling in artic energy. We are close to a very strong hit. I would not be surprised to see the 3km NAM go bonkers.

 

[mikem81]

Precip shield much more weat of SLP this run 

[Wetbulbs88]

Just now, USCG RS said:

2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Yeah and it makes me wonder whether a cleaner phase might keep this a bit more tucked. 

A cleaner phase and this is bm. The other thing people have not quote alluded to is the fact that this is also pulling in artic energy. We are close to a very strong hit. I would not be surprised to see the 3km NAM go. Bonkers.

The NAM is leagues from the Euro. Precip shield is far more expansive and the track almost starts to retrograde back onto the coast. Very close to something special. 

[Doorman]

NAM at 36.....Peanut Butter

[NYCGreg]

7 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

9 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Precip shield is more impressive at least. Our best hope is for last minute ticks west. 

H5 is not far off from a complete bomb.

That's all well and good, but we're running out of time.  A near miss is still a miss.  Isn't it at all concerning that the only runs that seem to show hits are the "off runs" at 6z and 18z?

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, Doorman said:

NAM at 36.....Peanut Butter

Haha I see what you did there.... 

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, NYCGreg said:

That's all well and good, but we're running out of time.  A near miss is still a miss.  Isn't it at all concerning that the only runs that seem to show hits are the "off runs" at 6z and 18z?

There's no escaping the fact that we're on the outside looking in. But we're not exactly that far from a hit, and the way these models trend with big complex storms, no reason to throw in the towel just yet. 

[Snowlover11]

man eastern li and Southeast new england get nuked.

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

That's all well and good, but we're running out of time.  A near miss is still a miss.  Isn't it at all concerning that the only runs that seem to show hits are the "off runs" at 6z and 18z?

Not really as you get closer all model runs should hold the same weight...

[Juliancolton]

4 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

That's all well and good, but we're running out of time.  A near miss is still a miss.  Isn't it at all concerning that the only runs that seem to show hits are the "off runs" at 6z and 18z?

It looks like parts of the island will end up with 1.5 to 2" of precip on the 18z NAM. It may not rock for your hood but it's not a miss. 

[sferic]

History does show that these storms do trend west. OOZ will be telling.

More likely it does trend west then it doesn't.

[NYCGreg]

2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

There's no escaping the fact that we're on the outside looking in. But we're not exactly that far from a hit, and the way these models trend with big complex storms, no reason to throw in the towel just yet. 

 

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

It looks like parts of the island will end up with 1.5 to 2" of precip on the 18z NAM. It may not rock for your hood but it's not a miss. 

I will clarify - for Hoboken specifically.

[donsutherland1]

Similar track to 12z, but a more sensible snow shield (IMO).

[Ace]

A sharper Northern Stream allows for more precipitation to the west of our low. You guys are focusing too much on the initial position of the low. Second consecutive run in which the Northern Stream gets sharper. If we keep this up for a couple more runs, we're golden.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Ace said:

A sharper Northern Stream allows for more precipitation to the west of our low. You guys are focusing too much on the initial position of the low. Second consecutive run in which the Northern Stream gets sharper. If we keep this up for a couple more runs, we're golden.

Yes that is what I saw to be the most important part of this run! Game is not over guys...

[Doorman]

nam 12k -36hrs

two words

frontogenetic banding

[USCG RS]

That's all well and good, but we're running out of time.  A near miss is still a miss.  Isn't it at all concerning that the only runs that seem to show hits are the "off runs" at 6z and 18z?

I posted this on the other forum a few days ago.

When people make the time argument, what they really mean is that the models have truly sampled everything, mainly the players on the field (how they are behaving), and should in theory be taking the mystery out of the forecast. While, at times, this argument stands to reason, many times it also does not. 

As has been said by others, models have to put out a projection, period. Good, bad or indifferent, they will always make a prediction. Just because it does not look conducive for a storm on models does not mean it will not happen, and visa versa. 

Getting back to the time argument.. Yes, with more straight forward situations, the closer we are to an event, the more accurate the models should be and the less drastic the shifts should be. However, we also need to use pattern recognition and the evolution of the atmosphere. We are still in a dynamic pattern with blocking. Models do not have a good grasp on blocking because the physics of blocking are much more about nuance and ever so slightly shifts in atmospheric conditions. Hence, here, chaos theory can take effect (one error multiplies leads to choas - to paraphrase rather lossoely) and models can still have drastic swings, even as we close in on what should be a models accurate range. 

With regards to this storm, the true answer is at h5. The capture of this storm is a matter of hours and the n/s and s/s both attest to this. We speed one or the other up and the counterpart throttles back by an Hr or two and we have a much cleaner phase in our latitude. Likewise, the NAO is progressings towards neutral, however we still have some blocking and although indicies may show one thing, when the change is rapid, the atmosphere still needs time to adjust to that factor. In other words, though the NAO may be technically neutral, the atmosphere will still need a couple of days to adjust and therefore the atmosphere will still act to slow down the storm.

[EasternLI]

Nam really tries for the phase early. Holy crap if we somehow get that accomplished. 

[NYCGreg]

9 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I posted this on the other forum a few days ago.

When people make the time argument, what they really mean is that the models have truly sampled everything, mainly the players on the field (how they are behaving), and should in theory be taking the mystery out of the forecast. While, at times, this argument stands to reason, many times it also does not. 

As has been said by others, models have to put out a projection, period. Good, bad or indifferent, they will always make a prediction. Just because it does not look conducive for a storm on models does not mean it will not happen, and visa versa. 

Getting back to the time argument.. Yes, with more straight forward situations, the closer we are to an event, the more accurate the models should be and the less drastic the shifts should be. However, we also need to use pattern recognition and the evolution of the atmosphere. We are still in a dynamic pattern with blocking. Models do not have a good grasp on blocking because the physics of blocking are much more about nuance and ever so slightly shifts in atmospheric conditions. Hence, here, chaos theory can take effect (one error multiplies leads to choas - to paraphrase rather lossoely) and models can still have drastic swings, even as we close in on what should be a models accurate range. 

With regards to this storm, the true answer is at h5. The capture of this storm is a matter of hours and the n/s and s/s both attest to this. We speed one or the other up and the counterpart throttles back by an Hr or two and we have a much cleaner phase in our latitude. Likewise, the NAO is progressings towards neutral, however we still have some blocking and although indicies may show one thing, when the change is rapid, the atmosphere still needs time to adjust to that factor. In other words, though the NAO may be technically neutral, the atmosphere will still need a couple of days to adjust and therefore the atmosphere will still act to slow down the storm.

I get it, maybe we'll get a shocker.  I guess we'll have to wait and see.

[Rtd208]

Even though I still think this is an eastern areas special you can't rule out places further west getting in on the heavier snows especially if an earlier phase occurs. I do agree that the 00z runs should be interesting to say the least.