Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GEFS anyone? No bueno, pretty far east with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Euro shunts it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Euro looks really east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Euro missed the phase. Within ensemble spread from last night though, so we have that. Curious what EPS does with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 55 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I can’t believe anything it says after the last two storms. As others said between them both I should have 24”. Instead I ended up with 3”. Throw in last March too. In fact, amounts predicted for me have not verified anywhere close for a few storms now. Most of the time it is less. Understand this is the way it is. Can't control it. Just hasn't been our season the past two. And yet we get 2 feet in Jan 2016 in an otherwise warm winter. Go figure. And I know, you were in TX. We'll get one again someday. Guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 376 FXUS61 KOKX 111802 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 202 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018 For QPF, increased amounts across the board by 0.10-0.20 inches from the previous forecast and this may need to be adjusted upwards with subsequent forecasts. Used the colder guidance for temps through the event (close to SuperBlend). This should be primarily a snow event based on thermal profiles and with most of it occurring at night. Boundary layer temps and sun angle may however result in either a mix of rain and snow or a non-accumulating snow during parts of the daytime hours Tuesday or whatever manages to fall by day`s end on Monday. Current forecast has the just about all of area at advisory level snowfall. The exception is over Northern New London County where a winter storm watch is being issued after collaboration with the surrounding offices. More zones may be added later today, especially if models show the storm trending towards the 40N/70W benchmark. A trend towards the benchmark will also increase the chances of frontogenetic banding somewhere over the forecast area, so this will need to be considered as well. Feb 12 06 comes to mind---- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Throw in last March too. In fact, amounts predicted for me have not verified anywhere close for a few storms now. Most of the time it is less. Understand this is the way it is. Can't control it. Just hasn't been our season the past two. And yet we get 2 feet in Jan 2016 in an otherwise warm winter. Go figure. And I know, you were in TX. We'll get one again someday. Guaranteed. 19 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Throw in last March too. In fact, amounts predicted for me have not verified anywhere close for a few storms now. Most of the time it is less. Understand this is the way it is. Can't control it. Just hasn't been our season the past two. And yet we get 2 feet in Jan 2016 in an otherwise warm winter. Go figure. And I know, you were in TX. We'll get one again someday. Guaranteed. I think there is a sore need for the development of new models, rather than trying to tweak old models. I've read that the models we follow do particularly poorly for our part of the world during the winter for various reasons (land-sea interactions, gulf stream, etc.) Theoretically, I wonder if it would be possible to develop a more accurate model, just for the the NE/MA region specifically developed to handle coastal storms. I dont care if it cant predict storms going into the west coast or a heatwave in the summer, or even if it cant predict a hurricane hitting the Caribbean. Just a very specialized model that outperforms global and short range models on one specific type of storm in one specific part of the world- call it the north east winter storm model and ensemble system. Intuitively at least the smaller the region that the model covers, the more accurate you'd be able to make it. I remember reading that the GFS developed a cold bias because we were trying to fix its overdevelopment of tropical systems. Well, if we have a model that is specific to one type of storm in a specific part of the country we should be able to increase the accuracy because that is the only thing it's supposed to predict well- it's the era of specialization folks ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Bad euro run for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Any big threats for coastal locations? I.e., barrier islands of NJ? I assume some coastal flooding, but what should we expect wind wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 hot off the press http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/# % for 8" http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 If that storm could slide West about 50-100 miles, that would be huge snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Yo T, do you have a start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Yo T, do you have a start time? how ya do V Sunset Mañana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, Doorman said: hot off the press http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/# % for 8" http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif That ain’t too bad considering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, mikem81 said: Euro looks really east Eps also Either lost or really right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: 18z NAM soon? 345 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 18 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Yo T, do you have a start time? Maybe, well quite possibly never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps also Either lost or really right All of the 12z guidance was a step back. 18z could be revealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 38 minutes ago, Doorman said: hot off the press http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/# % for 8" http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif I believe this is the probability for 4 inches not 8. Never mind the link is for 8, I just saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Upton just increased snowfall for my Nassau County zone, yet no WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Euro run didn't prevent the SREFs from doing SREF things. Mean is over 1 foot at ISP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The amount of uncertainty this close in is really astounding IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: The amount of uncertainty this close in is really astounding IMHO. This month, certainty has waited until nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 SREF still have a nice size snowstorm for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Winter Storm Watch Posted https://www.weather.gov/okx/ I guess we can bet the ponies at Monticello tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: This month, certainty has waited until nowcast time. Yes the models don't catch on literally to the last minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: SREF still have a nice size snowstorm for the area So that sounds like they backed off considerably... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: SREF still have a nice size snowstorm for the area Steady on the QPF since 9z. Still about 1 inch liquid for LGA and JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: So that sounds like they backed off considerably... JFK mean went from 1.27 to 1.21 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 38 minutes ago, Doorman said: how ya do V Sunset Mañana I'm good pal 谢谢 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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