allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: RGEM Isn’t the pecip still ongoing after this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Isn’t the pecip still ongoing after this... Yeah probably. But for the NYC area the precipitation will likely be almost over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 If that storm could slide East about 50-100 miles, that would be huge snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I get that and I think most here would agree; even here in E NJ where totals were very modest the impacts of the heavy wet snow were severe. That said a number of us in these parts have not had a big storm this year ( over 8-9 ), and many wouldn't mind seeing one. Still, no one is going to cry if that doesn't happen. And it doesn't seem to look like it will happen ATM for us. You're not in the minority for wanting better weather for your area. Being without power sucks. Especially if you have sump pumps....good luck up there. Thanks - it's back here; I just don't want to lose it again. Still many out in the neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12Z RGEM has very similiar track as 6Z, but the low pressure is 6 to 10 mb lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 GFS great track through the BM but precip on western side is less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: GFS great track through the BM but precip on western side is less. Can someone explain why all models are showing this? The track has become much more favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Gfs is starting to trend towards more aggressive phasing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Can someone explain why all models are showing this? The track has become much more favorable I can’t really explain that but that should correct in the next few runs... H5 looked pretty good, more phasing but the surface needs to come around. Kinda like the pressure drops in a hurricane... the winds always lag behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 28 minutes ago, EasternLI said: No idea, need to wait for better maps. Looks like 965 on BM? Im still pretty green at this and those RGEM maps are dam tough to read but to me it appears that the 965 is inside the BM but I could be mistaken ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Not the time to throw in the towel IMO. The storm track is close enough and its going to be amped... Won't take much to make this a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Track looks good on GFS/CMC/RGEM and NAM 3k. Just need a better precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 16 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Im still pretty green at this and those RGEM maps are dam tough to read but to me it appears that the 965 is inside the BM but I could be mistaken ? Looks like just a bit outside the BM on another site on that run. I'm more focused on 500mb, and that run was pretty sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Blizzard watches probably go up later today for Boston and eastern New England. Precip shield underdone on west side of storm. Bernie Rayno agrees lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, weathermedic said: Blizzard watches probably go up later today for Boston and eastern New England. Precip shield underdone on west side of storm. Bernie Rayno agrees lol. there is no such thing as a blizzard watch anymore. winter storm watches are the only heads up now. the blizzard warning would be issued once confidence is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Hi res RGEM looking pretty good for LI and maybe even NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 This has always looked like a classic New England, Eastern L.I. special although obviously it's still close enough to watch. Right now it looks like we get our couple of inches then lets bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The high res RGEM hits LI pretty hard...Would love to see 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Hi res RGEM precip shield makes more sense given the low placement and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ace said: The high res RGEM hits LI pretty hard...Would love to see 500mb That looks pretty darn good for NYC as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 UKIE same track but stinger stingier with the precip back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: That looks pretty darn good for NYC as well... That model owes me 24+" of snow from the last two storms. It showed Nassau County getting 16" from the last storm during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Can somebody explain why the western precip shield is very stingy on west side of storm on almost all short and long term models. Does it have to do with the upper low over that Great Lakes? Sorry if it’s already been explained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: That model owes me 24+" of snow from the last two storms. It showed Nassau County getting 16" from the last storm during the storm. Yeah it’s been pretty poor all winter long to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said: Can somebody explain why the western precip shield is very stingy on west side of storm on almost all short and long term models. Does it have to do with the upper low over that Great Lakes? Sorry if it’s already been explained Because the precip shield on the models has proven to be inaccurate especially as you go further out in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 48 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Hi res RGEM precip shield makes more sense given the low placement and strength. I can’t believe anything it says after the last two storms. As others said between them both I should have 24”. Instead I ended up with 3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That (10mm) equals to about .4 inches in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I’m not sold about the 0.3” type liquid amounts sticking. Intensity would likely be light, and if it falls during the day it could just be white rain around the city. Hopefully we can get a phase a little sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 GEFS anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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