weathermedic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Doesn’t it seem to be a little sparse on the western edge... Model QPF/Precip maps tend to be underdone on the west side of deepening Atlantic storms. Key is to look at the cyclonic flow on the west side of the storms to get a better idea where precip will extend on the western side (learned that from Bernie Rayno's videos) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Up to 42 hours it looked great... NAM’s “wheelhouse” is usually inside that range (if we consider it to have one LOL) so I would take a lot of positives from this run... others agree? Something just wasn't right with that NAM run. I thought there was improvements at H5 which would argue for a much closer trek towards the coast. Better trough alignment along with more stream interaction. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 This is not happening lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, keno19 said: This is not happening lol It might, but I hope not...that would be rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The 12z RGEM is an absolute bomb with 965mb heading to the benchmark it seems like at 48 hours. Tough to tell with the Black and white maps. Gets 10 mm to NYC at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Also don't forget, unless it comes down heavy (especially during the daylight hours Tue) this really won't accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Also don't forget, unless it comes down heavy (especially during the daylight hours Tue) this really won't accumulate. If it's cold enough it will stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: It might, but I hope not...that would be rough Looks a but like the early Jan snowfall distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Something just wasn't right with that NAM run. I thought there was improvements at H5 which would argue for a much closer trek towards the coast. Better trough alignment along with more stream interaction. Go figure. It closes the southern stream vort off too far east this run near the BM restricting precip expansion further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 45 degree sun angle is like the equivalent of a late september sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 NAM/3KNAM both have a near benchmark track of a bomb with little precip west of LI...I know I’m in the minority after getting rocked on Wednesday, but I could live with it being East of me and my kids having school and my power staying on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It closes the southern stream vort off too far east this run near the BM restricting precip expansion further west. I strongly believe that will change in future runs... going to come down to the wire!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, keno19 said: 45 degree sun angle is like the equivalent of a late september sun angle Whats the sun angle at 2 am? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 A lot of times the NW side can be under developed when you have a strong kicker. Looks like January 16 is a good analog for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A lot of times the NW side can be under developed when you have a strong kicker. Looks like January 16 is a good analog for this storm. What winter storm name was that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I strongly believe that will change in future runs... going to come down to the wire!! You need the southern stream vort to shift further west for the best mid level deformation bands to shift west also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 How much precip is on the RGEM, seems fairly simialr to the NAM, maybe displaced 50 miles west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Whats the sun angle at 2 am? Asking for a friend. hmm interesting question anyone with a answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, North and West said: I know I’m in the minority after getting rocked on Wednesday, but I could live with it being East of me and my kids having school and my power staying on. . I get that and I think most here would agree; even here in E NJ where totals were very modest the impacts of the heavy wet snow were severe. That said a number of us in these parts have not had a big storm this year ( over 8-9 ), and many wouldn't mind seeing one. Still, no one is going to cry if that doesn't happen. And it doesn't seem to look like it will happen ATM for us. You're not in the minority for wanting better weather for your area. Being without power sucks. Especially if you have sump pumps....good luck up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: How much precip is on the RGEM, seems fairly simialr to the NAM, maybe displaced 50 miles west? No idea, need to wait for better maps. Looks like 965 on BM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 An LI special this late in the season would be something. I thought this could shift more favorably for those of us further west but a near miss appears more likely. However be on the lookout for last minute shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: You need the southern stream vort to shift further west for the best mid level deformation bands to shift west also. Is that how the early Jan storm played out? That storm was further baway but still pulled the deform to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: No idea, need to wait for better maps. Looks like 965 on BM? It does look like that yes...but seems decent precip makes it back into NYC-ish....tough to tell though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 RGEM is not a good as 6z further west. Looks more in line with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Is that how the early Jan storm played out? That storm was further baway but still pulled the deform to NYC. sort of? the overall large-scale trough, if measured from the center of the mid-level northern stream low to the center of the southern vort - is negative tilt. the jan 4 system developed early and got pulled into that negative tilt instead of being kicked out to sea like a lot of guidance showed. some of it comes down to sensitivity to convection, but it's also very much down to timing of both pieces of mid-level energy and the strength of their associated jets. SSTs are still very warm over the atlantic, which i think will play some part in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: sort of? the overall large-scale trough, if measured from the center of the mid-level northern stream low to the center of the southern vort - is negative tilt. the jan 4 system developed early and got pulled into that negative tilt instead of being kicked out to sea like a lot of guidance showed. some of it comes down to sensitivity to convection, but it's also very much down to timing of both pieces of mid-level energy and the strength of their associated jets. SSTs are still very warm over the atlantic, which i think will play some part in this. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 sort of? the overall large-scale trough, if measured from the center of the mid-level northern stream low to the center of the southern vort - is negative tilt. the jan 4 system developed early and got pulled into that negative tilt instead of being kicked out to sea like a lot of guidance showed. some of it comes down to sensitivity to convection, but it's also very much down to timing of both pieces of mid-level energy and the strength of their associated jets. SSTs are still very warm over the atlantic, which i think will play some part in this.The storm was within 30 miles of bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, USCG RS said: 3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: sort of? the overall large-scale trough, if measured from the center of the mid-level northern stream low to the center of the southern vort - is negative tilt. the jan 4 system developed early and got pulled into that negative tilt instead of being kicked out to sea like a lot of guidance showed. some of it comes down to sensitivity to convection, but it's also very much down to timing of both pieces of mid-level energy and the strength of their associated jets. SSTs are still very warm over the atlantic, which i think will play some part in this. The storm was within 30 miles of bm yup, passed *just* south of the benchmark, similar to the 12Z rgem, tho a good 15-20mb weaker in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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