Paragon Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Upton has 4 -6 inches for the whole area ( NYC and LI ) GEFS looked like 0.75" for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The closed low over the GL is acting more like a kicker so the heaviest precip is having trouble getting further west of the Hudson. That's why the best totals are further out on LI and in New England. Let's see if that changes today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The vort coming through the GL is a little stronger than on January 4th. So even with a slight tick west next few days, LI and New England will probably see the heaviest totals. But it could mean better totals around NYC than 0z. We'll see. But Jan 4th gave us almost the same totals that Suffolk County got, another 14-16 inches would be awesome lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 A handful of heavy hitters in the EPS last night. Member 3 is one example. Obviously not saying this happens, but one can dream. Note the second low that was mentioned yesterday in reference to the cluster chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 can you dig it??? 970mb thru the BM......uh huh http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: The track and heaviest snows on this looks a little more east than January 4th due to the stronger closed low over the GL. 0z EPS had warning levels snows over Suffolk. Do you think that closed low could be pushed west in later runs? Basically shift everything like 50 miles west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: A handful of heavy hitters in the EPS last night. Member 3 is one example. Obviously not saying this happens, but one can dream. Note the second low that was mentioned yesterday in reference to the cluster chart. Wow that really has an awesome look to it if that ens member worked out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: 50 miles further west has been doable this season 48 hrs out. That would push the 6 inch line closer to NYC on the EPS mean. There has been a slow uptick in probs run to run for 6+ from NYC east... NWS certainly has their hands full... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html#us smoke on the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: 50 miles further west has been doable this season 48 hrs out. That would push the 6 inch line closer to NYC on the EPS mean. Chris, where is it on the GEFS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: There has been a slow uptick in probs run to run for 6+ from NYC east... NWS certainly has their hands full... They can go with watches later today or tonight and just fine tune the warning areas on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, Doorman said: can you dig it??? 970mb thru the BM......uh huh http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Doorman ,,I understand the 40 / 70 line / benchmark is key,,,,can you expand on your post for us less informed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: They can go with watches later today or tonight and just fine tune the warning areas on Monday. Most definitely... if we see some more ticks west they will probably issue watches for 4pm package. They mention a low to moderate probability of a warning level criteria in their 4am package with a high likelihood of an advisory level which matches up with their current forecast of 4-6 inches. They also have the max snowfall set at 10 inches right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf Improvements across the board this morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Arws and Nmbs are pretty nice for the metro area SREF is going to be most likely be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Doorman ,,I understand the 40 / 70 line / benchmark is key,,,,can you expand on your post for us less informed ? OPC track forecast would put areas west of the metro (NYC) in the game Now we work on the mesoscale details such as QPF and with that 970mb pressure prog I expect the phrase bomb cyclone to get thrown around today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Doorman said: OPC track forecast would put areas west of the metro (NYC) in the game Now we work on the mesoscale details such as QPF Thanks ,,,one more if u can what is the " OPC" stand for ps I know QPF is liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 OPC Ocean Prediction Center...generates weather maps for the North Atlantic. Label is right on bottom of the charts Doorman is posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Capt. Adam said: OPC Ocean Prediction Center...generates weather maps for the North Atlantic Thanks Capt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I just want to clarify all models will be delayed an hour now right bc of daylight saving time?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: I just want to clarify all models will be delayed an hour now right bc of daylight saving time?? Matter of perspective. Some might say that is is we who are now "delayed an hour." Trends look decent overnight. Let's see what today brings!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Biggest problem last 24 hours is that the Southern stream vort doesn’t get far enough out ahead so the Northern stream kicks it out and there’s no phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if the warning level snows can edge west to Central Park the next few days. The ceiling for Central park since 1993 in March has been the 6-8" inch range. Probably helps that this one will be at night. At least a decent part of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Biggest problem last 24 hours is that the Southern stream vort doesn’t get far enough out ahead so the Northern stream kicks it out and there’s no phasing. But that can be resolved with the southern picking up a little more steam. We’ll see with all runs 12z thru 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 SREF has over an inch of liquid from NYC east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: SREF has over an inch of liquid from NYC east Steady increases. Nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Any nyc mixing issues or white rain issues ?Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 8-11 inches for the NYC to the east and just inland on the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Man if this shifts 50 or 100 more miles west,,,,,,,,hmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Man if this shifts 50 or 100 more miles west,,,,,,,,hmmmmmmm All we need is 50 miles and a cleaner phase which already it’s pretty close and then PB thoughts would verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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