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March 12th - 13th Scraper

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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EasternLI

EasternLI

Posted
Posted

Upton is leaning more towards a BM track it sounds like this morning.

"As compared to 24 hours ago, there have been minor shifts in both
northern and southern stream energies that will impact the track of
the surface low. The southern stream shortwave has trended
slower/farther south before emerging off the Southeast U.S. coast.
This would give the northern stream energy more time to phase and
cause the surface low to rapidly deepen as it passes in the vicinity
of 40N/70W. Given this trend along with the tendency for models to
bring storms in setups like this closer to the coast within a couple
days of the storm (where the sharper sea surface temp gradient also
is), thinking is that the storm center will end up closer to the
benchmark than what the average 00z track shows."

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Upton is leaning more towards a BM track it sounds like this morning. 


Main focus in the long term forecast is on a coastal storm that will
likely impact the tri-state area from Monday night through Tuesday
afternoon. Not much change in the average model storm track with the
00z run which shows the storm center tracking about 100-150 SE of
the 40N/70W benchmark Tuesday morning.

As compared to 24 hours ago, there have been minor shifts in both
northern and southern stream energies that will impact the track of
the surface low. The southern stream shortwave has trended
slower/farther south before emerging off the Southeast U.S. coast.
This would give the northern stream energy more time to phase and
cause the surface low to rapidly deepen as it passes in the vicinity
of 40N/70W. Given this trend along with the tendency for models to
bring storms in setups like this closer to the coast within a couple
days of the storm (where the sharper sea surface temp gradient also
is), thinking is that the storm center will end up closer to the
benchmark than what the average 00z track shows.

Rain/snow mix chances start towards Monday evening with snow
becoming likely Monday night across the area. Snow then continues
Tuesday morning with diminishing chances in the afternoon and ending
by Tuesday evening.

For QPF, increased amounts across the board by 0.10-0.20 inches from
the previous forecast and this may need to be adjusted upwards with
subsequent forecasts. Used the colder guidance for temps through the
event (close to SuperBlend). This should be primarily a snow event
based on thermal profiles and with most of it occurring at night.
Boundary layer temps and sun angle may however result in either a
mix of rain and snow or a non-accumulating snow during parts of the
daytime hours Tuesday or whatever manages to fall by day`s end on
Monday. Current forecast has the just about all of area at advisory
level snowfall. The exception is over Northern New London County
where a winter storm watch is being issued after collaboration with
the surrounding offices. More zones may be added later today,
especially if models show the storm trending towards the 40N/70W
benchmark. A trend towards the benchmark will also increase the
chances of frontogenetic banding somewhere over the forecast area,
so this will need to be considered as well.

Added to your post

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Brasiluvsnow

Brasiluvsnow

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Upton is leaning more towards a BM track it sounds like this morning.

"As compared to 24 hours ago, there have been minor shifts in both
northern and southern stream energies that will impact the track of
the surface low. The southern stream shortwave has trended
slower/farther south before emerging off the Southeast U.S. coast.
This would give the northern stream energy more time to phase and
cause the surface low to rapidly deepen as it passes in the vicinity
of 40N/70W. Given this trend along with the tendency for models to
bring storms in setups like this closer to the coast within a couple
days of the storm (where the sharper sea surface temp gradient also
is), thinking is that the storm center will end up closer to the
benchmark than what the average 00z track shows."

I remember the time when this never would have been written against the Euro this close to game time. Just goes to show that either they believe as they say still time to be N n W or not as much faith in the Euro as years past or both. Sounds the same as many who post on here .

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Could be a crushing if the streams phase in time, it’s close. But we’re running out of time to make it happen. If it’s not apparent by 12z tomorrow, this will probably be a Boston/maybe twin forks special. 

I'm not convinced that we dont get a big hit- the models have shown not to be too reliable here so there could be big changes with very short notice.  Like with Boxing Day

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