Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 surface lows on the GFS, pretty far apart. May be right but odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 End result for the 0Z GFS is that its a little NW of the 18Z run. Northern Stream was definitely sharper. Of note is that the Southern Stream has become better oriented for the past 3 runs. If we can get the Northern Stream to comply, this can be a storm for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ace said: End result for the 0Z GFS is that its a little NW of the 18Z run. Northern Stream was definitely sharper. Of note is that the Southern Stream has become better oriented for the past 3 runs. If we can get the Northern Stream to comply, this can be a storm for the ages. It’s getting close but the Northern stream has to dig a little more to catch the southern stream in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: It’s getting close but the Northern stream has to dig a little more to catch the southern stream in time. Yep and preferably to its southwest. As currently modeled this is nothing more than a nuisance storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 If all the pieces came together perfectly, what would this storm look like for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, sferic said: If all the pieces came together perfectly, what would this storm look like for NYC? Could be a crushing if the streams phase in time, it’s close. But we’re running out of time to make it happen. If it’s not apparent by 12z tomorrow, this will probably be a Boston/maybe twin forks special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s getting close but the Northern stream has to dig a little more to catch the southern stream in time. It should be noted too that a more negatively tilted southern stream would slow down the southern shortwaves west-east progression. Basically, we want a combination of continued better tilting of the s/w and/or more digging from the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: If all the pieces came together perfectly, what would this storm look like for NYC? An incredible storm and would definitely find itself easily in the top 10 snowstorms of all time for NYC. As JM pointed out, its getting late in the game. Ultimately I think its gonna be a moderate impact for our area and severe/borderline historic for SNE. We'll see how it shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Though NYC didn't make out too well though NW of NYC did see 2 feet of snow last March 14th,2017 did that storm have the energy phase like we want for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Could be a crushing if the streams phase in time, it’s close. But we’re running out of time to make it happen. If it’s not apparent by 12z tomorrow, this will probably be a Boston/maybe twin forks special. although doubtful, alot isnt needed imo... we have until late Monday evening before start time, nearly every consecutive run has improved the northern stream, hi res nam was a miss and still dropped 8-10+ on long island and 3-6ish area wide... the shift we saw from the WED storm the day of event, would b enough to bring the goods in... i just dont like the orientation of the diving Canadian vort, ends up pushing the southern stream southEast then half phase Well OTS... this is as simple as the southern vort closing on hour 30 allowing the PV to push our Lead vort SE instead of capture it and pull it along the trough base....easy fix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Though NYC didn't make out too well though NW of NYC did see 2 feet of snow last March 14th,2017 did that storm have the energy phase like we want for this one? Didn't NYC get 7.5 inches that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Didn't NYC get 7.5 inches that storm? Northern boros, eastern boros and LI did not fare too well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The precip shield is pretty tight and oddly oriented on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The 0Z CMC hits New England pretty good. Impact is more or less the same for our area. New run has the same general idea as the new GFS. More amped Southern Stream, Northern Stream is not as sharp. Just goes to show that we need a lot of things to go right to have a major event for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Central Park got 2 inches liquid equivelent worth of sleet and snow...7.5 inches total. Awesome storm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 46 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 2 surface lows on the GFS, pretty far apart. May be right but odd. On many (most?) models, there's a southern stream impulse that runs out ahead of the digging s/w and tries to initiate cyclogenesis pretty far out into the Atlantic before the low reforms closer in to the coast, under the stronger upper divergence. The CMC graphics on Levi's site show this most jarringly when the "L" jumps due west about 400 miles from hr 42 to 48. In a clean phasing scenario, that wouldn't make a huge difference, but when the interaction is more tenuous like we're seeing tonight, that initial lost ground likely affects the end result to some extent. I think it would help matters if we could dampen that feature out or feed it to the primary trough or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The RGEM looked pretty good for the area I didn’t see any talk of it... maybe I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: On many (most?) models, there's a southern stream impulse that runs out ahead of the digging s/w and tries to initiate cyclogenesis pretty far out into the Atlantic before the low reforms closer in to the coast, under the stronger upper divergence. The CMC graphics on Levi's site show this most jarringly when the "L" jumps due west about 400 miles from hr 42 to 48. In a clean phasing scenario, that wouldn't make a huge difference, but when the interaction is more tenuous like we're seeing tonight, that initial lost ground likely affects the end result to some extent. I think it would help matters if we could dampen that feature out or feed it to the primary trough or something. agreed, this feature is (usually) improperly modeled, and spawns our many double barreled model looks...than never come to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The UKMET is ever so slightly west of 12z it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 GEFS are improved from 18z. .5" well into Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, sferic said: EURO? not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 55 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: GEFS are improved from 18z. .5" well into Jersey. It should be noted they're worse than 12z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Does Euro come out at 2 tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Does Euro come out at 2 tonight? It came out already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Morris said: It came out already. And? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Does Euro come out at 2 tonight? It's an ENE special :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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