Zelocita Weather Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Seems relatively split guidance today, with the RGEM, new CMC, NAM (to some extent), and Ukie show a good snowstorm while GFS/EURO have backed off. But overall patterns looks good for the potential for a SECS throughout the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Remember the "attention everyone" thread when posting during this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Seems like a legitimate thread. I’ve been callin this storm for like a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 18Z NAM now wants no part of it seemingly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Not sure if this was previously mentioned but the 12z GGEM ensembles were all tucked into the coast. In fact it looks like the mean might have been skewed slightly East by one way East member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:54 PM, Sophisticated Skeptic said: Seems like a legitimate thread. I’ve been callin this storm for like a week now. Expand The pattern does support a big storm Rising PNA Rising NAO Rising AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:55 PM, Zelocita Weather said: 18Z NAM now wants no part of it seemingly.. Expand This isn't the type of storm where the long range NAM is useful. Plus it's been jumping around at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12z GGEM ensembles with a huge storm signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:48 PM, Rjay said: Remember the "attention everyone" thread when posting during this threat. Expand Rjay those rules apply to everyone except me correct ??? LOL LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 One of those patterns in one of those seasons - bet on the storm and you'll be right (details aside). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Gfs has a decent look... Now I'm getting interested! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 10:02 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: Gfs has a decent looj. Now I'm getting interested! Expand Pushed back to Monday night into Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 This thing pops at 0z, the writing is on the wall with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 9:00 PM, NJwx85 said: 12z GGEM ensembles with a huge storm signalTele's are great for this one. I think this is a bm storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 What's the deal with the sudden jump west on the GFS hours 78-84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 10:26 PM, NutleyBlizzard said: What's the deal with the sudden jump west on the GFS hours 78-84? Expand the northern stream vort is phasing into the negative tilt trof, causing primary cyclogenesis to occur farther west. the low doesn't actually jump W, the primary just develops there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 10:27 PM, purduewx80 said: the northern stream vort is phasing into the negative tilt trof, causing primary cyclogenesis to occur farther west. the low doesn't actually jump W, the primary just develops there. Expand What’s your thoughts on the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 10:27 PM, purduewx80 said: the northern stream vort is phasing into the negative tilt trof, causing primary cyclogenesis to occur farther west. the low doesn't actually jump W, the primary just develops there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 10:33 PM, USCG RS said: ... Expand basically that trailing junk along the gulf coast is what's prevent things from being a monster. keep that consolidated and dig the northern stream in more, and game on. trends are certainly eye-opening, but we're a ways off from knowing for sure. the northern stream energy is just coming into Alaska now, so perhaps we'll see some further trends in guidance tonight and saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 10:33 PM, USCG RS said: ... Expand Man that's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 10:50 PM, NutleyBlizzard said: Man that's close.Yes, my point exactly... We truly are close to a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Why Are TV Mets downplaying this except to say "has to be watched"? Also, if this threat comes to fruition can we say "white rain" won't be the dominant precip type for NYC/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 10:36 PM, purduewx80 said: basically that trailing junk along the gulf coast is what's prevent things from being a monster. keep that consolidated and dig the northern stream in more, and game on. trends are certainly eye-opening, but we're a ways off from knowing for sure. the northern stream energy is just coming into Alaska now, so perhaps we'll see some further trends in guidance tonight and saturday.Nice explanation... I think it's also about the timing and allowing the confluence to depart from our last storm. It all comes down to timing, but... We still have some blocking so I suspect the phase becomes cleaner in future runs Edit: I should never type and post without reading it over. This keyboard hates me ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 11:03 PM, sferic said: Why Are TV Mets downplaying this except to say "has to be watched"? Also, if this threat comes to fruition can we say "white rain" won't be the dominant precip type for NYC/LI? Expand Because it’s still early. There are no specifics. They aren’t downplaying. There’s no certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 11:03 PM, sferic said: Why Are TV Mets downplaying this except to say "has to be watched"? Also, if this threat comes to fruition can we say "white rain" won't be the dominant precip type for NYC/LI? Expand Because that's all it is right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Will tonight's 00Z runs give us much better insight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 11:15 PM, sferic said: Will tonight's 00Z runs give us much better insight ? Expand Depends how well the models agree. If I’ve learned anything from being a weather enthusiast nothing is certain until it’s actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Pretty impressive western cluster here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 11:23 PM, EasternLI said: Pretty impressive western cluster here. Expand That one member east really skewed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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