EastCoast NPZ Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS looks like it would give the beaches their 3rd warning level event this year. They'll be at like 500% climo after this. Only fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Our administrator ST said he was 100% drunk, so...... don't think he is too concerned. hehe!! Don't take chances, there are several stealth mods. We need to stay on topic and keep on keepin' on. Come on guys, this snowstorm is gonna hit us and hit us HARD with snow on Sunday night and Monday. Let's track it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Can someone knowledgeable please explain to me why at hour 54 the GFS transfers this from Eastern TN to just off of Jacksonville? Seems really far south to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 It just keeps on going.. That's the ukie btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 FFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I'll have QPF in 20... but thats def more than 0.5 QPF ETA: Just starting loading now... I'll let you know the SLP locations as soon as they come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: lol i don remember anything being this insane I was gonna ask those who have been tracking far longer than I have....Even for storms that have missed us, does anyone remember models being so volatile in the short range like this? This seems kinda extreme to me, but perhaps it's just my lack of experience, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I was gonna ask those who have been tracking far longer than I have....Even for storms that have missed us, does anyone remember models being so volatile in the short range like this? This seems kinda extreme to me, but perhaps it's just my lack of experience, lol I don't think it's as unusual as some claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: I'll have QPF in 20... but thats def more than 0.5 QPF I am wondering that myself. And what does temps look like around RIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Yea, the ukie has been rock steady. No reason to question the 0z run. Locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 00z UKIE SLP positions: 60 -- 1000mb SLP just south of the SC/NC border 66 -- 992mb SLP south of OBX ~100 miles or so 72 -- 980mb SLP about 100-150 miles east of NC/VA border 78 -- 966mb SLP about 300-400 miles E of NC/VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Well, gefs are better than 18Z at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z UKIE SLP positions: 60 -- 1000mb SLP just south of the SC/NC border 66 -- 992mb SLP south of OBX ~100 miles or so 72 -- 980mb SLP about 100-150 miles east of NC/VA border 78 -- 966mb SLP about 300-400 miles E of NC/VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Precip is yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Looks like 0.4 QPF but that is a weird QPF distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 That 1025 up north is not suppressive and generally good for funneling some cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like 0.4 QPF but that is a weird QPF distribution Looking at the low I had a feeling there might be a tight gradient inland but maybe the shield can expand West a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 968 and a 965 close to cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 There seems to be a slower trend in the guidance which gives you a better chance of getting some snow out of this. Time for the NB low to move further out of the way. The current analysis and satellite imagery shows a very ragged and disorganized system which is probably not helping the models much. I would not expect to see a good solution until maybe the 12z Saturday runs at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 can see one of the first pieces spinning its way through montana... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=usa-wv-1-48&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Clear and continued cold Sat night under high pressure. High clouds begin to increase Sun ahead of next storm system moving from the lower MS to the TN valley Sun. 12Z deterministic (except Euro) and ensemble guidance continue their southward trend that began yesterday afternoon keeping the storm system farther south with minimal impacts into our area. While the 12Z Euro trended north, it still has the system far enough offshore for any sig impacts to our area. The best chance of seeing precip looks to be 06Z Mon to 12Z Mon time frame. With the window of opportunity for seeing sig precip so small, it appears very unlikely we`ll be seeing any sig snow amounts with this storm. Overall, the prob of seeing 1 inch snow ranges from 20% across the north to as high 60% across Highland, Augusta, and Nelson counties. Precip should be tapering off Mon afternoon as the system tracks offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Yes, thanks for posting earlier this afternoon disco from LWX lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Looks like another slight North shift with the total QPF field on the 00z euro by 50 to 100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: Euro looks ****y. Misses the Carolinas by a lot, hits nova scotia. Snowsqualls and wind, very little accumulation. Misses the Carolinas? Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Misses the Carolinas? Huh? Yeah I meant it's E of HSE by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Amped said: Yeah I meant it's E of HSE by quite a bit. Considering there is snow accumulation in NC and VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 ] LWX experimental for the depressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Considering there is snow accumulation in NC and VA... Yes it does, but a not so good run. An inch or 2 is all the "pretty map" shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Data like this won't help clarify the situation much ... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KGBK (temp sensor appears to be in the gas flare) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 funny as DT showed last night euro came north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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