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March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE


stormtracker

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15 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

Our administrator ST said he was 100% drunk, so......  don't think he is too concerned. hehe!!

Don't take chances, there are several stealth mods. We need to stay on topic and keep on keepin' on. Come on guys, this snowstorm is gonna hit us and hit us HARD with snow on Sunday night and Monday. Let's track it.

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Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

lol i don remember anything being this insane

I was gonna ask those who have been tracking far longer than I have....Even for storms that have missed us, does anyone remember models being so volatile in the short range like this? This seems kinda extreme to me, but perhaps it's just my lack of experience, lol

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I was gonna ask those who have been tracking far longer than I have....Even for storms that have missed us, does anyone remember models being so volatile in the short range like this? This seems kinda extreme to me, but perhaps it's just my lack of experience, lol

I don't think it's as unusual as some claim.

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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z UKIE SLP positions:

60 -- 1000mb SLP just south of the SC/NC border

66 -- 992mb SLP south of OBX ~100 miles or so

72 -- 980mb SLP about 100-150 miles east of NC/VA border

78 -- 966mb SLP about 300-400 miles E of NC/VA border

 

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There seems to be a slower trend in the guidance which gives you a better chance of getting some snow out of this. Time for the NB low to move further out of the way.

The current analysis and satellite imagery shows a very ragged and disorganized system which is probably not helping the models much. 

I would not expect to see a good solution until maybe the 12z Saturday runs at the earliest. 

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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Clear and continued cold Sat night under high pressure. High
clouds begin to increase Sun ahead of next storm system moving
from the lower MS to the TN valley Sun. 12Z deterministic
(except Euro) and ensemble guidance continue their southward
trend that began yesterday afternoon keeping the storm system
farther south with minimal impacts into our area. While the 12Z
Euro trended north, it still has the system far enough offshore
for any sig impacts to our area. The best chance of seeing
precip looks to be 06Z Mon to 12Z Mon time frame. With the
window of opportunity for seeing sig precip so small, it appears
very unlikely we`ll be seeing any sig snow amounts with this
storm. Overall, the prob of seeing 1 inch snow ranges from 20%
across the north to as high 60% across Highland, Augusta, and
Nelson counties. Precip should be tapering off Mon afternoon as
the system tracks offshore. 
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