EastCoast NPZ Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, SlamSlam said: Models all over the place each run with far different solutions. I dont think we are even close to a solution. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Many different solutions maybe, but the one solution missing since last night is one that gives us legitimate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, SlamSlam said: Models all over the place each run with far different solutions. I dont think we are even close to a solution. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk We're pretty close at this point. Couple general ideas seem to be locking in. It doesn't look like a precip bomb is going to happen at this point so we can almost rule that out. All guidance is pretty flat out in front. I think the only thing left to nail down is where the stripe ends up in our region. Obviously south is favored but that could shift further north. However, an amplified phased and/or slow moving bomb like we got teased with a few days back is off the table imho. We pretty much need to hope for a best case scenario of .5-1" qpf stripe right through the region and we have to hope that it comes in a 6-8 hour period of time. Other than that it's just going to be a slushy boring and low impact late season event at best and a non-event at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 NAM brothers look like disaster twins. Nothing even close to being NAMed. Can’t even get precip to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 NAM is a complete disaster. Strung out, weakening shortwave. Looks more like a glorified frontal passage more than anything. Boundary layer looks colder, too bad we’ll have clear skies instead of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: NAM brothers look like disaster twins. Nothing even close to being NAMed. Can’t even get precip to our latitude. I've been too busy to post or analyze much but there really hasn't been much to get excited about the last couple days. There has been no trend for amplification out in front of the shortwave and all guidance looks the same through 0z on Sunday....flat as a pancake overhead. Nothing like the good runs we saw in the mid range. We're not going to get some huge shift @ h5 in the short range. We can still get a stripe but everything has to break right to even be a moderate event. I wrote off a high impact event at 0z last night but even before that the writing was on the wall. Figures the first time we get a legit 50/50 year it ends up stonewalling us. lol. Just one of those years where we can't catch a break. Not the first time and not the last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 lol...what a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: lol...what a run Yeah this whole thing went to crap in like 24 hours. Not sure where to go from here but I think my snow shovel can stay safely hung on my garage wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I'm a bit baffled SREFS are so amped and the NAM isn't. Usually they somewhat agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol...what a run yea i think it might be time soon. it's so far away now and NS is crushing anything. the 50/50 low is doing us in. if the 0z runs show similar fish storm outcomes, i think i'm out. i've never liked the look around the great lakes. we usually need a high there, not some upper energy diving down (which usually indicates potential for a miller B). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 There is absolute nothing good about a 500 pattern that looks like this. Trough is positive tilt, weakening, and with confluence to the north. Amazing how things have turned in just 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Out of curiosity, in March why are we relying so much on models? Or getting negative? Seems like what ive read from the more knowledgeable posters on here we're 50 miles here 50 miles there a lil faster here a lil slower there.. seems like every storm to me. We've all seen models show a direct hit 24hrs or less out then not hit.. we're in this thing until we look out our windows monday! Praying to wake up tomorrow to read chill and psu break down our next hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: There is absolute nothing good about a 500 pattern that looks like this. Trough is positive tilt, weakening, and with confluence to the north. Amazing how things have turned in just 24 hours. yea idk enough about la nina effects but it does seem like the general pattern of a trough shifted to the east has been what's done us in almost all winter. very little gulf interaction as well. actually, that look really does fit what i've seen from la nina east coast winter patterns. too much NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Almost got some snow in atlanta this run on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: yea idk enough about la nina effects but it does seem like the general pattern of a trough shifted to the east has been what's done us in almost all winter. very little gulf interaction as well. Crappy southern stream is pretty normal in a nina. But this year it has been extreme. The really weird thing about this winter is that south and east have scored even with a weak southern stream all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Plow'n said: Out of curiosity, in March why are we relying so much on models? Or getting negative? Seems like what ive read from the more knowledgeable posters on here we're 50 miles here 50 miles there a lil faster here a lil slower there.. seems like every storm to me. We've all seen models show a direct hit 24hrs or less out then not hit.. we're in this thing until we look out our windows monday! Praying to wake up tomorrow to read chill and psu break down our next hecs The only Hecs we’ll be analyzing tomorrow is trying to answer why the Hec did we bother with this to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Crappy southern stream is pretty normal in a nina. But this year it has been extreme. The really weird thing about this winter is that south and east have scored even with a weak southern stream all winter. Yup, we just got super unlucky. Time to put the nail in this winter coffin and move onto spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Crappy southern stream is pretty normal in a nina. But this year it has been extreme. The really weird thing about this winter is that south and east have scored even with a weak southern stream all winter. yea that may have just been luck (or they were just due). take those 2 events away and this winter really was a mess. i'm a little disappointed. i was into this storm more than usual because it might be the last chance. i'll check in for 0z to see if we can get some kind of luck, but yea...we need more gulf next year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 One good thing about the NAM, it improved the marginal thickness values. So there could be a pretty good frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Many different solutions maybe, but the one solution missing since last night is one that gives us legitimate snow. That is for sure. Well said. I think we still have a 50/50 shot of getting at least a couple inches from 0.9 QPFSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Out of curiosity, in March why are we relying so much on models? Or getting negative? Seems like what ive read from the more knowledgeable posters on here we're 50 miles here 50 miles there a lil faster here a lil slower there.. seems like every storm to me. We've all seen models show a direct hit 24hrs or less out then not hit.. we're in this thing until we look out our windows monday! Praying to wake up tomorrow to read chill and psu break down our next hecsThere is nothing to rely on but the models unless you want to close your eyes, shut down the forum, and forecast based off the clouds until Monday. I realize that the best people here can look at a model and realize it’s doing something unlikely/strange, but 90% of us would believe anything a model shows verbatim. Hence why we always fall for the bait. Myself very much included. For every storm we can say “oh if it had only been 50 miles south” or “more amped”. Reality is this is all predetermined and every run **should** improve in accuracy from the precious. Of course we aren’t out, but we very rarely go in a positive direction at the last minute. Maybe it isn’t the last minute yet, but the clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Thanks for the clarification however I'd disagree with the last minute part. Look, I'll be honest I've got nothing to offer to you pro's.. I've been on this site for about 5 min but I've been following for 3 or so years. I'll continue following, you all watch the models then when we get snow I'll update conditions. I've got 27 commercial properties in howard and Montgomery county. Thanks guys, you don't know how much i rely on some your posts and knowledge to make decisions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 19 minutes ago, 87storms said: yea i think it might be time soon. it's so far away now and NS is crushing anything. the 50/50 low is doing us in. if the 0z runs show similar fish storm outcomes, i think i'm out. i've never liked the look around the great lakes. we usually need a high there, not some upper energy diving down (which usually indicates potential for a miller B). I'm going to come clean. I'm 100% drunk. Idaf anymore. It's time to call it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I should probably lose my meteorology degree for posting this but the latest RPM has moved way north. Still not quite to DC, but the last several runs have been a flat non-system. I know, the RPM sucks. Grasping for straws here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I should probably lose my meteorology degree for posting this but the latest RPM has moved way north. Still not quite to DC, but the last several runs have been a flat non-system. I know, the RPM sucks. Grasping for straws here.The pretty colors don't even touch us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: 3 minutes ago, snowdude said: I should probably lose my meteorology degree for posting this but the latest RPM has moved way north. Still not quite to DC, but the last several runs have been a flat non-system. I know, the RPM sucks. Grasping for straws here. The pretty colors don't even touch us There was a time not so long ago where DC was in the pinks..now we can’t get the shades of gray to touch us..Ji is not even posting now..I am starting to think it may not snow at all..there I said it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS. Al Rise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Rgem looks better than nam Virga looks better than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Rgem looks better than nam Yes. And the GFS is ready to start. Let’s pull this together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 We lost the already lost icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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