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March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE


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20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
It's going the wrong way. Rgem and hrdps degraded some 18z. My confidence is waning. It looks like a compromise between the gfs and euro. Definitely 60/40 gfs but that's no good. Gfs was the northern edge of guidance and it was barely getting us. We needed a full 100% gfs win not a gfs leaning compromise and that's what it looks like att. 

Part 1 looks squashed, that much I can agree with. But arent we now looking at a potential reinforcing piece of ul energy crashing South on the backside of that wave that is going to slide by to the South? That seems to be our hope now to try and draw this back towards the coast or spin up a coastal right behind our parting wave to the South via a phase and pull it up the coast. I know these scenarios are a crapshoot but being that some ops are hinting at that happening Monday night and Tuesday as well as some heavy hitters on some individual ens members, I would think part 2 of the longwave progression deserves some attention anyway. Models are confused on the evolution and I honestly am unsure how things will unfold.

I could see that happening if the reinforcing energy is further south and the southern energy hangs back close enough to the coast.  Jan 00 did that (I think) albeit further down the coast and with a more negatively tilted trough.

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
It's going the wrong way. Rgem and hrdps degraded some 18z. My confidence is waning. It looks like a compromise between the gfs and euro. Definitely 60/40 gfs but that's no good. Gfs was the northern edge of guidance and it was barely getting us. We needed a full 100% gfs win not a gfs leaning compromise and that's what it looks like att. 

Part 1 looks squashed, that much I can agree with. But arent we now looking at a potential reinforcing piece of ul energy crashing South on the backside of that wave that is going to slide by to the South? That seems to be our hope now to try and draw this back towards the coast or spin up a coastal right behind our parting wave to the South via a phase and pull it up the coast. I know these scenarios are a crapshoot but being that some ops are hinting at that happening Monday night and Tuesday as well as some heavy hitters on some individual ens members, I would think part 2 of the longwave progression deserves some attention anyway. Models are confused on the evolution and I honestly am unsure how things will unfold.

What you just described never works here.  We need phasing to happen with the NS vort that dives down the Midwest and pull this up into the TN valley so it can come at us from the southwest.  That is how DC gets big storms.  I can count on one hand in 100 years the number of times D.C. got a big snow from a system that phased east of our longitude and got pulled back.  That's not how it works here. We are too far west. That works for philly sometimes and NYC to Boston often. That's a fail here 99%.  

Our only boat here is the vort diving in from the Pacific Northwest.  If it misses that the next Nas system is coming in way way way too Far East for us. It would have to dig and bottom out west of us to work. That means at the least into western Ohio and more realistically Chicago. It's coming down right on top of us and it's only 3-4 days out so I'm not sure it can adjust the amount we need.  

Your giving up on what is our only hope, for the phase to happen in the Mississippi valley and this to amplify up into TN of KY and jump to VA Beach. That's our win. This miller b crap is only going to help Boston. 

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7 minutes ago, snowdude said:

Here's the 18z CMC. NOT good! 

cmc18.png

No it’s not.  18z hasn’t been kind.  I had fun tracking any way.  Went from a max of 14 inches to just about zero now.  Made the week go by fast at least but not in any hurry to track again until next season. 

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

Me too Bristow, but the 18z GFS was so convoluted that I'll wait for 0z to stick a fork in this one.

Right.  I will finish this one model cycle before hanging it up. Our fate should be close to cement by tonight.   Funny but our locations really had a solid chance this time with everything being suppressed.  Next year maybe.  

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From WPC ( if this was already posted my apologies.. cba checking right now). Anyway, thought their take was at least a little interesting.

FINALLY...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT MODEL TREND TO SUPPRESS QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THIS COOL SEASON TO EVENTUALLY BRING THE QPF BACK FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME...LEADING UP TO THE DAY JUST BEFORE THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE MOST RECENT ECMWF MEAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAD SOLUTIONS SHOWING 8+ AND EVEN 12+ INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN DELMARVA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 3. OF COURSE...THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN... BUT IT DOES INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST A NORTHWEST SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.


 
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14 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

At this stage you have to wonder if the consensus is now forming vs the run to run flip flops.

I feel like the consensus was clearly just south of us the last couple runs. But it was close enough that we were in the game if a north trend ensued. Instead today there as been a further bleed south and i feel like it's slipping away. I said we didn't want to see this become a southern VA or NV border jack and that's exactly what we have now. That's asking for too big a shift at only 48 hours. 

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2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Ok, I looked through the best EPS members, and the onset time seems pretty uniform for the good ones

Best ones:

e42: Onset 6z Monday (drops 18-24" on DC)

e4: Onset 0z Monday (6-12" for DC area)

e7: 6z Monday (6-12" for DC area)

e13: Between 6z and 12z Monday (6-10")

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the same onset time we've been focusing on for a while now? 

 

I thought the original onset a few days ago was right after 18z Sunday 

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27 minutes ago, yoda said:

I don't think they are garbage... they are there and used for a reason.  Probably should check to see who is amped out of the members

That's true. There are 4 members showing 10"+ for DCA (1 member that goes from no snow to 7" in 3 hours in 3 hours lol), but on the contrary, there are 5 members showing nothing. That's a small number, but it comes from the SREF, so lol

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You know we're in desperation mode when we start posting the SREFs.  I don't think we're out of the game yet as people are claiming. The 00z run will probably bring some hope back and the models will start reaching a consensus. Unless they don't bring it back, in which case you could say that the consensus has already been reached 

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You know we're in desperation mode when we start posting the SREFs.  I don't think we're out of the game yet as people are claiming. The 00z run will probably bring some hope back and the models will start reaching a consensus. Unless they don't bring it back, in which case you could say that the consensus has already been reached 
Models all over the place each run with far different solutions. I dont think we are even close to a solution.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

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Excuse my ignorance as i learn but have the ingredients even formed yet? When will we be able to see this on the radar because these models are jumping around like numbers on wall street. In my uneducated opinion ive noticed march storms not being handled well at all by any model and if one hits one storm all bets are off for the next storm. Beer me!

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