March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

[ers-wxman1]

This is no longer even the type of system that we signed up for in the beginning. 

[Chris78]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

This is no longer even the type of system that we signed up for in the beginning. 

It's getting more complicated and we don't do complicated well lol

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

This is no longer even the type of system that we signed up for in the beginning. 

And we may be signing up for something different at 0z the way things have swung over the last 24 hours

[Cobalt]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

I think initially we were focused on late Sunday afternoon for onset with the overnight hours being the brunt of the storm.  But yeah at 5 day leads +/- 12 hours seems like a pretty normal spread.

I think one thing that may be bigger is that most storms tend to speed up 6-12 hours within 3 days lead time

For example: GB '16 was looking like the onset would be late afternoon (with snow until 6z Sunday), but the onset for the DC metro was closer to noon, 1:00 P.M, and snow lasted until 10:00 P.M. That's from memory of course, but it shows that this storm should be progged to be earlier, but it isn't, and is backing up in time. I agree with what you say though, since a 12 hour difference in onset cant be sniffed out by any different model 4+ days out

[Ralph Wiggum]

Probably not the most likely solution...wouldnt stress about that too much (especially with the low coming 200 miles west at 84 hrs! Lolol)

We have slowly been trending away from what some were incorrectly (imo) referring to as a Miller A and more into a Miller B or Miller A/B hybrid. We have gotten away from hoping a surface wave scraps us while going by to the South to more of a classic coastal jump to the lp due to ridging near the NAO region as well as hp starting to nose in and try to hang while confluence slowly pulls N with our 50/50. My fear with thks look we seem to be moving towards is the inevitable screw zone as primary transfers around to the South then waiting for the ull to capture the surface low off the coast and keep it from going ENE but rather N/NNE.

[87storms]

14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

You can't make this stuff up

 Swings around us and hits new england. Ukie also did this today.

i have a feeling it's that extra piece that's coming down around that 50/50 low.  the albany disco talked about it as well as a possibility of phasing with the low off the coast if things slow down.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

This is no longer even the type of system that we signed up for in the beginning. 

You are right. But it would be a fitting end to this 2 and half year run. Verbatim on the GFS Snow comes within miles of my house. Then East gets hit again while I sit here high and dry. I doubt the precip shield would be as small as modeled. At least that is the only weenie rule I have left to pull out of my hat.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

This is no longer even the type of system that we signed up for in the beginning. 

We've seen so many solutions, I can't even remember what it looked like in the beginning!  At the very least we'll remember how crazy tracking this storm was (and hopefully if/when things come together, we can have great memories of the storm itself! )

[ers-wxman1]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We've seen so many solutions, I can't even remember what it looked like in the beginning!  At the very least we'll remember how crazy tracking this storm was (and hopefully if/when things come together, we can have great memories of the storm itself! )

I sure hope so. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Probably not the most likely solution...wouldnt stress about that too much (especially with the low coming 200 miles west at 84 hrs! Lolol)

We have slowly been trending away from what some were incorrectly (imo) referring to as a Miller A and more into a Miller B or Miller A/B hybrid. We have gotten away from hoping a surface wave scraps us while going by to the South to more of a classic coastal jump to the lp due to ridging near the NAO region as well as hp starting to nose in and try to hang while confluence slowly pulls N with our 50/50. My fear with thks look we seem to be moving towards is the inevitable screw zone as primary transfers around to the South then waiting for the ull to capture the surface low off the coast and keep it from going ENE but rather N/NNE.

Let's hope not...I mean, what could stop that from happening? Just the timing of the transfer being right, or something else?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I sure hope so. 

What did you think of how the gfs jumped the low then reformed back where the best support was. Seemed off to me. More likely it doesn't run that lead wave out and deepens a consolidated low where the support is. 

[csnavywx]

Beautiful daytime snow-shower/squall producing environment showing up after the storm on Wednesday. H5 temps tank to -35 to -40C. Soundings look good for some picturesque glaciated CBs.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What did you think of how the gfs jumped the low then reformed back where the best support was. Seemed off to me. More likely it doesn't run that lead wave out and deepens a consolidated low where the support is. 

I thinks it’s because it’s no longer a consolidated storm that phases the shortwaves. Now there are these disjointed systems in the vicinity and then that far northern shortwave basically pops a miller b on the trailing front offshore. 

[ers-wxman1]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What did you think of how the gfs jumped the low then reformed back where the best support was. Seemed off to me. More likely it doesn't run that lead wave out and deepens a consolidated low where the support is. 

It makes no sense at all, neither did the NAM. Honestly there isn’t much with the entire setup that makes sense anymore. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I thinks it’s because it’s no longer a consolidated storm that phases the shortwaves. Now there are these disjointed systems in the vicinity and then that far northern shortwave basically pops a miller b on the trailing front offshore. 

 

2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It makes no sense at all, neither did the NAM. Honestly there isn’t much with the entire setup that makes sense anymore. 

It makes more sense for it to jump to the coast east of where it gets too in TN then pull the northern stream in and phase there. This jumping waves all over is weird. But I winder if the wave diving down is not allowing the vort coming across to amplify and is running interference until it's too Far East for us. 

[ErinInTheSky]

In case anyone was curious about the GFS snowfall:

 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

In case anyone was curious about the GFS snowfall:

 

Here's precip to go with it

Compared to last run:

[ErinInTheSky]

Precip does look marginally better.

[WEATHER53]

This is the junk run to cover the 10% probability outcome. Phase jobs are however 2nd in line to Miller Bs  as far as screwing D.C.  Just like to see a slowly increasing area of precip around Atlanta moving ne toward central NC.  That's the Gold track for us

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

This is the junk run to cover the 10% probability outcome. Phase jobs are however 2nd in line to Miller Bs  as far as screwing D.C.  Just like to see a slowly increasing area of precip around Atlanta moving ne toward central NC.  That's the Gold track for us

There is no mechanism to lift this north without a phase. The flow is flat. What would bring it up is a phase with the northern stream and amplification. If the southern wave stays inphased it will slide east. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The 18z GEFS cluster looks pretty far south of prior runs.

[87storms]

Saw a periscope from Rayno. He was mentioning that upper level piece dropping down from the GL as the area of concern, not so much the coastal.  It does appear that we’re kinda looking at a possible hybrid miller B.  We’re still in the game but it seems like the  trough is east of where we want it (for now).  Need the NS to be further south and the SS further north, yada yada, so we’ll see.  He mentioned it’s a close call for us.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The 18z GEFS cluster looks pretty far south of prior runs.

It's going the wrong way. Rgem and hrdps degraded some 18z. My confidence is waning. It looks like a compromise between the gfs and euro. Definitely 60/40 gfs but that's no good. Gfs was the northern edge of guidance and it was barely getting us. We needed a full 100% gfs win not a gfs leaning compromise and that's what it looks like att. 

[stormy]

37 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

This is the junk run to cover the 10% probability outcome. Phase jobs are however 2nd in line to Miller Bs  as far as screwing D.C.  Just like to see a slowly increasing area of precip around Atlanta moving ne toward central NC.  That's the Gold track for us

As I said early this morning. The jackpot is likely to be southern and possibly central Virginia.  Mid March dictates that accumulating snow would likely be over higher elevations in southwestern Virginia .  We should not be surprised considering the pattern that we have been in for 7 months.

[MDstorm]

The old "suppression and hook".    Ugh

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

It's going the wrong way. Rgem and hrdps degraded some 18z. My confidence is waning. It looks like a compromise between the gfs and euro. Definitely 60/40 gfs but that's no good. Gfs was the northern edge of guidance and it was barely getting us. We needed a full 100% gfs win not a gfs leaning compromise and that's what it looks like att. 

Part 1 looks squashed, that much I can agree with. But arent we now looking at a potential reinforcing piece of ul energy crashing South on the backside of that wave that is going to slide by to the South? That seems to be our hope now to try and draw this back towards the coast or spin up a coastal right behind our parting wave to the South via a phase and pull it up the coast. I know these scenarios are a crapshoot but being that some ops are hinting at that happening Monday night and Tuesday as well as some heavy hitters on some individual ens members, I would think part 2 of the longwave progression deserves some attention anyway. Models are confused on the evolution and I honestly am unsure how things will unfold.

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's going the wrong way. Rgem and hrdps degraded some 18z. My confidence is waning. It looks like a compromise between the gfs and euro. Definitely 60/40 gfs but that's no good. Gfs was the northern edge of guidance and it was barely getting us. We needed a full 100% gfs win not a gfs leaning compromise and that's what it looks like att. 

Part 1 looks squashed, that much I can agree with. But arent we now looking at a potential reinforcing piece of ul energy crashing South on the backside of that wave that is going to slide by to the South? That seems to be our hope now to try and draw this back towards the coast or spin up a coastal right behind our parting wave to the South via a phase and pull it up the coast. I know these scenarios are a crapshoot but being that some ops are hinting at that happening Monday night and Tuesday as well as some heavy hitters on some individual ens members, I would think part 2 of the longwave progression deserves some attention anyway. Models are confused on the evolution and I honestly am unsure how things will unfold.

All that said and it was a good post, we don’t do complicated very well.  This is complicated.  

[peribonca]

well at the very least this has been a fascinating situation to follow

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Check out the trends in the clusters.  The latest 18z run was the farthest from the few prior ones.  If the runs are all averaged, a low new cluster over obx is not out of the question imo.

 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Yoda got the 18z CMC yet?