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March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE


stormtracker

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What in the world is going on out there?? Lol This evolution looks different from any we've seen so far (at least timing-wise...and the overall track!) But it's still oh so close. Now I'm not that experienced in this hobby, but...this looks like some wiggity-whack stuff we been lookin' at while tracking this one!

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9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

For some reason, I don't think this is as bad as we think.  

It's fine. The gfs does its normal stupid issue of jumping a piece out with the transfer. Jumps south. Then east. Then runs out away from its upper support. Then tried to redevelop back where the low should be. I don't buy that. So if you correct for that nonsense it would have been a hit. 

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

With all this see-sawing, we're probably stuck watching this thing until 12z Sunday.  I've never seen such flip flops and differences between models this close in. 

Usually equates to a non event at this range. Hopefully we can truly pull a Hail Mary here- for this event, and the winter.

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What in the world is going on out there?? Lol This evolution looks different from any we've seen so far (at least timing-wise...and the overall track!) But it's still oh so close. Now I'm not that experienced in this hobby, but...this looks like some wiggity-whack stuff we been lookin' at while tracking this one!
GEPS showed many similar outcomes as ull captures the surface low. This isnt really new nor odd at all. Classic case of timing diffs and models keying on wrong sw's.
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3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

You can't make this stuff up

 Swings around us and hits new england. Ukie also did this today.

I think it was a step in the right direction.  We're running out of time to hope for a north trend, so now we might be best off hoping for a west trend once it turns the corner.

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22 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

It’s slower...that seems like it might be a key...slower=more time for a phase?

Ok, I looked through the best EPS members, and the onset time seems pretty uniform for the good ones

Best ones:

e42: Onset 6z Monday (drops 18-24" on DC)

e4: Onset 0z Monday (6-12" for DC area)

e7: 6z Monday (6-12" for DC area)

e13: Between 6z and 12z Monday (6-10")

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the same onset time we've been focusing on for a while now? 

 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Ok, I looked through the best EPS members, and the onset time seems pretty uniform for the good ones

Best ones:

e42: Onset 6z Monday

e4: Onset 0z Monday

e7: 6z Monday

e13: Between 6z and 12z Monday.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the same onset time we've been focusing on for a while now? 

 

It's slowed down by maybe 6 to 12 hours. A few days ago the GFS had a Sunday afternoon start

 

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Ok, I looked through the best EPS members, and the onset time seems pretty uniform for the good ones

Best ones:

e42: Onset 6z Monday

e4: Onset 0z Monday

e7: 6z Monday

e13: Between 6z and 12z Monday.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the same onset time we've been focusing on for a while now? 

 

I think initially we were focused on late Sunday afternoon for onset with the overnight hours being the brunt of the storm.  But yeah at 5 day leads +/- 12 hours seems like a pretty normal spread.

ninja'd by Chris78

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