stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 With all this see-sawing, we're probably stuck watching this thing until 12z Sunday. I've never seen such flip flops and differences between models this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: With all this see-sawing, we're probably stuck watching this thing until 12z Sunday. I've never seen such flip flops and differences between models this close in. I believe we need the energy in Canada to keep shifting west. That should let it come up the coast more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 why does the northern vort act to push the southern vort away instead of phashing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Nevermind, they are starting to phase at 84, looks this could be good for NE this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Um ok... why did the SLP at 78 just jump 200 miles west at 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 What in the world is going on out there?? Lol This evolution looks different from any we've seen so far (at least timing-wise...and the overall track!) But it's still oh so close. Now I'm not that experienced in this hobby, but...this looks like some wiggity-whack stuff we been lookin' at while tracking this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 You can't make this stuff up Swings around us and hits new england. Ukie also did this today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: For some reason, I don't think this is as bad as we think. It's fine. The gfs does its normal stupid issue of jumping a piece out with the transfer. Jumps south. Then east. Then runs out away from its upper support. Then tried to redevelop back where the low should be. I don't buy that. So if you correct for that nonsense it would have been a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Um ok... why did the SLP at 78 just jump 200 miles west at 84? My exact question...the heck was that? And then it tucks back in, fringes us, and goes up the coast? Uh, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Um ok... why did the SLP at 78 just jump 200 miles west at 84? Its a dual low structure. The western one just became the deeper one between 78 and 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: With all this see-sawing, we're probably stuck watching this thing until 12z Sunday. I've never seen such flip flops and differences between models this close in. Usually equates to a non event at this range. Hopefully we can truly pull a Hail Mary here- for this event, and the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 What in the world is going on out there?? Lol This evolution looks different from any we've seen so far (at least timing-wise...and the overall track!) But it's still oh so close. Now I'm not that experienced in this hobby, but...this looks like some wiggity-whack stuff we been lookin' at while tracking this one!GEPS showed many similar outcomes as ull captures the surface low. This isnt really new nor odd at all. Classic case of timing diffs and models keying on wrong sw's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: You can't make this stuff up Swings around us and hits new england. Ukie also did this today. Probably not the most likely solution...wouldnt stress about that too much (especially with the low coming 200 miles west at 84 hrs! Lolol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: You can't make this stuff up Swings around us and hits new england. Ukie also did this today. I think it was a step in the right direction. We're running out of time to hope for a north trend, so now we might be best off hoping for a west trend once it turns the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 See you next winter (assuming a nino). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Yes NE does well. Pulling the rabbit out of the hat as always. All of 18z has been wonky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Its the best gfs run of of the day. 00z will be happy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 18z CMC?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Each model run for the last two days has added new questions, new possibilities, but very few answers. I think we will be waiting for another 24-36 hours for any consensus. Too much chaos with the different moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The models as in all of them just can’t decide if there is enough room for a phase or suppression. So I think instead of going all in one way or the other they keep belching out a middle ground because it just doesn’t know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z CMC?? It runs about the same time as the 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Deck Pic said: It runs about the same time as the 18z Euro Hah. I know there is some wonky website that hosts the 18z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 18z RGEM at 54 (end of run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z CMC?? Not till 630ish on meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Its the best gfs run of of the day. 00z will be happy hour It’s usually our best run that isn’t crazy. While 0z Euro is almost always dr. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 22 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: It’s slower...that seems like it might be a key...slower=more time for a phase? Ok, I looked through the best EPS members, and the onset time seems pretty uniform for the good ones Best ones: e42: Onset 6z Monday (drops 18-24" on DC) e4: Onset 0z Monday (6-12" for DC area) e7: 6z Monday (6-12" for DC area) e13: Between 6z and 12z Monday (6-10") Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the same onset time we've been focusing on for a while now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowdude said: 18z RGEM at 54 (end of run). That doesn't look too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Phasing happens way too late on the 18z GFS, by the time it finally does, it's too late for us. Got to get it together earlier. Crossing my fingers for 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Ok, I looked through the best EPS members, and the onset time seems pretty uniform for the good ones Best ones: e42: Onset 6z Monday e4: Onset 0z Monday e7: 6z Monday e13: Between 6z and 12z Monday. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the same onset time we've been focusing on for a while now? It's slowed down by maybe 6 to 12 hours. A few days ago the GFS had a Sunday afternoon start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Ok, I looked through the best EPS members, and the onset time seems pretty uniform for the good ones Best ones: e42: Onset 6z Monday e4: Onset 0z Monday e7: 6z Monday e13: Between 6z and 12z Monday. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the same onset time we've been focusing on for a while now? I think initially we were focused on late Sunday afternoon for onset with the overnight hours being the brunt of the storm. But yeah at 5 day leads +/- 12 hours seems like a pretty normal spread. ninja'd by Chris78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.