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March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, cae said:

You're right about the value of model blends.  At some point I might put together a post on the (rough) mathematics of why it works.  One of the telling signs about this storm is that the Euro and GFS were so far apart so late in the game.  When that happens, I'm pretty sure it makes something in the middle much more likely.

Regarding the Euro, the last time it showed a good hit for our area, as far as I can tell, was 00z on March 5th, which was a week ago. 

I'm going through old model runs now and I'll put together a summary and write-up in the model discussion thread some time in the next couple of days.  It hasn't snowed yet so it's a bit too soon to write the book on this one, but it looks like the GGEM and ICON did well.  Another good performance in particular by the ICON.

I look forward to reading it thanks

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The problem is the system jumps way out.  Precipitation doesn't advect steadily it actually reforms and jumps along as the processes that cause lift move from one location to another.  Those processes can die out and not travel consistently.  The precip to our southwest is because caused by the initial wave that made it up into the TN valley with the upper level support from the first vort that dived down through the midwest yesterday. 

Normally when we get hit the upper energy coming across would then swing northeast from TN and cross just south of us, that surface system would then jump a low across the mountains and a new low would form in Eastern NC and travel northeast across VA beach...in that case we would get good moisture transport and convergence into our area and the precip from the initial low would continue northeast and even develop further as Atlantic moisture gets involved.  

But this time that low is dying out as a new low develops way out in the atlantic.  Too far east to get good moisture transport into our area.  The precip from the west will die out as the mechanism causing it dies out and the new system takes over.  Its more like a miller b that jumps over us just coming from a weird direction.  

IMO the jump is because of the system diving down on top through the lakes.  That system is pressing down on everything and forcing that upper system over the TN velley south then to swing way out east south of us.  Because of that jump the system in TN cant jump to where we want...it has no support there.  Instead it jumps SOUTHEAST instead of EAST....then swings way out into the ocean before coming north again once the upper system diving down through the lakes catches it and phases.  In essence its being suppressed for us.  Remove that system coming down on top and we would be getting a nice snowfall probably.  Mother nature has found a lot of ways to spit in our face this year.  

That stupid GL low sunk this whole thing!!!!! I mean of all times for that to happen...sweet mercy. When did the models start picking that one up? Smh Not that it matters...

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That stupid GL low sunk this whole thing!!!!! I mean of all times for that to happen...sweet mercy. When did the models start picking that one up? Smh Not that it matters...

The GL is never our friend... it could have been this time if it would have went southwest instead of southeast... but at last it didn't.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That stupid GL low sunk this whole thing!!!!! I mean of all times for that to happen...sweet mercy. When did the models start picking that one up? Smh Not that it matters...

yep, how often does a mid level low (or whatever you want to call it) over the GL work out well for us like what's depicted here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031212&fh=16

surfact lows are worse in the GL, but i'm pretty sure it would be better to have a high there, or just have that energy further west.  that look is very miller B'ish...it just happens in a different kind of way (the hook out to sea and back to new england kinda way).

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

Coming up on 5" here in Augusta County.  If we get another inch, we will have doubled our season total!  Sorry the most populous part of this forum didn't cash in on this since it would have made it a lot more fun in here.

IMG_8509.thumb.JPG.43b176f87bf2458febde613cbca92692.JPG

Closing in on 4'' as well in ROA. Continues to come down moderately. March sun is wreaking havoc on this thing potentially being a bigger deal. Very nice storm though for March standards.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, peribonca said:

That has to be the most painful radar ever. Wonder if 15-20 years ago this would have been the type of storm projected to drop 4-8 inches only to bust to a couple flurries

maybe, but i think clippers busted the most.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

radar shows the writing on the wall with this storm.  nw side of this whole thing is being shaved off by the leftover confluence and diving GL "stuff".  vort pass kinda sucked too.  too far south.  if it was headed through virginia we would have been better off.  all the good stuff to the south and east.  we're left high and dry.

next.

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

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paulythegun

paulythegun

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, peribonca said:

That has to be the most painful radar ever. Wonder if 15-20 years ago this would have been the type of storm projected to drop 4-8 inches only to bust to a couple flurries

If you want to go back in time and try to understand what weather forecasting used to be like in the dark ages, just look at a black and white depiction of the modern NAVGEM model.  

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hrrr for later on 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_7.png

my only complaint about the hrrr is that it's radar infused.  unless i'm wrong, current radar trends play a role in its forecasts.  that said, there has been some clues that we could get in on some late phasing.  snow tv is better than no tv.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

On the positive side, all of the brine that was laid down in the Baltimore area has worked great.  Streets are in fine shape at this time. :mellow:

 

MDstorm

They did a very good job here, brining to a fine WHITE sheen. Roads are holding up well. Torrential cloudiness was a challenge but Prince William County knows how to Brine.

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, 87storms said:

my only complaint about the hrrr is that it's radar infused.  unless i'm wrong, current radar trends play a role in its forecasts.  that said, there has been some clues that we could get in on some late phasing.  snow tv is better than no tv.

         Sort of.    The HRRR does assimilate radar reflectivity, but that plays a much larger role in deep summer convection and not as much in low-topped winter precip.

 

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