March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

[MD Snow]

6z hrdps, 12k nam, gfs, cmc, navgem, rgem, and icon all get a period of snow east of 95 between 0z and 6z tonight. 

[Jandurin]

Still trackin' that T

[MD Snow]

8 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Still trackin' that T

Absolutely. Not to mention this storms evolution has been fascinating. I keep things in perspective and know that at some point we're going to get the flush hit that we all crave. When it comes it will be all the sweeter given we've had such a rough go of it recently. 

[Ji]

Lesson learned. Never think it's going to snow if the euro never had it

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Absolutely. Not to mention this storms evolution has been fascinating. I keep things in perspective and know that at some point we're going to get the flush hit that we all crave. When it comes it will be all the sweeter given we've had such a rough go of it recently. 

I agree that the storm's evolution was something else. Just lol at where it ended up.

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Lesson learned. Never think it's going to snow if the euro never had it

The euro had it wrong too. Other than the "imby" aspect.

[Jrlg1181]

2.4 inches down in Waynesboro.

[RichmondTarHeel]

Snow is going to make it right to our doorstep before disappearing isn’t it?

[ErinInTheSky]

At this point even a short lived Flizzard would make me happy. Looks like some snow is tracking north right now.

[Interstate]

Next year some of the posters will have another year under their belts.  Lets hope they mature a little when posting.  Also, lets hope the 5 limit band is enforced more.

[anotherman]

The radar almost looks promising, but we know better (or do we).  Let the hallucinations begin.

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

The radar almost looks promising, but we know better (or do we).  Let the hallucinations begin.

Yes we should know better... once the transfer happens, our winds will shift and dry up the precipitation coming in from the south west

[RichmondTarHeel]

It’s already happening. You can see that the precip will slide just south of DC.  

[RevWarReenactor]

12 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

It’s already happening. You can see that the precip will slide just south of DC.  

Yeah, HRRR shows it well. What looks nice initially will quickly turn to disappointment as the mid atlantic anti snow force field does its job.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, Mdecoy said:

Yeah, HRRR shows it well. What looks nice initially will quickly turn to disappointment as the mid atlantic anti snow force field does its job.

Yup, northwest side of the southern precip blob is just getting eaten away. 

[ErinInTheSky]

 

You can literally seeing it pivot around DC. One of the times the DC snow forcefield seems to truly be a thing.

 

 

[87storms]

Looks like the Euros idea of continuing our snow drought was right all along.  Though it showed a whiff it never had the storm gaining enough latitude in time to do much here.

[clskinsfan]

There were some flurries falling when I left Winchester this morning. That HRRR run above is the epitome of a screwjob for our subforum. 

[Interstate]

Just now, 87storms said:

Looks like the Euros idea of continuing our snow drought was right all along.  Though it showed a whiff it never had the storm gaining enough latitude in time to do much here.

But didn't the Euro show suppression for the entire east coast?

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Looks like the Euros idea of continuing our snow drought was right all along.  Though it showed a whiff it never had the storm gaining enough latitude in time to do much here.

Its funny, since when the Euro showed snow within 96 or 120 hours this entire year, the GFS was right, but now when the GFS showed snow within this timeframe, the Euro was right. 

[Scraff]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Its funny, since when the Euro showed snow within 96 or 120 hours this entire year, the GFS was right, but now when the GFS showed snow within this timeframe, the Euro was right. 

Both models suck!  For now on when my family asks me if it’s going to snow, I’ll just tell them go outside and look up. If you see snow flakes...the answer will always be “yes...but Boston will have more”.  

[mappy]

If it makes you feel better, some northern WFO have dropped their totals. 

[87storms]

15 minutes ago, Interstate said:

But didn't the Euro show suppression for the entire east coast?

that's what i mean, though.  it never really teased.  it's idea of what's basically a quasi slider looks kinda right. 

[87storms]

i wonder how many professionals if only looking at this wv loop would think we'd be getting at least a burst of snow here:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=northeast-wv-1-48&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100

is it the atlantic that's not ideal, or that GL energy diving down, or a combo of both?  whatever the case, that coastal is not forming where we need it.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Lesson learned. Never think it's going to snow if the euro never had it

Euro did have it at range...then lost it around day 5/6.  That should have been a big warning flag as that was about when most long range threats went bad all winter.  

Another lesson...when the GFS/Euro disagree it almost always ends in a compromise.  A compromise between the 2 camps is always the best way to go and verifies better on average then going with one or the other at long or medium leads.  In the past that compromise was 60/40 Euro...lately its been more 50/50 if not 60/40 GFS but in the end it was a compromise, and when we NEED the most extreme solution (GFS) to win its not going to work.  We never had a situation where a compromise between all guidance was in our best interest and that was why I wasn't feeling too confident once we lost the euro around day 5.  Before that I am never too confident because its just too far out to know the details of the pattern that will determine our fate.  

[Buddy1987]

Closing in on 3'' in Roanoke, VA. Really sucks you guys couldn't cash in on this.

 

[mappy]

love your snow, hate your vertical video. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i wonder how many professionals if only looking at this wv loop would think we'd be getting at least a burst of snow here:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=northeast-wv-1-48&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100

is it the atlantic that's not ideal, or that GL energy diving down, or a combo of both?  whatever the case, that coastal is not forming where we need it.

The problem is the system jumps way out.  Precipitation doesn't advect steadily it actually reforms and jumps along as the processes that cause lift move from one location to another.  Those processes can die out and not travel consistently.  The precip to our southwest is because caused by the initial wave that made it up into the TN valley with the upper level support from the first vort that dived down through the midwest yesterday. 

Normally when we get hit the upper energy coming across would then swing northeast from TN and cross just south of us, that surface system would then jump a low across the mountains and a new low would form in Eastern NC and travel northeast across VA beach...in that case we would get good moisture transport and convergence into our area and the precip from the initial low would continue northeast and even develop further as Atlantic moisture gets involved.  

But this time that low is dying out as a new low develops way out in the atlantic.  Too far east to get good moisture transport into our area.  The precip from the west will die out as the mechanism causing it dies out and the new system takes over.  Its more like a miller b that jumps over us just coming from a weird direction.  

IMO the jump is because of the system diving down on top through the lakes.  That system is pressing down on everything and forcing that upper system over the TN velley south then to swing way out east south of us.  Because of that jump the system in TN cant jump to where we want...it has no support there.  Instead it jumps SOUTHEAST instead of EAST....then swings way out into the ocean before coming north again once the upper system diving down through the lakes catches it and phases.  In essence its being suppressed for us.  Remove that system coming down on top and we would be getting a nice snowfall probably.  Mother nature has found a lot of ways to spit in our face this year.  

[LP08]

I know no one will really care, but both NAMs bring some white rain into the cites tonight.  

[cae]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro did have it at range...then lost it around day 5/6.  That should have been a big warning flag as that was about when most long range threats went bad all winter.  

Another lesson...when the GFS/Euro disagree it almost always ends in a compromise.  A compromise between the 2 camps is always the best way to go and verifies better on average then going with one or the other at long or medium leads.  In the past that compromise was 60/40 Euro...lately its been more 50/50 if not 60/40 GFS but in the end it was a compromise, and when we NEED the most extreme solution (GFS) to win its not going to work.  We never had a situation where a compromise between all guidance was in our best interest and that was why I wasn't feeling too confident once we lost the euro around day 5.  Before that I am never too confident because its just too far out to know the details of the pattern that will determine our fate.  

You're right about the value of model blends.  At some point I might put together a post on the (rough) mathematics of why it works.  One of the telling signs about this storm is that the Euro and GFS were so far apart so late in the game.  When that happens, I'm pretty sure it makes something in the middle much more likely.

Regarding the Euro, the last time it showed a good hit for our area, as far as I can tell, was 00z on March 5th, which was a week ago. 

I'm going through old model runs now and I'll put together a summary and write-up in the model discussion thread some time in the next couple of days.  It hasn't snowed yet so it's a bit too soon to write the book on this one, but it looks like the GGEM and ICON did well.  Another good performance in particular by the ICON.