psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I saw a handful of huge hits . Maybe 5 or 6. Please no more tracking only for disappoint. I'm ready for Spring lol. Edit ... on the eps A few stupid big hits on gefs too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 LWX's probability maps (update just before 5PM) are whack right now. 54% of 2" or more in DC; 38% of 4" or more; 26% of half a foot and 16% of 8" with a cute 5% chance of a foot. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 It's not over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 i actually didn't even think the gfs looked too bad lol. in fact, if we can somehow get that precip hole to fill in better we're in the game. i'm not even kidding. a low forming closer to the coast could cause a surprise. not saying it will happen! just saying i can see why rayno would be hesitant to call it off with various pieces so close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I actually wouldn't be shocked if we had one more threat. Long range ensembles spit out some crazy solutions. One EPS member smokes D.C. nw with a 2-3 foot storm. Another fringed D.C. and jacks VA with 2 feet. There are others. The pattern isn't bad. But I know how late it is and I could care less I'm not rooting anymore I'm just pointing out don't be shocked if we get one more tease. Of course 1942 the area had maybe less snow then this year then march 30th D.C. got 12", Baltimore 22", and Westminster 32". #hailmary That a La Niña year? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 this look is probably going to keep some forecasters busy tonight... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031118&fh=18 of course, it's all wishful thinking, but it's a pretty close all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, 87storms said: i actually didn't even think the gfs looked too bad lol. in fact, if we can somehow get that precip hole to fill in better we're in the game. i'm not even kidding. a low forming closer to the coast could cause a surprise. not saying it will happen! just saying i can see why rayno would be hesitant to call it off with various pieces so close by. Problem is the temps. They basically suck. Real bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I actually wouldn't be shocked if we had one more threat. Long range ensembles spit out some crazy solutions. One EPS member smokes D.C. nw with a 2-3 foot storm. Another fringed D.C. and jacks VA with 2 feet. There are others. The pattern isn't bad. But I know how late it is and I could care less I'm not rooting anymore I'm just pointing out don't be shocked if we get one more tease. Of course 1942 the area had maybe less snow then this year then march 30th D.C. got 12", Baltimore 22", and Westminster 32". #hailmary It’s no longer a Hail Mary. It would be more like sudden death OT. Though how we got there is beyond me. I probably fell asleep on the couch watching the game...beer in hand...and shocked myself awake when I spilled it on my crotch. And here we are... eta: Just went off the deep end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Lol imagine if this played out. Looks horrific Edit: This is the precip to clarify basically nothing falls in DC, and what falls is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Problem is the temps. They basically suck. Real bad. yea that's a whole 'nother can of worms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 well at the very least it will be interesting to see how this storm plays out in the next 2 days and compare it with what the models were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 32 minutes ago, weathercoins said: LWX's probability maps (update just before 5PM) are whack right now. 54% of 2" or more in DC; 38% of 4" or more; 26% of half a foot and 16% of 8" with a cute 5% chance of a foot. heh Can someone explain to me how they come up with those numbers..lol. I in 2 chance of 2 inches. 1 in 3 chance of 4 inches. Those odds seem awful high to me. What do they base that off of because i haven't seem any models that really give me a chance at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 not sure if the rgem was posted but it follows the same general trend as the others. sourthern vort heads ots and gets captured/phases just in time to give new england snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 So, someone help me out here. Where does all of that moisture go as it moves east? Chewed up by the transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, paxpatriot said: So, someone help me out here. Where does all of that moisture go as it moves east? Chewed up by the transfer? it skirts mostly underneath and we're kinda caught in between the transfer, so i think we lose the lift we need. the rgem makes it look as if it sort of pinwheels around the coastal helping to tug it further north and probably also phases with that canadian energy. or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: So, someone help me out here. Where does all of that moisture go as it moves east? Chewed up by the transfer? It will get eaten alive by the crap Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It will get eaten alive by the crap Apps. And the space in between is us. Drying primary over the apps and eastern bombing secondary. The energy transfers but the precip is gone. New low blows up to our NE too far to give most of us anything. Our fate is evident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 At this point I’m 100% missing the “storm” but WPC just tossed everyone a bone. No idea what they are seeing. There are two images so click the tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: At this point I’m 100% missing the “storm” but WPC just tossed everyone a bone. No idea what they are seeing. There are two images so click the tweet. What's worse is they're part of this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What's worse is they're part of this region. they seem to think they'll be enough leftover energy from the ull to enhance precip on the western side of the low. it's not an impossible task as long as the ull is a little further north than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 It’s been really easy to accept this failure because I cashed out about 48-60 hours ago. I was all-in up until then, but it just started not feeling right so I took what was left off chips and called it a night. Only problem is my Dad is going to Maine for work tomorrow, so no doubt I’ll be getting updates from him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Can't wait for those mood flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mattie g said: It’s been really easy to accept this failure because I cashed out about 48-60 hours ago. I was all-in up until then, but it just started not feeling right so I took what was left off chips and called it a night. Only problem is my Dad is going to Maine for work tomorrow, so no doubt I’ll be getting updates from him! Did you used to live in RI or up in New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I'll share just the link of the ensemble spread here, wondering why the sigma blue and green swaths are mostly on the west and northwest sides of the centers? What does that imply if anything? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=eus&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018031118&fh=30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just 10 days away!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Can someone explain to me how they come up with those numbers..lol. I in 2 chance of 2 inches. 1 in 3 chance of 4 inches. Those odds seem awful high to me. What do they base that off of because i haven't seem any models that really give me a chance at that. LWX expected snowfal map says <1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: At this point I’m 100% missing the “storm” but WPC just tossed everyone a bone. No idea what they are seeing. There are two images so click the tweet. It's not a human forecaster that generates those. They're from a weighted WPC ensemble that includes a big chunk of SREF members. If you look at the SREF plumes, they're super snowy for our area, and that's reflected in the WPC products. To be clear, I don't buy them at all due to commonly-occurring SREF problems, but it's not due to an overly optimistic forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Does LWX have the radar on sensitive mode or is a huge flock of geese heading north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: It's not a human forecaster that generates those. They're from a weighted WPC ensemble that includes a big chunk of SREF members. If you look at the SREF plumes, they're super snowy for our area, and that's reflected in the WPC products. To be clear, I don't buy them at all due to commonly-occurring SREF problems, but it's not due to an overly optimistic forecaster. srefs, really? wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 storm eve. 33.2 / 22.1. clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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