Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: If you think Nina's are bad, you should see how bad multi-year nina's are. Aren't we already in one? Or was last year neurtal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Lol you can't predict next winter I can... It will be a winter like 2002-2003,2009-2010, and 2013-2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I see the kids were let loose this afternoon. Good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I know this storm is mostly a bust but HRRR looks interesting. Shows more precip filling into VA. Is this because the NAM now shows it phasing?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: This would be after sundown fwiw Given how much the two vorts have separated, there would be a decent amount of PVA in the region Monday evening... I could certainly see an after-dark dusting developing with temps right around 32-33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Even the 3km NAM is still jumping around with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 there's a little more phasing between the canadian and ull energy this run, but still too little, too late. could allow for a period of snow 95 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 if that ull vort can end a little further north then maybe we can have a late game miracle finish, but that's really just trying to find ways to make it work. the models suggest that it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, 87storms said: if that ull vort can end a little further north then maybe we can have a late game miracle finish, but that's really just trying to find ways to make it work. the models suggest that it won't. What if the ns energy dives in faster and the low develops slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What if the ns energy dove in faster and the low developed slower? For us to get snow the NS troff axis needs to be over Indiana or further west, I've yet to see a model show it west of the OH/WV border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Aren't we already in one? Or was last year neurtal? Neutral or really weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Amped said: For us to get snow the NS troff axis needs to be over Indiana or further west, I've yet to see a model show it west of the OH/WV border. It's interesting to see the low so far from any upper level energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 GFS poppin the low off Hilton Head? Head scratcher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Happy hour = sad hour. I mean maybe the last episode of snow tv for the DMV? I won’t give away the ending...but the good guys get their ass kicked the entire winter. Oh damn. Are we still in storm mode? Delete delete delete! Oh I mean Aleet Aleet Aleet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Happy hour = sad hour. I mean maybe the last episode of snow tv for the DMV? I won’t give away the ending...but the good guys get their ass kicked the entire winter. Oh damn. Are we still in storm mode? Delete delete delete! Oh I mean Aleet Aleet Aleet!! Time to start looking at retirement property in New England. Their worst winters are better than our best. I don’t want to die snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Time to start looking at retirement property in New England. Their worst winters are better than our best. I don’t want to die snowless. Just go to McHenry... they rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 47 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Neutral or really weak. Last year was weak, but the 3.4 tri-monthlies and atmosphere (precip patterns and enso precip index) clearly supported a Nina: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php The current Nina is on its deathbed with a strong equatorial kelvin wave propagating across the Pacific atm (as a result of the strong westerly wind burst in Feb). More westerlies west of the Dateline are in the forecast -- so it's only a matter of weeks before the 3.4 index responds and fades to neutral or even slightly positive. A third Nina episode isn't impossible next winter, but isn't exactly favored at the moment either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I can't believe with all the precipitation showing up on radar to the south of us in southwest of us that we can get fringed as much as the models look like we're going to be. Something is terribly wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, peribonca said: Just go to McHenry... they rock Been ages since I’ve gone skiing at Wisp. As a Mountaineer, we would drive out all the time in mega lake effect events and hit fresh pow. So much love for that area. Great spot if you like winter. No doubt. Never fails out there. Ever. I don’t even know how they consider that part of MD. That area should be part of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 18Z NAM, 3K, RGEM and GFS are all horrifying. Bring on the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Rayno and Bastsrdi are BFFs. Nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: 18Z NAM, 3K, RGEM and GFS are all horrifying. Bring on the torch. Gfs throws some snow Thursday night. Lol. #neversurrender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Last year was weak, but the 3.4 tri-monthlies and atmosphere (precip patterns and enso precip index) clearly supported a Nina: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php The current Nina is on its deathbed with a strong equatorial kelvin wave propagating across the Pacific atm (as a result of the strong westerly wind burst in Feb). More westerlies west of the Dateline are in the forecast -- so it's only a matter of weeks before the 3.4 index responds and fades to neutral or even slightly positive. A third Nina episode isn't impossible next winter, but isn't exactly favored at the moment either. There was a good bit of discussion about this in the SE forum, because the SE ridge kicked our butt last winter pretty much all winter long. It seems that it was right on the borderline between neutral and a very weak Nina, but regardless, apparently the upper air pattern was strongly Nina-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Something is terribly wrong Agreed. We live in a snow hell hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z NAM, 3K, RGEM and GFS are all horrifying. Bring on the torch. It's the ultimate tease to end the winter with. Nice blob of moisture heading right at us only to hit a brick wall, and then see Boston get 2 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I actually wouldn't be shocked if we had one more threat. Long range ensembles spit out some crazy solutions. One EPS member smokes D.C. nw with a 2-3 foot storm. Another fringed D.C. and jacks VA with 2 feet. There are others. The pattern isn't bad. But I know how late it is and I could care less I'm not rooting anymore I'm just pointing out don't be shocked if we get one more tease. Of course 1942 the area had maybe less snow then this year then march 30th D.C. got 12", Baltimore 22", and Westminster 32". #hailmary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I can't believe with all the precipitation showing up on radar to the south of us in southwest of us that we can get fringed as much as the models look like we're going to be. Something is terribly wrong Yeah. I’ve been looking at GOES wv loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I saw a handful of huge hits . Maybe 5 or 6. Please no more tracking only for disappoint. I'm ready for Spring lol. Edit ... on the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I actually wouldn't be shocked if we had one more threat. Long range ensembles spit out some crazy solutions. One EPS member smokes D.C. nw with a 2-3 foot storm. Another fringed D.C. and jacks VA with 2 feet. There are others. The pattern isn't bad. But I know how late it is and I could care less I'm not rooting anymore I'm just pointing out don't be shocked if we get one more tease. Of course 1942 the area had maybe less snow then this year then march 30th D.C. got 12", Baltimore 22", and Westminster 32". #hailmary Yep. I am a bit on tilt right now. But we can still score into early April. At least those of us to the north and west. But with the way the past 2+ years have gone I wouldnt put a dollar on a 100-1 bet that we score a 3 inch event. Hopefully the deck gets completely reshuffled over the summer and we have a great winter next year. Statistically speaking 3 winters in a row like this in my area are just about impossible. I mean. The past 2 years rank in the top 5 worst winters of all time at OKV. There is no chance we have another winter like that next year. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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