BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The euro advects snow up the eastern spine of the mountains then dissipates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Everyone needs to just calm down. We all suck at winter. Maybe we're too good for winter. Maybe we've reached a higher plain of existence and we just haven't realized it. We're not failing winter is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I’m pretty stoked about snow tv tomorrow. Or is that off the table? Euro is starting. Let’s do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Looks like the Euro just crapped the bed. At least we have one thing to root for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 There is some solid filling in of precip in eastern TN that it moving ene. Along the gulf heavy showers and rain are stretched out and shutting off anything to the north. Would like to see the effect to the north if and when that line lets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 It's just crazy that this winter has popped sub 980 lows like it's nothing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Euro looks similar to the NAM and RGEM with a band up 81 for a couple of hours. Snow tv at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: So, how about that 2:00 Euro??? The euro has been a useless biotch all winter. She's like a former hot model with an attitude problem that no one wants to tell to her face has bipolar disorder and needs meds. She needs to shave, fix herself up, and put in a little more effort next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 31 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: There are a few on here who are great discussers of weather but bad predictors of it. They can run circles around almost all of us discussing and showing what is needed for a good snow around here but they cannot accurately forecast an upcoming potential, or not, event . Comments badgering others like that are unfounded. Anything south of the Mason Dixon Line is tough to predict snow. Throw in the Appalachians, local terrain influences and a slow elevation decline to the Potomac and the Bay and you have yourself a cluster on most occasions barring a widespread arctic intrusion. Did you know that a 40 mile shift in the R/S line east or west along I-95 in our area will impact more than 6 million people? That area is the toughest to predict, with the most consequences. Tough enough that several of us tried to capture uncertainties with probabilistic products aimed at helping decision makers better understand risk uncertainty. The smartest people I know and work with, both at national centers, field offices, and at the executive level all understand the difficulty and biases in the models. It’s inexact science! People bust forecasts even in San Diego. I have found this forum to be a great source of information and I greatly appreciate people that take time out of their schedules to post detailed discussions. A weather forecast begins with a discussion, sometimes resolving differing opinions. It happens here and within the local forecast office. It’s healthy! With all the Met training I’ve done over 18 years, I find this to be a great vehicle to tracking, and understanding atmospheric patterns and I find the discussions to be excellent. Especially PSU, Chill, and many others. Know you are all appreciated. I’ve also picked up a few friends, mentee’s, and those younger aspiring Mets that I can help into the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Now, screw the actual system. What about the bursts of snow Wednesday? Seems to be interesting enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It is what it is. No, no, it has NEVER been that white all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Ok I'm out. The real rant comes tonight. This was just a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, wxdude64 said: No, no, it has NEVER been that white all winter updated screenshot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You confuse discussion for forecast. We don't waste time with a forecast 10 days out. That's stupid. We all know no one has the ability to make accurate detailed forecasts at that range. General pattern guidance is all. Then once inside range several on here give excellent forecasts but I feel like we're honest enough with ourselves that we know those forecasts can and will bust often so we continue to track and discuss the options even if we think it's going to fail. I said many days ago I was at 40% on my confidence. And that was when things looked way better with support from all guidance. I never got above that. Then around 3 days ago I said I doubted this would happen. That's a forecast. But I still tracked and discussed because it's fun and maybe I'm wrong. Just because people discuss a storm threat doesn't mean they think it will hit. You did think this would hit so what are you going on about anyways? You bust just as much as anyone else. And there is nothing wrong with that. We all do. But get off your high horse and stop acting like a pompous arse who knows better when your just giving an educated guess like the rest of us. You just use differently methodology. lol Do you put out NOAA's seasonal forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: updated screenshot LOL, I knew it was an error of some sort, just to hard not to take a shot at. That said, puts me in a 3-5 range. I said earlier if I can get a 0.9 and just get above last years disaster and into 3rd crappiest snow total since 1979 I'll be happy. Would need 4.4 to hit double digits. Average is 26-27 a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, wxdude64 said: LOL, I knew it was an error of some sort, just to hard not to take a shot at. That said, puts me in a 3-5 range. I said earlier if I can get a 0.9 and just get above last years disaster and into 3rd crappiest snow total since 1979 I'll be happy. Would need 4.4 to hit double digits. Average is 26-27 a year. I would be happy for you, but you would then have to carry the vibe of the forums. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The euro advects snow up the eastern spine of the mountains then dissipates. That’s been a signal on the models for days but I think it’s becoming clearer that the reason it’s drying up is because we’re stuck between the GL energy, ull, and coastal. Simply put, the timing is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I know this storm is mostly a bust but HRRR looks interesting. Shows more precip filling into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 gotta love all the epic blow ups. frustrating right? Especially after all the promises the models showed us in the long range all winter long. see ya all next season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: lmao If you cut that by 1/4 and I got half of that I would be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 DCA srefs off the hook. Yeah! Better than real snowSent from my SM-T580 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Who cares. We don't obsess when bufallo gets snow. I'm up in New Jersey and used to get pissed when they got so much more snow. It's a waste of time. Being further north and east they can't help but cash in a lot more. Anyway, their springs suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Ugh. We know the weather is a result of physics. It's not actually luck. But it is chaos to a degree and that's what we mean. We were always likely to end up with less snow then some other places due to the issues with a Nina. But typically with cold Nina years we find a way to get some hits. A flush clipper hit. A southern wave. A caboose frontal wave. Something. We don't typically beat average but to get a total fail in a year where systems were flying all around us with cold much of the time is rare. So no it wasn't luck. The storms did what they did because of physical processes. But with very minor perturbations we could have done much better. It was bad luck for us that every storm managed to barely miss us. Or bad luck we happen to live where the epic snow hole is. It's not always us. We just had an epic run where we were among the leaders nationally in above climo snow for a 3 year period. Now we've been on the other end for 2 years. But the frustration is this wasn't some awful pattern year like 2002, 2008, 2012 where we were doomed to fail. Things just didn't work on a micro level this year. When storms miss by 500 miles the pattern sucks. When they keep missing by 50 miles then we just sucked at the minor closing details. Definitely not, that comes next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Lol you can't predict next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 If you think Nina's are bad, you should see how bad multi-year nina's are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Definitely not, that comes next winter. It will be fun in here if we get a super Nino and it's like 1998 or 1973. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 This would be after sundown fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It will be fun in here if we get a super Nino and it's like 1998 or 1973. Lol. Oh heck no. Don't even joke like that! Lol Besides, those two Niños were two decades apart. And the kicker? The ones that came before those two (1966 and 1983) produced a blizzard. It's kinda like every other Super Niño has a blizzard. The other ones had zilch! But you'd think we're not due for one for awhile seeing as we just had one in 2016... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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