March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

[smokeybandit]

Well, I'd be giddy.  Maybe others wouldn't.

[pazzo83]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If I know his style (which is why I got turned off to him) JB will simply shift his focus to New England and declare victory. "I saw the major amplification from a week out" conveniently ignoring that the storm hit 500 miles away from his intended target. 

yep - some of us learned to pretty much disregard JB as a credible forecaster years ago

[Interstate]

Baltimore. Brining the roads???  Really!!!

[Scraff]

Just now, Interstate said:

Baltimore. Brining the roads???  Really!!!

Now that’s what I call trolling!

[peribonca]

Going to be fascinating/sad watching that slug of moisture going through WVa/NVa aimed right at us evaporate in front of our eyes as depicted on NAM at hours 21-30

[Jandurin]

Baltimore. Brining the roads???  Really!!!

L M A O

[psuhoffman]

Great the upper low to our south is becoming more amplified but it's also being forced south and out by the northern stream diving down on top of it. So it won't matter. A week out that feature wasn't there and this looked great. Had that not been there this would have been good. 

[clskinsfan]

The 3k still wants to snow on us out here west of town. It has had a very similar solution the past 3 runs in that regard. It is white rain with surface temps in the low 30's. But snow.

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Great the upper low to our south is becoming more amplified but it's also being forced south and out by the northern stream diving down on top of it. So it won't matter. A week out that feature wasn't there and this looked great. Had that not been there this would have been good. 

Going to be some radar hallucinations before everything sinks south

[ers-wxman1]

And there is the fitting end to this historically atrocious and mind numbing winter. Can’t beat a snow map like this. And on that note, I’M OUT. White flag or I should say white snowhole has been raised!

 

[osfan24]

That's incredible. The sooner this all ends, the better at this point. Just have to recharge over the next however many months and hope for a Nino come next winter.

[Scraff]

14 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

And there is the fitting end to this historically atrocious and mind numbing winter. Can’t beat a snow map like this. And on that note, I’M OUT. White flag or I should say white snowhole has been raised!

 

Places in NC will get more snow in one day than we’ve seen all winter.  

I’m moving south next year...where it snows!

 

[87storms]

I think that 50/50 low may have hung around too long. It allowed that piece of energy from way up in Canada to dive in where we’d probably be better off just having a a nice high.  That piece helps New England by maybe giving a late phase with the already developed coastal low, but leaves us caught in between those 2 stages.  I miss having a standard overrunning event.  Hopefully we get more of those next winter.

[Ian]

This is tough one even tho it's March. Bottom line is we suck. 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Ian said:

This is tough one even tho it's March. Bottom line is we suck. 

Our only problem this winter was ratios. It was a KILLER tracking season but that seems to be offset with about a 1 on the production level. It was a 10 to 1 ratio. Can't recall any previous winter that made me work so hard for no compensation. I'm going to apply for snowstamps so they can deliver snow for free because my ass is broke as hell after this year.  

[Bob Chill]

Yea, gfs has put out another map that fits PERFECTLY 

[frd]

15 minutes ago, Ian said:

This is tough one even tho it's March. Bottom line is we suck. 

Even the SWW event did not help and neither did the historic NAO . On to the El Nino please. 

Seems only a STJ will do us good here in the DC and Baltimore areas.  

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Even the SWW event did not help and neither did the historic NAO . On to the El Nino please. 

Seems only a STJ will do us good here in the DC and Baltimore areas.  

The NAO never was historic.  It was only modeled to do so.

[peribonca]

I've moved on to hoping for over-performing snow showers Wednesday night! Might be the highlight of winter

[HighStakes]

37 minutes ago, Ian said:

This is tough one even tho it's March. Bottom line is we suck. 

Some are worse than others. This was a bad one. Everything on the table was there to make this work out and we lost it. 

[peribonca]

CMC looks even worse than GFS (if that's possible). We get danced around completely.

[Z-Cast]

Story of this winter. lol.

[87storms]

all you have to do is look at the 500 maps.  i'm a rookie, but i can't recall too many big storms that worked out with a setup like what we're seeing over the great lakes, not to mention that ull vort is beelining for the carolinas.  the traffic pattern is off the coast which is a la nina trait.  as others have said, we need a better stj, otherwise we're relying on clippers/maulers, and bombed out coastals.  we need things to be easier here.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031112&fh=36

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031112&fh=54

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The NAO never was historic.  It was only modeled to do so.

I don't know what you were looking at but the blocking has been beautiful. We have one of the strongest 500 my high pressures ever recorded move right across Greenland then go through periods of weakening and reloading as any -nao will do. Right now there is a perfect rex block.  Just isolating the nao space you would think the first 2 weeks of march this year was amazing. 

But the nao can't fix the stj. And it inherited an absolute mess across the eastern Conus in temps that ruined storm 1. Then storm 2 was a miller b. Storm 3 the stj was weaker then we needed then a poorly timed vort dives down on top to suppress it for us. None of that has anything to do with blocking. There are other moving parts. We don't get snow just because of blocking. 

I know by surface pressures the nao never tanked to historic levels but by h5 measures it did. And the real look at it has been excellent. Surface pressures, one way some measure, isn't the best indication of a good nao pattern. A west based block at h5 is better for snow but won't show up as great on a surface pressure derived nao index. 

But we had a LOT of things go wrong the last week. The nao wasn't one of them. We had 3 systems forced under us and none worked out for various reasons. The nao did its job. The other factors all failed us. This isn't unusual. 1996 is an aberration.  Even in ninas with blocking we tend to struggle more then blocking without a Nina. 2011 was a perfect example.  

[RDM]

With all due respect to the Mods and the "Storm Mode" intent, give the proverbial evaporation of said storm, this sucks.  Hell, I didn't even put the snow blade back on the Kubota as some effort to appease the snow gods, however feeble that effort was, so it appears... 

[87storms]

ull vort does look good, though...just too far south...and things ultimately develop too far south and east off the coast...

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=northeast-wv-1-48&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100

[Ian]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Our only problem this winter was ratios. It was a KILLER tracking season but that seems to be offset with about a 1 on the production level. It was a 10 to 1 ratio. Can't recall any previous winter that made me work so hard for no compensation. I'm going to apply for snowstamps so they can deliver snow for free because my ass is broke as hell after this year.  

This one had plenty of red flags just like everything else this winter. I thought the pattern was working things out.. it seemed to in other places. This is bad luck for us as much as anything else esp if we get through this pattern with almost nothing. But at the same time Ninas generally blow. Silly interests we have. 

[Ian]

53 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The NAO never was historic.  It was only modeled to do so.

Don't really need a historic NAO... this blocking period was quite ideal in location and evolution. I do wonder how much the change from going neg to pos in longer range stuff to going neg to neutral or almost neutral then getting the NAO to drop again matters. Once that signal started showing up things became increasingly complicated on the modeling.. although tbh I am not sure how much it matters to not change phase and still rise quite a bit.  Maybe less than worth considering.  

These sorta three storm patterns are common in a -NAO regime as well.. for whatever reason we often like the third if not the first. 

Phasing and related are always complicated for us. While a fat STJ isn't a prereq for a good snow here it does tend to make things simpler. Simpler is how we score. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

8 minutes ago, Ian said:

Don't really need a historic NAO... this blocking period was quite ideal in location and evolution. I do wonder how much the change from going neg to pos in longer range stuff to going neg to neutral or almost neutral then getting the NAO to drop again matters. Once that signal started showing up things became increasingly complicated on the modeling.. although tbh I am not sure how much it matters to not change phase and still rise quite a bit.  Maybe less than worth considering.  

These sorta three storm patterns are common in a -NAO regime as well.. for whatever reason we often like the third if not the first. 

Phasing and related are always complicated for us. While a fat STJ isn't a prereq for a good snow here it does tend to make things simpler. Simpler is how we score. 

The NAO is almost positive now.  It barely dropped past -1 all month.

eta: ~-1.5 min

[Hurricanegiants]

I would feel better at this point begrudgingly if the National Weather Service just took out the yellowish color over our area to indicate “Hazardous Weather Conditions”. Just keep it the color white. It’s patronizing to say the least.