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March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE


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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I think the fact that the globals aren’t locked in yet might explain why the nam is all over the place.  I’m much more interested in what the globals say until maybe tomorrow.

the southern low just never was able to get its act together, so the more dominate northern one just kicked it out. weird solution. 

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The 3K doesn't exactly having me do hand flips either. All I can say about both is just look at how much the surface and 500's is dancing around. Should give you a hint how much weight you should put on them at this time.

ha, exactly what i said. its a mess. very disjointed. 

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9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The 3K doesn't exactly having me do hand flips either. All I can say about both is just look at how much the surface and 500's is dancing around. Should give you a hint how much weight you should put on them at this time.

Agree. The surface and 500's make no sense. It's bouncing around all over the place. Can't look at it at all. Toss it.

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4 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

Agree. The surface and 500's makes no sense. It's bouncing around all over the place. Can't look at it at all. Toss it.

ha, yeah the 3k, a surface low pops in texas and then literally bounces around for 24 hours before making a move to the coast. 

edit: then bounces down to the gulf coast. :lol: 

what a disaster. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

the southern low just never was able to get its act together, so the more dominate northern one just kicked it out. weird solution. 

Say wha?? Now the past few days, it's been just the SS and NS not joining up (often because the NS had been too slow?)...but the SS has at least come in strong to start. But now the NAM makes the SS that weak that even a faster NS that we've needed just kicks it out? Haven't seen THAT one yet...lol

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

3k is a mess too. Southern wave is getting to the coast as the upper low is still near Missouri. 

im a fan of the low in western NC at hr 49, then the panhandle of FL at hr 51 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Say wha?? Now the past few days, it's been just the SS and NS not joining up (often because the NS had been too slow?)...but the SS has at least come in strong to start. But now the NAM makes the SS that weak that even a faster NS that we've needed just kicks it out? Haven't seen THAT one yet...lol

Yup, its a completely new solution. At least on the 12K. The 3K is a hot mess. 

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5 minutes ago, mappy said:

ha, yeah the 3k, a surface low pops in texas and then literally bounces around for 24 hours before making a move to the coast. 

edit: then bounces down to the gulf coast. :lol: 

what a disaster. 

Jumps from southern Alabama to Western North Carolina to Southern Georgia in 3 hours. Ha, ha... err, NO.

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Say wha?? Now the past few days, it's been just the SS and NS not joining up (often because the NS had been too slow?)...but the SS has at least come in strong to start. But now the NAM makes the SS that weak that even a faster NS that we've needed just kicks it out? Haven't seen THAT one yet...lol

One of my fears all along was that the southern wave would trend weaker. It's done that all year. But I'm not going overboard based on the nam at range. 

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10 minutes ago, mappy said:

Yup, its a completely new solution. At least on the 12K. The 3K is a hot mess. 

Watch the stj crap out and this become another miller b lol 

doubt it but would be fitting. Whenever a wave was supposed to get under us the southern vort ended up non existent and all NS. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One of my fears all along was that the southern wave would trend weaker. It's done that all year. But I'm not going overboard based on the nam at range. 

Was gonna say...if it's just the NAM doing that and we haven't seen that solution spit out before now....perhaps it won't be an issue (now if we see any of the globals do it later...gulp...)

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Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

It’s slower...that seems like it might be a key...slower=more time for a phase?

Seems like that would make sense. It's what the EPS did and it had some favorable solutions that started late. I can look into that on the EPS 

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