Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Total precip: So yeah, probably white rain DC North, maybe a coating at best. Rates pretty weak sauce. Sucks since in January with cold temps we'd be looking at 3-5" I mean, it's certainly better than 18z, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I think this was mentioned by Mr Chill previously, but the upper trough axis swings through on Wednesday with some pretty amazing lapse rates, per the GFS. There would be convective snow bursts for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 47 minutes ago, Jebman said: There is an unusual electrical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico. It has produced 7,000 lightning strikes. I think that weather feature could be driving the models crazy. Yes, although it's actually near south Florida now. The wave on the polar front in ne AR is also very active with lightning strikes. These two features will gradually interact more during the formative stages of the coastal storm tomorrow night into Monday. I think the trend from now to storm time will be positive, but not sure if it will be a 3-6" type snowfall or more into the heavy range, all depends on how it phases. The intensity of phasing should overcome the marginal thickness aspects too, 537 dm looks a lot better when pressure falling rapidly than when a weak wave is sliding past. Anyway, one word to critics, just post your own ideas, if they're so good you won't have to worry about my ideas taking any of the attention you seek. I read your stuff, but maybe it's because I'm a positive sort of person. (look it up, we exist). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 26 minutes ago, high risk said: I think this was mentioned by Mr Chill previously, but the upper trough axis swings through on Wednesday with some pretty amazing lapse rates, per the GFS. There would be convective snow bursts for sure. LWX currently has Wednesday as mostly sunny for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Lol Hrpderps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Ukmet similar to gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Tonight was a complete failure. No progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: Tonight was a complete failure. No progress There was progress. One day closer to getting this winter out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Tonight was a complete failure. No progress I'm about ready to clock out. I'm so ****ing tired of this storm. With the model swings and all of this hoping we get A + B and then - C to get D. I'm tired. Put a bullet in between the eyes of this winter. I'm ready to move on. I'm waiting until 12z tomorrow before I self ban, but it's coming. I want off this ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Storm is taking shape slowly on radar loop https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Too darn warm. Need more cold air. Thats solely a factor of rates. Warmth is super shallow. Heavy precip will bring temps to the low 30s no problem. One thing we can't ignore at this point is all models are striping central va. Clearly the frontrunner for accums. That type of solution has shown up far more than anything else and that's the easy bet if we had to wager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Thats solely a factor of rates. Warmth is super shallow. Heavy precip will bring temps to the low 30s no problem. One thing we can't ignore at this point is all models are striping central va. Clearly the frontrunner for accums. That type of solution has shown up far more than anything else and that's the easy bet if we had to wager. Yup. 12z Illustrates this. Has moderate-heavy snow and temps are closer to freezing. 18z and 0z don't and are mid-upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Thats solely a factor of rates. Warmth is super shallow. Heavy precip will bring temps to the low 30s no problem. One thing we can't ignore at this point is all models are striping central va. Clearly the frontrunner for accums. That type of solution has shown up far more than anything else and that's the easy bet if we had to wager. Well this is encouraging. The concern was that sharp cutoff east of Richmond for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Euro is north through 24. TN rather than AL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Euro is north through 12. TN rather than AL... Lockstep with the GFS (for that hour, at least!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Problem last time was also lack of precip (despite snow shield being pretty far NW). Let's see how that is this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lockstep with the GFS (for that hour, at least!) Trough is ever so slightly sharper vs 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Meh. Well offshore at 48. Can't see precip but looks like overrunning though mid VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Maine ftw. Well, that's another winter down the drains. On to severe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 RGEM ensemble mean looks similar to 12z but maybe a little better. A lot of qpf is lost as rain, especially east of the bay. About 1/3 of members with at least 5 mm as snow near the cities. Central VA continues to look like the best spot in the region for a relatively big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 hours ago, Jebman said: There is an unusual electrical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico. It has produced 7,000 lightning strikes. I think that weather feature could be driving the models crazy. Looks like it's making it's way around FL and being drawn northward for a date with the soon to be developed coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 @cae will like the GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Well, we have the best consenus yet across guidance. This one is locking in and it's not including the corridor. Over the last few days the majority of runs has looks like tonights 0z run. Outliers are gone. I think this one is close to being locked if not locked already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Well, we have the best consenus yet across guidance. This one is locking in and it's not including the corridor. Over the last few days the majority of runs has looks like tonights 0z run. Outliers are gone. I think this one is close to being locked if not locked already. Euro still lacks the snow amounts for RVA region that other models have. NWS snow probabilities seem to favor Euro for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 41 minutes ago, Cobalt said: @cae will like the GEPS You made me look. Nice run, but we're getting a little too close for the GEPS to be useful. Its skill relative to the ops drops off more sharply than the GEFS when we get closer to game time. I think it's because of the greater dispersion in the ensemble. Once the REPS (RGEM ensemble) is in range, I pretty much stop looking at the GEPS. At some point I mght go back and look over old GEPS runs in hindsight. I think I was probably looking at the wrong things. I was looking at mean snowfall and the number of members with at least 0.1" qpf as snow. The first can be skewed by a few big hits, which most runs had, and the second can be skewed by a lot of 0.2" members like what we're looking at now. Given that it's March, it might have been more meaningful to look for members with at least 0.4" qpf. In tonight's run, 15/21 GEPS members give me at least 0.1" as snow. Only 5/21 give me at least 0.4". Even that is probably overdone for reasons given in the first paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 LWX has issued Winter Storm Warning for Augusta, Nelson, Eastern Highland, Western Highland, and Central Virginia Blue Ridge from 8pm Sunday to 2pm Monday for 3 to 6 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The 331am early morning HWO from LWX states that accumulating snowfall is possible Sunday night and Monday. Winter weather advisories may be required. This was issued in the eastern HWO for the counties east off the Blue Ridge as there is two HWOs issued by LWX for their CWAs. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=HWO&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The 3K about sums up winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 45 minutes ago, Interstate said: The 3K about sums up winter Yes, it has been a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 When the thread is dead, so is the threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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