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March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE


stormtracker

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2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

r/s line is in the vicinity of D.C., but some accumulation still.

1-3" just south of D.C.

Need to fall back on the GFS’ warm boundary layer bias because otherwise that’s all white rain.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is definitely an improvement vs 18z

It's better than 18z. And worse then 12z. I see things have settled. I know others are looking for trends but to me the consensus is south of us then a hook back into New England and the slight shifts in each model is just noise within that envelope. I see no sustained trend towards a big hit for us. If 6z or 12z moves that way I'll be all over it. I'm rooting for this. I'm just not seeing the trends I'd want to feel it's happening. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It's better than 18z. And worse then 12z. I see things have settled. I know others are looking for trends but to me the consensus is south of us then a hook back into New England and the slight shifts in each model is just noise within that envelope. I see no sustained trend towards a big hit for us. If 6z or 12z moves that way I'll be all over it. I'm rooting for this. I'm just not seeing the trends I'd want to feel it's happening. 

I agree...this has kept our interest and been crazy on the models but it’s just not quite there, many of us may see some white rain but I fear a slushy coating is gonna be the result for even the luckiest of us 

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1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

I’m just NW of Richmond proper and even I think it’s gonna be a close call. Hopefully more than white rain.

Looks like a full day of snow tv for us...a bit better for you because rates will be better. It is what it is.  Could be sunny and 70.  

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's better than 18z. And worse then 12z. I see things have settled. I know others are looking for trends but to me the consensus is south of us then a hook back into New England and the slight shifts in each model is just noise within that envelope. I see no sustained trend towards a big hit for us. If 6z or 12z moves that way I'll be all over it. I'm rooting for this. I'm just not seeing the trends I'd want to feel it's happening. 

I agree that's the most likely outcome, but there has been a clear trend in H5 with the GFS that continued at 00z.  Even though the surface looked like a blend of 12z and 18z, the upper air did not.  It's probaby close to settled as all models are starting to look similar, but I'm not sure how this plays out if that trend continues.

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